Will Russian History Repeat Itself?

In July 1914 the “Autocrat of Russia”, Tsar Nicholas mobilized the Russian army to support Serbia against perceived threats from Austro-Hungary.??The mobilization was all about the Imperial destiny of the Russian Empire and the misguided belief of the Tsar that he was the protector of the Slavic nations of Europe. On August 1 1914, the German Empire declared war on Russia.??At first the mighty Russian army had some quick victories and stormed into East Prussia and attacked territories of Germany’s ally the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, the mighty Russia military soon proved to be a paper tiger and its offensives faltered and collapsed.??War weariness prevailed. There were many reasons for this including an incompetent Russian general staff that was beholden to the whims of one man – the Tsar - who made all decisions and who saw himself as a military expert, and the sycophantic corruption of elites who profited off the war. By the winter of 1916 / 1917 the Russian army was in tatters and was in full retreat.??Its logistics were so dismal that Russian soldiers often had one rifle for a platoon, had no winter uniforms and were starving.??Discontent of soldiers rose to dangerous levels which soon spread to the general population and riots across Russia ensued.??Even the exultations of the Russian Orthodox Church that the war was a holy and just war did not help improve the moral of the starving and soon to be revolutionary masses back in Russia. The mutiny of the Imperial garrison in Petrograd (St. Petersburg)??sparked the February Revolution that?undermined the?monarchy's authority. Eventually the Tsar and his son were left with no option but to abdicate. Imperial Russia imploded and a Russian Provisional government was formed which was powerless.??Anarchy reigned, the ex-Tsar was forced into internal exile in Yekaterinburg and was executed in July 1918.

On the war front there were nearly six million casualties who had died, were wounded or missing due to the actions of incompetent generals who had mobilized an army of disillusioned peasant soldiers who no longer wanted to fight the Tsar’s war. Most casualties were not the consequence of heroic battles but disease, starvation and the terrible impacts of winter on soldiers who were not only poorly armed but were also not supplied with winter uniforms.??The army that everyone in Europe had feared proved to impotent. The result was that by 1918 Russia was forced to seek a peace with the Central Powers and cede Imperial territories in Eastern Europe that included Poland, the Baltic States and Finland.??Instead of saving Serbia, the misguided Imperial vision of the “Russian Autocrat” destroyed Russia and saw newly independent nations rising on the ashes of its imperial ambitions.???

One has to ask the question – Does history repeat itself.??Maybe it does.

One can almost take the account above of the collapse of Imperial Russia, change the dates, and substitute the Tsar for Putin.??Will the winter of 2022/2023 see the collapse of the once feared Russian army which consists of unmotivated and ill equipped Russian rural-peasant “volunteers?”??Will the corruption of the war profiteering oligarchs manifest themselves with continuing logistic and supply failures because of the poor equipment that the Russian army has at hand? Will the uninspired and myopic military leadership of the new “Autocrat” result in a series of ongoing military setbacks and an eventual collapse of Russian forces in the Ukraine???Will the morally corrupt exaltations of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church save Mother Russia’s holy war?

It seems history might be repeating itself and things don’t look good for Russia.??The mothers of Russia and the nearly one million Russian men who have fled to avoid the draft will eventually fuel the rising discontent in Russia. When will the first “Petrograd” uprising occur??

In a recent Economist article (October 8th) the following observation was made.??“Ukraine’s military success is reshaping not just the war,??but also Russia.??I would have written that Russia’s military collapse is reshaping Russia. The war has proven that the Russian army is all bluster and no real substance,??that the Ukrainians do not share Putin’s vision of Russian led Pan-Slavism, and that Russia is running out of allies who can help it win.??The Russian Revolution of 1917 saw Russia’s total isolation and the loss of support from the allies in its fight against the Central Powers.??This week’s UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows how isolated Putin has become.??The Russian wolves are circling. How long will the 70-year-old bear be able to fend them off?