History will be made at the 2017 French Open
Tomorrow is the men’s final at the 2017 French Open, featuring 9 time champion Rafael Nadal taking on 2015 victor Stan Wawrinka. Many brackets filled out two weeks ago had exactly this matchup on the final Sunday (including mine), and both moved through the draw convincingly. In all sports, it’s a classic question: is it better to be well rested or battle tested? We will have an interesting case study tomorrow as Rafa, who has dropped fewer games (29) in this event than in any previous French Open and hasn’t lost a set, faces Stan, who outlasted the world number 1 Andy Murray in a five set marathon nearing the 5 hour mark in the previous round.
It’s an historic occasion for both players. Rafa, of course, is chasing La Decima, his 10th Roland Garros title. Nadal is one of the rarest champions in the history of the sport, and the greatest clay court player of all time. But Stan too is looking at history. If you ask a casual sports fan who has more major titles, Andy Murray or Stanislas Wawrinka, I’d wager most would say Andy. Not so. Both have three Slams on their resume, and Stan has a chance to move ahead of Murray in the total count with a win over Rafa. Overshadowed by the “decade of dominance” of the Big 4, and never even the best player from his own nation as long as Swiss countryman Roger Federer remains on tour, Stan has long been an afterthought at majors. With a win over Rafa tomorrow, I would argue that Wawrinka has quietly assembled the pieces of a Hall of Fame worthy career.
Rafa might seem the overwhelming favorite, but not so fast. In my own homeland, the big news in sport is the shock retirement of Big Game Bob (Stoops), the head football coach of the University of Oklahoma, who led his squads to more Big 12 titles (10) than home losses (9). Big Game Stan doesn’t roll off the tongue, but it couldn’t be more true. Wawrinka is 3-0 in Grand Slam finals, all against world number 1s (Rafa once and Djokovic twice). In all of those matches he was a big underdog too. But this is Rafa at the French Open. Only two men, Soderling in 2009 and Djokovic in 2015, have beat Nadal on these courts, and as my mother always reminds me, the best predictor of the future is the past. To that end, Rafael Nadal is 9-0 in French Open finals.
Yesterday we witnessed one of the most shocking Slam upsets of all time, with world number 47 Jelena Ostapenko taking her first career WTA title with her win over third seed Simona Halep. It’s always foolish to completely rule out the impossible. But in the women’s draw, the big names (Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka, Kvitova) were absent or otherwise hampered by a variety of extramural circumstances. Not to deny the achievement of Ostapenko, but this was an exceptional year in women’s tennis. On the men’s side, there is no bigger name than the King of Clay, El Toro de Mallorca, Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros. The Stanimal won’t go without a fight, but even he won’t be able to stop Rafa. My prediction: Nadal in 4 sets.