Highlights from our October Short-Term Energy Outlook and annual Winter Fuels Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration
EIA provides energy statistics and analyses for sound policy making, efficient markets, and public education.
We expect most U.S. households, on average, will pay about the same to heat their homes as they did last winter. A notable exception: We expect Midwestern homes heated by natural gas will pay about 11% more on average for heat than last winter.
In our 2024 Winter Fuels Outlook, we forecast a colder winter, leading to more energy consumption for heat. With energy prices similar to or slightly lower than last winter, we expect spending for many households will be about the same as last winter.
Other highlights from our Short-Term Energy Outlook include:
Brent crude oil spot price: We expect the Brent crude oil spot price will average about $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 and about $78 per barrel in 2025, both lower than EIA’s September forecast. Note that our revised forecast for crude oil prices also contributed to revisions in our price forecasts for distillate fuels, gasoline, and other petroleum products, which are reflected in the STEO table of notable revisions.
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U.S. oil production: We expect U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, a record high. We had previously expected domestic crude oil production would average 13.7 million barrels per day next year but revised the production forecast lower largely due to our expectation of lower crude oil prices.
Electricity consumption: We expect 2% more U.S. electricity consumption this year than in 2023 and a further 2% growth in 2025. Increased electricity consumption through 2025 is led by the industrial sector, as planned battery and semiconductor chip manufacturing comes online. In the commercial sector, electricity demand from data centers in some regions contributes to the forecast for greater electricity demand.