High Performance Characteristics: Rating the 2024 F1 championship contenders

I’m hesitant to say it out loud as I don’t want to jinx it, but we may have four teams in the battle for the championship before long… FOUR!? I cannot remember the last time four teams were fighting for podiums, let alone wins.

With Red Bull Racing, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all in the mix at the moment, driver skill will start making a difference in the championship standings very soon.

What does it take to win races? Purely based on the car that they’re in, at the moment we have 8 potential race winners competing for the top step: Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez, Charles LeClerc, Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton.

As a thought experiment, I’ve decided to use my own research as a measuring stick to predict which drivers are most likely to win races this season. In my research, I’ve found seven characteristics that seem to be stable predictors of sustainable high performance:

1. Talent
2. Drive
3. Risk taking ability
4. Emotion regulation
5. Internal locus of control
6. Cognitive empathy
7. Adaptability

Which drivers stand out most on each skill?

In terms of raw talent I have to call out Verstappen and Hamilton. These two jumped in an F1 car and were fast from the get-go. Having said that, every single driver on the grid, even the more controversial ones that some may feel don’t deserve their seat, has talent. You don’t make it to F1 (anymore) if you don’t know how to drive.

Speaking of drive, this is an 8-way tie. None of these drivers lack intrinsic motivation. Nuff said.

When it comes to risk taking, I have to give it up for Norris. The man knows he finally has a race winning car, and is leaving no stone (or strategy) unturned to bring in the trophies. More so than the others, he seems to be willing to do whatever it takes.

Emotion regulation has to go to Piastri. He seems unfazed by pretty much anything and everything. This steady and unwavering calmness may become his biggest asset, and could prove valuable once he gains a bit more experience. Sometimes getting angry pays off, though. Lewis Hamilton always seemed to get better when he got angry, and adversity seemed to fuel him. Whether that is still the case right now remains to be seen, as he hasn’t been in a race winning car for over two seasons. ?

Locus of control is a bit trickier. An internal locus of control refers to the belief that we have control over the events and outcomes in our lives through our own actions and decisions. People with a strong internal locus of control tend to take responsibility for their actions, and are more likely to take initiative to reach their goals.

The drivers that come to mind here are Verstappen, LeClerc, and Sainz. Verstappen has never shied away from being proactive in reaching his goals. He’s always been clear about what he can and cannot control. He has expertly controlled the controllables to bring him immense success.

LeClerc and Sainz deserve to be mentioned for navigating the (excuse my Italian) shitshow that was Ferrari for quite few years. Without an internal locus of control, I think they might have just given up. They stuck with it though, continuously focusing on what was inside their own circle of influence, and apart from a pretty disastrous #CanadianGP, they seem to be firmly back in the mix.

Cognitive empathy is the ability to understand another person's mental state. It involves recognizing and comprehending the emotions and thoughts of others without necessarily feeling those emotions ourselves. This form of empathy is crucial for performance, as it allows us to predict and interpret the behavior and reactions of others.

I actually want to give this one to Fernando Alonso, but unfortunately he is not in contention at the moment. *cue collective sigh of disappointment because we would all LOVE to have him back in the mix*

This is a close call between Verstappen and Hamilton. Cognitive empathy is especially important in wheel-to-wheel battles, because it allows you to predict your opponent’s next move. On a good day, Hamilton is one of the best at wheel-to-wheel racing. It hasn’t been a good day for Hamilton in a very long time though, which is why this one goes to Verstappen.

Verstappen has always been a do-or-die driver. He knows where to put his car, how to attack, and mainly: he knows that his opponents know he won’t yield. We would almost forget how good he is at hunting down the competition, because he’s been so dominant that there wasn’t really any competition to speak of. Now that the fight is on, I look forward to watching him battle it out again.

Lastly, when it comes to adaptability, there’s really only one name to mention here.

Verstappen again.

The one thing that is consistently mentioned about Max Verstappen is that he is good in any car. The RB20 has had its share of challenges, the most recent being its kerb-riding ability. Verstappen is consistently able to drive around these issues and win races. It’s still a race winning car, and he wouldn’t be able to win races without one, but when it comes to maximizing opportunity and adapting to changing and challenging circumstances, he pips everyone.

Based on this incredibly objective, not-at-all-biased and fully randomized and controlled experiment, my prediction is that Max Verstappen will win the 2024 driver's championship.

It may not be as dominant as it was in 2024, but it will be all the more exciting to watch!