Hillsborough County continues to shift under Italy on Standardized Day 22 while Florida has made a small deflection (due to Miami-Dade) on Day 23

The gap between per capita cases on the same standardized day of the #Covid19 outbreak in Hillsborough County compared to Italy on Day 22 continues to widen with a difference of 23 cases per 100K in each area, increasing each of the last 6 days. In addition, there is some good news in Florida as Miami-Dade area undergoes a small deflection on Day 23, driving Florida under the Italy curve for the first time in the outbreak following Standardized Day 1.

It should be emphasized that social distancing measures in Hillsborough County began to phase in with more intensity approximately 14 days before this bend in the curve - in other words, these efforts may be working. For example, March 23, 2020 would have been the first day back for students in the School District of Hillsborough County but they did not return. In addition, early restaurant and night club closing was underway. Will be interesting to see if an even sharper bend in the slope is observed starting around 4/11/20 - two weeks after the county Safer-at-Home mandate. In addition, we could see even further positive downward pressure on the Hillsborough County and Florida slope around 4/14/20 - 2 weeks after Gov. DeSantis issued a statewide stay at home order on 4/1/20.

NYC

Unfortunately, NYC is still in really bad shape with 7.5Xs the cases as Italy on Standardized Day 27. There is nothing else like this in the world.