Hiding in School: A Recession-Proof Strategy after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Recessions don’t last forever. As sure as they will come, they will also go.

Things are bad enough that the Fed has lowered interest rates, the government is spending trillions to keep the economy going, and joblessness has spiked.

One tactic to be recession-proof is to hide from recession. And hiding can take two forms.

The first is to go back to, or stay in, school.

The second is to get yourself into a recession-proof industry.

Let’s look at the school option here.

Hide in School

School is always an option.

Whether it’s a world-class university in another state, the community college around the corner, or an online degree program that you can access from your laptop while wearing your pajamas, there are options everywhere, for everyone, and for any budget. The beauty of the hide-in-school option is that while you’re hiding, you’re also building—building skills that you can use when the economy recovers.

Education should always be part of your ongoing career development, but it can double as your full-time refuge when times are tough.

Because more and more education is moving online, going to school is easier now than it’s ever been in the entire course of human history.

In 2016, I finished a Master’s in Negotiation, Conflict Resolution, and Peacebuilding that I did entirely online. I live in Texas and the school was in California.

Who cares?

For years, that hasn't been an issue.

Stay in School

How can you be recession-proof if you are in school and on the verge of graduation?

Well, the best predictor of how your career will play out is if you can graduate into a strong economy. And if that means delaying graduation by a few years, by all means, do it.

The main reasons is something called "unemployment scarring."

If you don’t graduate into a job — if you end up working for low wages just to make ends meet while you’re waiting for a good job to come around — you haven’t just made things harder for yourself right now, you’ve actually made things harder for yourself for the rest of your life.

There is a very tragic phenomenon called unemployment scarring, which refers to the fact that taking a low-paying job when you’re young will reduce your pay for the entire rest of your career. Your starting point is low, so even with yearly raises, you’ll still make far less money than you would have if you had started out in a well-paying job.

The longer you’re unemployed, the deeper the scarring will be.

Let’s say you’re 22, you’ve just graduated from a four-year program, and things are tough.

The job market’s horrible, you’re stuck waiting tables and so are your friends, even that one overachiever who double-majored in computer engineering and business.

You know it’s going to be a few years before anything better comes up, and by then you’ll have unemployment scarring written all over you.

Is this you? Then go to grad school. Lock yourself up in the ivory tower for a couple more years, then come out fresh as a daisy, with a sparkling new degree. When you re-enter the job market, instead of having a dusty Bachelor’s degree and two years of bagging groceries on your resume, you’ve got a Bachelor’s and a brand-spanking-new Master’s degree.

If your graduate program is fully funded, you might even make more money being a student than you would working a menial job — all the while building your skills and sidestepping unemployment scarring. I received full funding to get a Master’s in Applied Economics, because they needed someone who would be willing to go through and translate all the personal articles and scores of rolls of microfilm owned by a famous Austrian economist, who published some of his most important works from the 1920s to the 1940s.

Whatever they want from you, if it means getting paid to get a degree, you have nothing to lose — especially in a weak economy. PhD programs are usually fully funded, and you almost always have the option of pulling the ripcord and leaving them early with just a Master’s degree. That gives you some flexibility in terms of when you enter the job market, so you can time it just right.

Actually, if you’re 22, recently graduated, and mopping floors because the economy stinks, you’ve already waited longer than you should have. The time to decide on the stay-in-school option was when you were 21 and starting your senior year of college.

Most graduate programs have application deadlines in the fall or winter for the next year.

If the economic omens are bad, that’s when you want to apply for that Master’s degree, and avoid even one year of unemployment.

Because unemployment scarring is horrible.

Go Back to School

School is an easy option if you’re young, single, and childless.

No one is depending on you, so the loss of income for a few years is more manageable.

School is a tougher option if you’re a mid-career professional with a family.

If that describes you, you’ve got to have some serious savings that you’re willing to burn through. Otherwise, you might need to have a spouse who can be the primary earner for awhile. Failing that, hiding out in school is probably a nonstarter for you as a way to recession-proof your life. Digging in, building, and investing are probably far better options for you.

School becomes an easier option again once you’re an empty nester.

The kids are out of the house, you’ve got fewer people relying on you, and suddenly school is feasible.

A lot of 50- and 60-somethings have a block when it comes to going back to school. It feels beneath them or embarrassing somehow. But school is not just for young people anymore. I know a guy who got a golden handshake from his company when he was in his 50s, and took the opportunity to go back to school all the way up to a PhD.

My great-aunt did her Bachelor’s degree when she was 57, and a Master’s degree when she was 61!

She continued working until she was 84.

Going back to school when you’re older is a great way to reinvent yourself, rebrand yourself, and show that, in terms of energy and ambition and drive, you’re still young at heart.

As long as you have valuable skills, no one is going to care when you got them.

Plus, online degree programs make it easy to go back to school without having to leave the house and neighborhood where you’ve put down roots.

Lemonade Out of Lemons

Consider school as a way to make lemonade out of lemons.

You can use the time when your opportunity costs are low to add to your professional background and improve your long-term career trajectory. It's a much better strategy than being a victim to long-term unemployment scarring.

Recession-Proof Book

This article includes some content from Jason Schenker's book Recession-Proof: How to Survive and Thrive in an Economic Downturn, which was released in February 2016. The book has been a No. 1 Best Seller on Amazon.

This book can be ordered at Recession-Proof.

Jason Schenker is one of the world's leading futurists. He is the Chairman of The Futurist Institute and the President of Prestige Economics.

Jason is also an instructor for LinkedIn Learning.

Tags: #Disruption, #Technology, #Innovation, #LinkedInLearning, #Business, #Finance, #Economy, #Economics, #Coronavirus, #COVID19, #Jobs, #Work, #OnlineEducation #Leadership, #Negotiation, #Strategy, #Recession, #Education