History of India as Super Power & How India can regain their lost glory

History of India as Super Power

India’s status as a historical superpower predates the Mughal and British empires, rooted in its economic dominance, sophisticated civilizations, extensive trade networks, and military prowess. Periods like the Maurya Empire (3rd century BCE), Gupta Empire (4th-6th century CE), and Mughal Empire (16th-17th centuries CE) highlight its global influence, with estimates suggesting India contributed 25-33% of world GDP at its peak, far surpassing contemporaries like China or Rome. This legacy reflects a blend of wealth, innovation, and strategic power that positioned India as a preeminent force in the ancient and medieval worlds.

1. Economic Power

a)????? Pre-Mughal Dominance: India’s economic supremacy is most evident during its “Golden Age” under the Gupta Empire (320-550 CE), often cited as the world’s largest economy. Economist Angus Maddison estimates India’s GDP at 33% of global output around 1 CE (Maurya era) and 24-28% during the Gupta period, dwarfing Rome’s 20% or China’s 26%. This wealth stemmed from fertile lands (e.g., Indo-Gangetic plains), advanced agriculture (e.g., rice, cotton), and artisanal production (e.g., textiles, metallurgy).

b)????? Mughal Prosperity: By the 16th-17th centuries under Mughal rule (1526-1858), India’s GDP was estimated at 25.1% of the world economy (Maddison, 2001), peaking at $90.75 billion in 1600 (in 1990 dollars). This era saw unparalleled prosperity, with Mughal emperors like Akbar and Shah Jahan amassing wealth through taxation, trade, and a centralized economy. Textiles (e.g., muslin), spices, and gems fueled this economic engine.

c)?????? Why It Mattered: India’s economic heft attracted traders and invaders alike—Persians, Greeks, Arabs—underscoring its role as a global commercial hub. Its decline began with colonial exploitation, reducing its share to 4% by 1947 (British exit).

2. Trade Networks

a)????? Ancient Maritime Power: India dominated Indian Ocean trade routes as early as the Indus Valley Civilization (3500-1800 BCE), exporting beads, cotton, and spices to Mesopotamia. By the Maurya period, ports like Tamralipti and Bharuch linked India to Southeast Asia, Arabia, and East Africa.

b)????? Roman and Silk Road Ties: The 1st century CE saw India as a linchpin in Rome’s spice and silk trade, with Pliny the Elder lamenting Rome’s “drain of gold” to India (up to 100 million sesterces annually). The Chola Empire (9th-13th centuries) later extended naval influence to Indonesia and Malaysia.

c)?????? Mughal Era: Mughal India’s trade flourished via the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, with Surat and Calicut as bustling entrep?ts. European powers (Portuguese, Dutch, British) vied for footholds, drawn by India’s wealth long before their dominance.

d)????? Significance: These networks made India a trade superpower, exporting goods and culture (e.g., Buddhism) while importing gold and silver, sustaining its economy for centuries.

3. Advanced Civilization

a)????? Indus Valley (3500-1800 BCE): One of the world’s earliest urban societies, with cities like Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro showcasing grid planning, drainage systems, and standardized weights—innovations rivaling Mesopotamia or Egypt. Its economy thrived on agriculture, crafts (e.g., bead-making), and trade.

b)????? Mauryan Advances (321-185 BCE): Under Ashoka, India pioneered governance (e.g., edicts on stone) and infrastructure (e.g., Grand Trunk Road precursor). Taxila and Nalanda universities drew scholars globally.

c)?????? Gupta Golden Age: Known for mathematics (zero, decimals by Aryabhata), astronomy (Brahmagupta), and medicine (Sushruta’s surgery), the Gupta era saw cultural and scientific peaks—e.g., iron pillar of Delhi (corrosion-resistant, 400 CE).

d)????? Mughal Sophistication: Architectural marvels (Taj Mahal), miniature art, and a cosmopolitan court blended Persian and Indian traditions, reflecting wealth and intellectual vitality.

Impact: These advancements underpinned India’s soft power, exporting ideas (e.g., numerals to Arabia) and sustaining economic leadership.

4. Military Prowess

a)????? Maurya Empire: Chandragupta Maurya’s army—600,000 infantry, 30,000 cavalry, 9,000 elephants (per Megasthenes)—conquered much of the subcontinent, defeating Seleucid forces (305 BCE). Ashoka’s later pacifism still rested on this might.

b)????? Gupta Empire: Smaller but effective armies repelled Huna invasions (5th century), with rulers like Samudragupta (“Napoleon of India”) expanding to the Deccan. Archery and metallurgy (e.g., wootz steel) gave technological edges.

c)?????? Mughal Might: Akbar’s forces (50,000 cavalry, artillery) unified northern India, using gunpowder (introduced via Mongols) to dominate. The Mughal navy, though limited, secured trade routes.

Significance: Military strength protected economic wealth and trade, projecting power across Asia—e.g., Mauryan influence reached Afghanistan, Mughal sway touched Central Asia.

5. Key Periods of Superpower Status

a)????? Indus Valley (3500-1800 BCE): Early economic and urban pioneer, though not an “empire” in the centralized sense; lasted ~1,700 years before climate-driven decline.

b)????? Maurya Empire (321-185 BCE): Unified subcontinent, peak under Ashoka; ~136 years. Economic zenith (33% global GDP) faded with fragmentation post-Ashoka.

c)?????? Gupta Empire (320-550 CE): Cultural and economic golden age; ~230 years. Huna invasions and internal decay ended it, but its legacy endured.

d)????? Chola Empire (9th-13th centuries): South Indian maritime superpower, controlling Southeast Asia trade; ~400 years. Declined with Pandya resurgence.

e)????? Mughal Empire (1526-1858): Economic peak (25% global GDP) under Akbar and Aurangzeb; ~332 years, though weakened post-1707 (Aurangzeb’s death) by Marathas and British.

Decline: British colonization (1858-1947) dismantled India’s economic primacy, exploiting resources (e.g., $45 trillion drained, Utsa Patnaik estimate) and reducing it to an agrarian supplier.

6. Why India Was a Superpower

a)????? Economic Scale: Consistently among the world’s richest—33% in 1 CE, 25% in 1600—driven by agriculture, crafts, and trade.

b)????? Cultural Influence: Spread Buddhism, Hinduism, and science (e.g., Arabic numerals), shaping Asia and beyond.

c)?????? Resilience: Multiple empires rose from the same soil, adapting to invaders (e.g., Mughals blending Persian-Indian styles) until colonial disruption.

d)????? Strategic Location: Central to Eurasian trade, bridging East and West.

7. Fall and Lessons

?? Causes of Decline: Internal divisions (post-Maurya, post-Gupta), failure to modernize (Mughals vs. European tech), and colonial exploitation (British draining wealth).

?? Modern Relevance: India’s historical superpower status informs its 2047 development goal—reclaiming economic might (e.g., $23 trillion GDP target) requires reviving innovation, trade, and unity lost to colonial rule.

India’s history as a superpower spans millennia, from the Indus Valley’s urban brilliance to the Mughal era’s economic dominance. The Maurya and Gupta empires showcased its ancient peak—33% of global wealth—while the Mughals sustained this legacy (25% in 1600), blending military might with trade and culture. Advanced civilizations, vast armies, and trade networks underpinned its status, only undone by internal strife and external conquest. This rich past sets a precedent for India’s modern ambitions, requiring a return to economic scale, technological leadership, and global influence to reclaim superpower stature by 2047.

Defining Period of India’s Downfall under British Rule

India’s downfall under British rule, spanning roughly from the mid-18th century to the mid-20th century, represents a dramatic reversal from its historical status as a superpower. The British East India Company’s (EIC) rise after 1757 unleashed a systematic exploitation that drained India’s wealth, dismantled its industries, and reduced it to an agrarian appendage of the British Empire. This period, particularly intensified between 1780 and 1860, saw India’s economy, society, and global standing collapse, with long-lasting repercussions evident by independence in 1947.

1. Expansion of British East India Company’s Political Power

a)????? Timeline and Mechanism: The EIC’s political ascendancy began with the Battle of Plassey (1757), granting it control over Bengal, India’s richest province. By 1818, after defeating the Marathas, the EIC dominated most of the subcontinent, transitioning from a trading entity to a territorial power.

b)????? Revenue Extraction: The EIC used Bengal’s land revenue—estimated at ￡3 million annually (1750s, equivalent to $500 million today)—to fund its operations. Historian Irfan Habib notes that this surplus was redirected to purchase Indian raw materials (cotton, silk, spices) and goods for export, bypassing traditional trade payments.

Impact: This marked the beginning of a unidirectional wealth flow. Instead of reinvesting in India, the EIC funneled profits to Britain, financing industrial growth there while starving India of capital.

2. Disruption of Bullion Inflows

a)????? Pre-Colonial Trade: Before 1757, India’s export of fine textiles, spices, and handicrafts attracted gold and silver bullion from Europe, Arabia, and Southeast Asia—estimated at 1-2% of its GDP annually (Maddison, 2001). This “bullion economy” sustained India’s wealth, with Mughal treasuries holding vast reserves (e.g., Shah Jahan’s Peacock Throne).

b)????? Colonial Shift: The EIC’s monopsony—buying Indian goods with Indian revenues—halted this inflow. By the 1800s, India became a net exporter of wealth, with bullion redirected to Britain or used to pay for British imports.

Consequence: Historian Romesh Dutt argues this “drain of wealth” totaled $45 trillion (in 2018 dollars, per Utsa Patnaik’s estimate, 1700-1947), crippling India’s monetary system and investment capacity.

3. Misuse of Land Revenue

a)????? Colonial Policy: The Permanent Settlement (1793) and subsequent land revenue systems extracted 50-60% of agricultural output (Habib, 1985), far exceeding Mughal rates (33%). Between 1765 and 1815, Bengal alone remitted ￡100 million to Britain (adjusted to modern value).

b)????? Expenditure: Funds were diverted to wars—e.g., Napoleonic Wars in Europe, Anglo-Mysore Wars, and Afghan campaigns—leaving scant resources for Indian development. Irrigation, roads, and education received minimal investment (e.g., less than 1% of revenue, Dutt, 1902).

c)?????? Contrast: Pre-British rulers like the Mughals reinvested surpluses into infrastructure (e.g., Grand Trunk Road) and patronage, fostering economic stability.

4. Economic Transformation (1780-1860)

a)????? Pre-Colonial Economy: In the 1750s, India was a manufacturing hub, exporting processed goods—fine cotton (Dacca muslin), silk, and steel—to Europe, Asia, and Africa, paid in bullion. It held 25-27% of global manufacturing output (Maddison, 2001).

b)????? Colonial Reversal: By the 1850s, within 80 years, India became a raw material supplier—cotton, opium, indigo—for Britain’s Industrial Revolution. British tariffs (e.g., 70-80% on Indian textiles) and free imports of British goods (e.g., Manchester cotton) destroyed local industries.

c)?????? Deindustrialization: Handloom weavers dropped from millions to thousands (e.g., Bengal’s weaver population halved by 1830s, per Bagchi, 1976). India’s share of world industrial output fell from 25% in 1750 to 2% by 1900.

5. Shift in Export Composition

a)????? 1750s: Exports were high-value—cotton textiles (muslin fetched 10 times raw cotton prices in Europe), silk, and spices—earning India its “workshop of the world” status. Trade balanced imports, enriching merchants and artisans.

b)????? 1850s: Raw materials dominated—raw cotton (for British mills), opium (forced on China via the Opium Wars), and indigo (for dyes). This shift, driven by colonial policies, turned India into a buyer of British manufactured goods (e.g., railways, textiles).

c)?????? Data Point: By 1850, raw cotton alone was 31% of exports, with opium at 20% (Chaudhuri, 1983), reflecting a colonial extraction economy.

6. Ruthless Exploitation and Societal Collapse

a)????? Economic Devastation: British economist Angus Maddison charts India’s global income share plummeting from 27% in 1700 (vs. Europe’s 23%) to 3% in 1950—a 90% drop. GDP per capita stagnated at $600 (1990 dollars) from 1750-1947, while Britain’s soared.

b)????? Famines: Colonial neglect and revenue demands triggered frequent famines—e.g., Bengal Famine (1770, 10 million dead), Great Famine (1876-78, 5.5 million), and 1943 Bengal Famine (3 million). Grain exports continued during starvation (e.g., 200,000 tons in 1877).

c)?????? Human Toll: Life expectancy fell to 23 years by 1900 (Davis, 2001), among the world’s lowest, vs. 45 in Britain. Malnutrition was rampant (60% of population undernourished, per 1930s surveys), and literacy lingered at 12% (1947) vs. 90% in Japan.

d)????? Mechanism: High taxes (e.g., 50% of peasant income), forced cash crops (indigo over food), and industrial collapse left India vulnerable, contrasting with pre-colonial resilience.

7. Broader Implications

a)????? Loss of Global Standing: India’s decline from a trade and manufacturing leader to a colonial supplier mirrored Britain’s rise—UK GDP grew 2-3% annually (1750-1850) on Indian wealth.

b)????? Cultural Erosion: Traditional knowledge (e.g., metallurgy, Ayurveda) withered under British education systems prioritizing clerks over artisans.

c)?????? Legacy: By 1947, India inherited a pauperized economy (GDP $250 billion, 1990 dollars), needing decades to recover its precolonial stature.

Why This Period Defines Downfall

a)????? Economic Drain: The “drain of wealth” (Naoroji, 1871) siphoned surpluses abroad, reversing India’s bullion-based prosperity.

b)????? Deindustrialization: From exporter of finished goods to raw material supplier, India lost its economic sovereignty in 80 years (1780-1860).

c)?????? Human Cost: Exploitation turned a thriving civilization into one of poverty and dependence, with metrics (life expectancy, literacy) plummeting.

Conclusion

India’s downfall under British rule, crystallized between 1757 and 1860, was a systematic unraveling of its superpower status. The EIC’s revenue grab halted bullion inflows, redirected wealth to Britain, and deindustrialized India, shifting it from a processed goods exporter to a raw material source. Land revenue funded wars, not development, while ruthless exploitation triggered famines, malnutrition, and illiteracy. India’s global income share crashed from 27% to 3% over two centuries, encapsulating a defining period of economic and societal collapse. This colonial legacy underscores the scale of recovery needed for India’s modern ambition to reclaim developed status by 2047.

India can draw inspiration from the remarkable recoveries of Japan, Germany, and South Korea, which rebuilt their economies and societies from the devastation of war to emerge as global powerhouses.

How India Can Regain Superpower Status or Become a Power in a Multipolar World

A superpower wields global influence, projecting its will through economic might, military strength, political leverage, and cultural impact. Historically, India held such stature (e.g., 27% of world GDP in 1700, Maddison, 2001), but British colonial rule reduced it to a shadow of its past. Today, in a multipolar world with powers like the U.S., China, and Russia, India—currently the 5th largest economy ($4 trillion GDP, 2023)—aims to reclaim prominence. Achieving this requires elevating its per capita GDP to $10,000-$15,000, strengthening its military, leveraging its population, optimizing its geography, and harnessing its resources.

Below is a detailed roadmap.

1. Economic Wealth

Current Status: India’s GDP ranks 5th globally at $4 trillion (IMF 2023), but its per capita GDP of $2,460 reflects low individual wealth, far below developed nations (e.g., U.S. $70,930). It trails the U.S. ($31 trillion) and China ($18 trillion).

Goal: Become the 3rd largest economy ($15-$20 trillion by 2047) with a per capita GDP of $10,000-$15,000, aligning with high-income status (World Bank threshold: $13,845+).

How to Achieve:

Sustained Growth: Maintain 7.8% annual real GDP growth (RBI, 2023), doubling GDP every 9 years—e.g., $8 trillion by 2034, $16 trillion by 2043. Historical precedent: South Korea’s 7.5% CAGR (1960-1990).

Investment: Raise investment-to-GDP ratio from 33.5% to 40% (World Bank, 2025) via public capex ($1 trillion infrastructure pipeline) and private ($100 billion annually).

Manufacturing: Boost industrial share from 13% to 25% of GDP (Economic Survey 2024-25) through schemes like PLI ($26 billion) and Make in India, targeting $1 trillion in exports.

Services: Double digital economy from $250 billion to $500 billion (e.g., IT, FinTech), leveraging global outsourcing dominance.

Why It Matters: Economic scale funds military, infrastructure, and soft power—e.g., U.S. GDP underpins its global hegemony.

2. Military Strength

Current Status: India ranks 4th in military strength (Global Firepower Index 2024) behind the U.S., Russia, and China, with:

Personnel: 1.45 million active troops, 1.15 million reserves, 2.5 million paramilitary—the world’s largest volunteer army.

Budget: $75 billion (FY 2025), 13.45% of government spending, highest sectoral allocation (Union Budget 2025).

Assets: 250+ warships, 2 aircraft carriers (INS Vikrant, Vikramaditya), 600+ combat aircraft, and nuclear capabilities (e.g., Agni-V ICBM, 6,000 km range).

Tech: Indigenous advances—e.g., Tejas fighter, BrahMos missiles (world’s fastest supersonic cruise missile).

Goal: Rival top-tier powers in deterrence and projection (e.g., blue-water navy, space warfare).

How to Achieve:

Modernization: Increase defense spending to 3% of GDP (from 2%)—$120 billion by 2030—focusing on drones, AI, and cyber warfare.

Self-Reliance: Raise indigenous production from 65% to 80% (e.g., $5 billion HAL contracts, 2024).

Global Reach: Expand naval presence in the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Quad exercises) and secure energy routes (e.g., Strait of Hormuz).

Nuclear Edge: Enhance triad (land, air, sea) capabilities to counter China’s 500+ warheads.

Why It Matters: Military might ensures security (e.g., against China, Pakistan) and influence—e.g., U.S. carrier fleets shape geopolitics.

3. Population

Current Status: India’s 1.43 billion people (UN 2023) make it the most populous nation, with a median age of 28—a demographic dividend (47% dependency ratio, World Bank 2023).

Challenge: Low education quality (e.g., 6.7 mean years of schooling, UNDP 2021) and employability (50% graduates jobless, India Skills Report 2024).

Goal: Transform population into a skilled, productive workforce akin to Japan (13.4 MYS).

How to Achieve:

Education Reform: Triple education spending to 6% of GDP (from 2.8%, 2023), targeting 100% literacy and 50% tertiary enrollment by 2047 (NEP 2020).

Skill Development: Train 150 million workers (Skill India) in tech, manufacturing, and services—e.g., AI, robotics.

Women’s Participation: Raise female labor force participation from 35.6% to 50% (World Bank, 2025) via childcare and equal pay.

Why It Matters: A skilled 700 million-strong workforce (by 2047) drives GDP—e.g., China’s labor boom fueled its rise.

4. Geography

Current Status: India’s 3.28 million sq.km. spans strategic Himalayan borders, a 7,500 km coastline, and proximity to Indo-Pacific trade routes (e.g., 90% of trade via sea).

Advantages: Controls access to the Indian Ocean, abuts energy-rich Middle East, and borders rising Asia.

Goal: Leverage location for economic and military dominance, akin to the U.S.’s Atlantic-Pacific span.

How to Achieve:

Maritime Power: Build a 500-ship navy (from 250+, 2024) to secure sea lanes and counter China’s String of Pearls.

Connectivity: Expand projects like Bharatmala (34,800 km highways) and Sagarmala (port upgrades) to link inland to coasts.

Regional Influence: Deepen ties with ASEAN, Africa via trade corridors (e.g., India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, 2023).

Why It Matters: Geography amplifies trade and defense—e.g., Britain’s island status enabled its empire.

5. Resources

Current Status: India has coal (4th largest reserves), iron ore, rare earths (e.g., 5% of global thorium), and renewables potential (e.g., 1,000 GW solar by 2030).

Challenge: Underutilized—e.g., rare earth mining lags China’s 60% global share (USGS 2023).

Goal: Become a resource and energy superpower like Saudi Arabia or Russia.

How to Achieve:

Resource Extraction: Invest $50 billion in mining (e.g., lithium, rare earths) and reduce import reliance (e.g., 80% oil imports, 2023).

Green Energy: Achieve 500 GW renewable capacity by 2030 (from 130 GW, 2023), cutting fossil fuel costs ($100 billion/year).

Tech Innovation: Lead in thorium reactors and hydrogen fuel, leveraging R&D (e.g., $10 billion budget push).

India’s freshwater resources—powered by the annual monsoon, an extensive river network, and the Himalayan watershed—constitute a critical natural advantage that has historically underpinned its prosperity and continues to offer immense potential. These assets provide water for agriculture, hydropower, industry, and domestic use, while also shaping India’s strategic leverage in South Asia. Leveraging them effectively could propel India toward developed status by 2047, enhancing its economic wealth, energy security, and regional influence.

Why It Matters: Resources fuel industry and exports—e.g., U.S. shale oil bolstered its economy.

6. Additional Factors: Political and Cultural Strength

Political Leverage:

Current: India’s democracy (largest globally) and non-aligned legacy give soft power, but its UNSC bid lags. There are issues as regards fractured politics in India which in turn is hampering reforms.

Goal: Secure a permanent UNSC seat and lead Global South (e.g., G20 2023 success).

Cultural Influence:

Current: Bollywood, yoga, and diaspora (38 million) spread soft power.

Goal: Rival Hollywood or K-pop—e.g., $100 billion cultural economy by 2047.

How: Invest in media, tourism (e.g., $50 billion Taj corridor plan), and education exports.

Roadmap to 2047

2030: $10 trillion GDP, 25% manufacturing share, 50% renewable energy.

2040: $15 trillion, top-tier navy, 40% tertiary education rate.

2047: $20-$23 trillion, $15,000 per capita, 3rd largest economy, global tech leader.

Conclusion

India can regain superpower status or emerge as a multipolar power by amplifying its economic wealth (7.8% growth to $20 trillion), military might (3% GDP spending), population (skilling 700 million), geography (Indo-Pacific dominance), and resources (green energy leader). Its historical legacy—25% of world GDP under Mughals—offers a blueprint: blend hard power (economy, military) with soft power (culture, diplomacy). Challenges—low per capita income, education gaps, resource underuse—demand urgent reforms. By 2047, India could rival the U.S. and China, shaping a multipolar world through sustained ambition and execution.

CA Harshad Shah, Mumbai [email protected]