Historical and Traditional Models Validate El Ni?o Presence in Somalia, Unleashing Century's Worst Floods: Destruction of Vital Bridges in Bardera and

Somalia, grappling with a myriad of crises stemming from climate shocks, the El Ni?o phenomenon, and the repercussions of the worst drought in decades, compounded by persistent conflict and insecurity, now finds itself confronted by an unprecedented century-defining flooding event. This catastrophic development has affected a staggering 1.7 million people, resulting in the displacement of 649,000 individuals—a sharp and distressing surge. The potential for an Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD)/cholera outbreak looms large, intensifying the already dire situation of rising food insecurity.

The conclusion of over two years of severe drought, which had pushed the nation to the brink of famine, has brought only limited relief to beleaguered families. Floods, widely regarded as the most severe in a century, have forced nearly half a million people from their homes, severely impeding efforts to rebuild livelihoods devastated by the preceding drought. Despite some marginal improvements, the current and projected levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition persist at alarming levels in Somalia.

In the current analysis period (August-September 2023), 3.7 million people, constituting 22% of the total analyzed population, find themselves in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 and higher), necessitating urgent humanitarian assistance. Of this total, 0.9 million (5%) are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), while 2.8 million (17%) face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Looking ahead to the projection period (October-December 2023), the numbers increase, with 4.3 million people, representing 25% of the total analyzed population, requiring urgent humanitarian assistance. Among them, over 1 million (6%) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 3.3 million (19%) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

The alarming increase in the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, from 3.7 million between August-September 2023 to 4.3 million between October to December 2023, is attributed to a combination of factors. These include the adverse impacts of El Ni?o-related heavy rains and flooding, coupled with the anticipated decline in the level of humanitarian assistance in the coming months due to funding constraints.

Disturbingly, approximately 1.5 million children under the age of five years face acute malnutrition between August 2023 and July 2024, encompassing the total acute malnutrition burden. Among them, 330,630 are at significant risk of severe malnutrition, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive and sustained humanitarian intervention in the face of this multifaceted crisis.

The impact of flooding in Somalia has reached alarming proportions, with the number of people displaced surging to nearly double within a week. Field response data indicates that approximately 649,000 individuals are now displaced, a stark contrast to the 334,800 recorded as of November 8th. The ramifications extend to over half a million more people, bringing the total number of those affected to about 1.7 million, up from 1.17 million just last week. Tragically, the death toll has risen to 41, including 12 children, with at least 13 more lives lost.

The World Food Programme has sounded a dire warning, highlighting the imminent threat to both livelihoods and lives. A staggering 4.3 million people, constituting a quarter of Somalia's population, are projected to face crisis-level hunger or worse by the year's end. The situation is exacerbated by the forecast of continued heavy rains in southern Somalia until November 21st, as reported by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre.

Compounding the crisis, suspected cases of Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD)/cholera are on the rise. Health Cluster data reveals that 12% of the 14,905 reported cases and 40 related deaths this year originated from the 29 districts affected by the current El Nino phenomenon. The anticipated increase in the case load, especially after the floodwaters recede, is alarming, with the current cholera case load already 56% above the three-year average.

Infrastructure has suffered severe blows, with roads, bridges, and airstrips damaged in multiple areas, disrupting the movement of people and supplies and causing a surge in the prices of essential commodities. In the Gedo region, the collapse of the Buurdhuubo bridge, a vital link between Gedo and major supply hubs, compounds the transportation challenges. Another bridge in Baardheere collapsed just a week ago.

The situation is further exacerbated by the expansion of flooding along the Juba river catchment area. Forecasts from the FAO-Somalia Water And Land Information Management project (SWALIM) indicate sustained river overflows and floods at Doolow and Luuq, exacerbating the already critical flooding at Baardheere and downstream areas. Along the Shabelle river, a sharp increase in water levels has triggered massive flooding, submerging up to 90% of Belet Weyne town. Projections suggest that the runoff will maintain current water levels in Belet Weyne, while flash floods are expected in Bulo Burto and surrounding areas. The gravity of the situation necessitates urgent and comprehensive humanitarian intervention to mitigate the unfolding crisis.