Historic Consumer Strength and Retail Ingenuity Will Help Industry Overcome Three Significant Challenges This Holiday Season
The holiday shopping season has begun, and the balance sheets of American consumers are in a very good place. Despite some significant challenges, we are anticipating perhaps the strongest holiday shopping season on record.
Though the pandemic is not yet in the rear view mirror, we are seeing meaningful signs of a much-welcomed return to normal behavior. More Americans are heading back to work and to school, embracing activities long on hold like socializing with friends and family, shopping in-store and taking trips for vacation or work.
Another significant milestone was the lifting of pandemic restrictions on foreign visitors to the United States on November 8. This is great news for our travel and leisure industries, as well as for retail: 85 percent of international visitors tell us that shopping is one of the key activities they engage in when coming to our country. Many of our cities around the country benefit from international travel and tourism. There's a high correlation between international tourists and retail sales, and this is a wonderful time of the year to welcome international travelers back.
This fall, NRF was invited to the UK and Europe to talk about the state of the retail industry and attend in-person events once again. At both the World Retail Congress event in London and Paris Retail Week, we enjoyed the opportunity to interact with people from all over the world about the state of the industry.
We are looking forward to hosting NRF’s annual Big Show this January at the newly renovated Javits Center in New York City. We have an exceptional list of speakers and exhibitors, and we encourage you to join us January 16-18.
As we size up this holiday season and beyond, the most important thing to note is the historic financial strength of American households.
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Household net worth, which increased by about $5 trillion in the first quarter, is at an all-time high, reflecting large gains in stock prices and home prices and a high savings rate.?Despite growing inflation concerns, consumer spending is currently far above pre-pandemic levels, as is GDP, thanks to unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies that have backstopped demand and put money into people’s wallets for nearly a year and a half.
This economic strength has translated into strong sales for the retail industry. U.S. retail sales grew almost 7 percent in 2020, the highest rate seen in over 20 years. NRF forecasts retail sales will grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent to more than $4.44 trillion in 2021.
But the road to full recovery has many formidable hurdles, and there are three issues we are heavily engaged in on behalf of our members:
NRF is continuing months-long work with our members by hosting meetings between retailers and experts to help the industry prepare for any eventuality should the ETS proceed. Most recently, NRF created an interactive compliance guide for employers to assess their readiness, and we are hosting compliance assistance webinars for small-midsize retailers.
The retail industry’s response to the pandemic is a true success story .?Retailers have invested heavily in adapting their businesses to changing consumer?behavior and the realities of doing business in this challenging environment. We remain optimistic for a record holiday season and continued growth into 2022.
Head of Asset Protection & Safety | Brand Protection | Corporate Security | Fraud | Investigations | Shrink | ORC | Duty of Care | Risk Assessments | Mentor | Business Advisor | Keynote Speaker
3 年Good observations for the "State of Retail," but I'd add a 4th formidable hurdle retailers must contend with - Organized Retail Crime (ORC). These orchestrated, brazen, criminals are hurting businesses (and and not just in California). Customers and employees are more and more afraid . . . and at risk. As the Voice of Retail, NRF needs to continue fighting for legislative reform and our own SOS -- to save our shrink.
CEO/ Founder @bensgarden
3 年So you’re hosting a conference at the Javits Center in New York City… arguably the most expensive location in the world to host an event for most retailers. How are you planning to Help Main St., America make their way through this post pandemic experience? Your post is astute and you make a clear vision, but it seems misaligned with what the humble retailer needs.??