The High Grand Falls Dam Could Extinguish Communities Downstream

By Dr Paul Matiku

Kenya is at a critical decision point. The High Grand Falls Dam (HGFD) promises to deliver electricity, irrigation, and economic growth – aspirations shared by all. But at what cost? If the current design proceeds unchanged, this project threatens to devastate the communities and ecosystems it claims to uplift.

Nature Kenya, backed by science, warns that the HGFD must be redesigned to prioritize human survival, ecological integrity, and climate resilience. This is not a call to halt progress but a plea to ensure that development enhances rather than destroys the lives of those who depend on the Tana River Delta.

The Tana River Delta is a vital lifeline. Designated as a Ramsar Site – a wetland of international importance – it supports agriculture, fisheries, and livestock for millions. Its health depends on the natural flow of water and silt from upstream.

However, the HGFD, in its current form, poses a threat to this delicate balance. Without mechanisms for silt release, the Delta may become infertile, sink below sea level, and face exposure to saltwater intrusion – not speculation, but scientific certainty. Case studies from other major dams around the world confirm this risk.

Farmland will be wiped out, freshwater ecosystems will collapse, and communities will be displaced. This is not progress; it is a recipe for disaster.

Kenya has committed to the Global Biodiversity Framework, which requires integrating biodiversity into development. Targets 2 and 8 emphasize ecosystem restoration and reducing the impacts of climate change and development on biodiversity.

Yet, the HGFD blatantly contradicts these commitments. Disrupting the Delta’s natural flood cycle and altering water availability directly undermine Kenya’s pledge to protect its natural heritage. If Kenya fails to uphold these commitments, it risks international scrutiny and funding setbacks.

Flood management is a significant oversight. The dam’s design lacks key safeguards to regulate water flow, increasing the risk of endangering severe shortages during reservoir filling and catastrophic flooding from unregulated releases. As Nature Kenya proposed, A secondary storage dam could help mitigate these risks and ensure stable water flow downstream. This is not merely an environmental necessity but a moral imperative. Thousands of lives depend on the river’s natural rhythms, and their survival cannot be an afterthought.

Fish migration is another critical yet often overlooked issue. The dam’s towering walls will obstruct migratory species, such as eels, which are vital to the Delta’s ecology and local fisheries. Without fish migration, fisheries will collapse, impacting both biodiversity and livelihoods. Modern dam designs incorporate fish ladders and bypass systems to address this. Why should the HGFD be any different? Ignoring this issue is shortsighted and a betrayal of the communities that rely on these resources.

Water allocation is a ticking time bomb. The Tana River is already severely strained, and the HGFD could push it beyond its breaking point. Without a clear water allocation plan, the river’s flow may drop below the recommended ecological limit of 60 cubic metres per second at Garsen – a threshold essential for sustaining agriculture, fisheries, and wildlife. Statistical data shows that water demand in the Tana River Basin is increasing. How will HGFD ensure that downstream communities, agriculture, and wildlife are not left without water? Without a solution, this project is a blueprint for crisis.

The HGFD’s potential to transform lives is undeniable, but sustainable development must be inclusive. The current Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) fails to address inter-basin water transfers and long-term cumulative impacts. Without a revised ESIA, critical risks remain unexamined. Revising the ESIA, engaging downstream communities, and implementing a balanced water management plan are not optional but essential in leading the conversation. Their voices and knowledge of these communities must guide the project rather than being silenced by it.

International best practices, such as those outlined by the World Commission on Dams, stress the necessity of maintaining ecological flows, ensuring public participation, and mitigating environmental impacts. By disregarding these principles, the HGFD risks becoming a cautionary tale rather than a benchmark for sustainable development. Successful projects worldwide have proven that development and sustainability can coexist. Why is HGFD ignoring these principles instead of learning from them?

Kenya’s natural heritage is irreplaceable. The HGFD is more than a project; it is a legacy. But a legacy for whom? If it proceeds as planned, it will be a legacy of loss – destroyed ecosystems, displaced communities, and extinguished futures.

I urge the government, financiers, and developers to heed Nature Kenya's and other stakeholders' warnings. Redesign the HGFD with ecological and social safeguards. Ensure it becomes a model of sustainable development, not a monument to short-sightedness.

The time to act is now. Let us build a prosperous, fair, and resilient Kenya and create a legacy that protects people, nature, and the future. The High Grand Falls Dam must empower communities, not erase them. Anything less is a betrayal of our shared responsibility to this nation and its people.

Dr Paul Matiku is the Executive Director of Nature Kenya – The East Africa Natural History Society

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