Hindsight energy policy: The reality of our political class today
After a major news leak to the BBC earlier this week, the prime minister of the UK Rishi Sunak was forced to hold a major policy press conference on how he intends to amend the details of the government’s plans to meet the UK’s net zero commitments.
Not surprisingly, since the press conference there has been a lot of hindsight commentating from various talking heads. Some vilify the PM for reneging on previous government commitments—like pushing back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 to 2035. Others whole heartedly support the PM’s new position as reinforcement of their belief that net zero ambitions are an unnecessary tax on businesses and consumers.
I will leave the political policy commentary on the press conference to others more qualified. For me, as someone enthusiastically interested in the details of energy transition, this was less about hindsight commentary and more about hindsight energy policy.
For some time, I have questioned policy ambitions such as phasing out petrol and diesel cars in favor of EVs and transitioning to new technologies like heat pumps to heat our houses. Simply put, the policies have just not been credible. We are just seven years away from the 2030 deadline on cars. At the macro level of time and innovation evolution, seven years is barely a blink of an eye. And as a London resident, I am absolutely certain there was never a snowball’s chance in hell that we would manage to lay down the infrastructure that would allow my fellow city dwellers and me to sell our cars and replace them with EVs. Whether I want to is immaterial, given the state of technology and the glacial pace of infrastructure build-out. No need for hindsight to understand this.
And my particular bugbear has been heat pumps. I live on a typical suburban street of semidetached houses built circa 1920-ish. A few years ago, a neighbour bravely took the leap to replace his existing gas boiler with a heat pump. The cost to him personally was about ￡20k. To this, he had to factor in the alterations required to upgrade wall insulation on a house built in 1920–not to mention radiators and windows. This was not an investment for the every day. No matter how many times the government declares 600,000 heats pumps will be installed between January and December of 2023, when we consider what this means in terms of personal household costs the declaration becomes, to put it politely, a flat out fairy tale. No hindsight required.
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So, back to hindsight policy. With the benefit of hindsight, our PM was able to declare in his press briefing that the government had not been completely truthful in recent years in making commitments it absolutely knew could and would never be met. There was simply no practical, credible plan to support government ambition. So to admit this now is, in fact, policy by hindsight. That’s not exactly how policy is supposed to work.
Politics aside, I welcome the reality of some of Sunak’s statements. In particular, he was spot on in articulating the need for infrastructure investment and build-out across the entire energy value chain. Without it, our ambitions will continue to move out of reach and our commitments are nothing more than chatter.
Given the unprecedented evidence we’re currently experiencing around the world that our carbon carelessness will alter our climate and our quality of life, it is time to recognise that policy, ambitions and commitments must be proactive, practical and achievable if we are to deliver a net zero energy system by any year in this century.
As a member of the steering committee for the inaugural Global Energy Transition (GET) Congress in 2024, I will drive for honest dialogue, actionable commitments and achievable goals. We will not adjust the truth in hindsight to accommodate what we already know.
#energy #energytransition #energyindustry #energypolicy #netzero #netzeroambitions #netzerotargets
Great note Arthur Hanna ! The debate has to shift from energy transition to a combination of energy availability + energy security + energy transition ! Some of the factors driving the first 2 may counter the energy transition forces. This in effect is going to be the major challenge facing countries while they transition. Build in the pricing of all the above, the world of energy, politics and daily life is in for a rollercoaster ride ! #energy #energytransition #energysecurity #energyavailbility #netzero
This is where the rubber hits the road and things become real! Having watch country file on marine micro plastics last week, it's not just energy that needs a long term view! Whatever car one drives, assuming we still all do, rubber is on the road! and what happens to all that wear and tear of the tyres. As they said before lead what removed from petrol, verges could almost be minde for lead. The same accounts for tyre rubber, me thinks.
Partner at Partners in Performance
1 年As usual, very good points Arthur. What, in your view, is needed to speed up the infrastructure build required for a full (and inevitable) transition to EVs?
Aspiring Takumi
1 年First Arthur, much thanks for keeping the long form post going in the current milieu of snippets and xweets. A thought after reading your post Well more of a philosophical point or rather a lament. A decrease in long-term carbon emissions is a fine, whatever goal, but only insofar as humans are still increasing energy consumption every year, as this is what is required of a progressive society, in which everyone gets to eat and live like a Wall Street Banker or McKinsey partner. To this effect why is the debate not starting with expanding Natural Gas and Nuclear and then investing time and creating incentives for less extractive sources to prove their ability to obey the laws of physics required to maintain (and grow) the electrical distribution grid? Sadly the loudest wonky Greta girlies in this debate seem to think that selling a "do with less you glutton, so we can make this deadline" message is a winner.
As always Arthur really insightfuls thoughts