“History shapes generations, and generations shape history”

Did you know that famous authors of the book “The Fourth Turning”, Neil Howe and William Strauss, had predicted almost 25 years ago that the world/humanity would face giant crises and catastrophes by 2020? They indicated that a global terrorist group would blow up an aircraft, a pandemic would take over the world, and a financial crisis would dawn upon us. What led them to make such predictions, and how did they come true decades later?

Strauss and Howe have extensively studied the past 5oo years of American history. Based on their learnings and interpretations, they have postulated that ‘first, history shapes generations, and then generations shape histories’.

They argue that similar to the seasons of nature, there exist seasons of life, each involving new challenges and opportunities. They suggest that anticipation is power – implying that if one can anticipate the opportunities and challenges of upcoming seasons (of life), one can recognize patterns and predict future events and behaviours. What season an individual is born in shapes their cognitive processes, early experiences and future outcomes. How old one was when significant events (wars, pandemics, political and economic crises, etc.) hit says a lot about their psychological and behavioural processes. The Vietnam war is a significant example to explain this. Children born on the 31st of December before or at 11:59 pm were eventually dropped off from school and sent off to war. In contrast, those born on the 1st of January were laid off. Thus, the time and context of one’s birth and early upbringing play a crucial role in determining future life outcomes.

By tracing the significant events in American History, Strauss and Howe observed that massive landmark events took place every 80 to 90 years. For instance, World War I took place in the 1600s and approximately 80 years later, the American revolution took place. The Civil War happened around 80 years post that, and the Great Depression took place another 80-90 years after that. And we are currently 80 years ahead of the Great Depression, facing yet another crisis. But why does this happen? Why is a crisis dawning upon the world every 80 years? The idea is that the cycle of human affairs approximates the length of human life. They have suggested four turnings- high, awakening, unravelling and crisis, each marked by a profound shift in culture and society. They further suggested that every ‘crisis’ begins with a catalyst or triggering, reaches climax and ultimately leads to resolution. Example- The 2008 financial crisis can be considered a catalyst, and the pandemic, war, riots, and social unrest of 2020 and 2021 can be regarded as the climax.

An interesting observation here is that some generations are born during Awakening (high) and some during Fall (crisis), determining how their lives may turn out. People born during such a crisis or “fall” (Winter) may interpret the world differently, have different priorities and mental processes, possess distinct personality and emotional characteristics, etc. However, the end of a crisis leads to massive transformations and revolutions. For example, the World Bank, United Nations (UN), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) were introduced post facing the consequences of World War II; or the American Constitution was created after a long period of the Civil War. But this raises an interesting question - Why do we resort to finding solutions when we hit a crisis? Why do we wait until things get to the absolute worst before coming up with solutions? Why do we wait for ideal situations to unfold naturally and intervene only when the world hits rock bottom? It is one of the most crucial questions on humanity that we grapple with today. The observation that a crisis either ends humanity or leads to a breakthrough is an interesting one.

Additionally, from a social perspective, a crisis tends to unite everyone and lead to a sense of collectivism. In contrast, an awakening tends to release the individual and push them towards individualism and self-centeredness. As a result, the Silent Generation faces a hard time during Awakenings due to their high need to conform and belong. Gen-X was raised in Awakening, which is why they had more freedom, autonomy, and a space for expressing themselves. Considering that their parents were occupied with learning and growing themselves personally and professionally, the boomers raised themselves and became independent and cynical. They were individualists and focused heavily on self-development.

Therefore, understanding the seasons of history and life and their contextualization with different generations can help one understand and predict events. It can give us a better insight into the characteristics and uniqueness of each generation and how that impacts the world in general. It can help understand the ongoing behaviours regarding various social, economic and political trends. Understanding how seasons of life interplay with generational concepts and provide insights about the current and future world is imperative for the growth of self and others, as well as the nation.

?To know more about these insights, watch this exciting discussion with Neil Howe - https://youtu.be/lX1Csk2vn5A