The Hidden Metric That Predicts Employee Turnover Before It Happens

The Warning Sign Most Leaders Miss

It’s a story that plays out in companies everywhere.

A top performer—the one everyone counts on, the one who always delivers—walks into their manager’s office and gives their two weeks’ notice.

No complaints. No big warning signs. Just, “I’ve accepted another offer. My last day is in two weeks.”

Their manager is blindsided. They run through the usual checklist in their head.

• Performance? Solid.
• Engagement? They showed up to meetings, contributed ideas, hit their goals.
• Culture fit? No issues. Got along with the team.

So what happened?

When the manager asks, the answer is something they weren’t expecting.

“I just can’t do it anymore. I haven’t taken a real break in over a year. Every time I try, I feel guilty. It never feels like the right time. And honestly? I look at leadership, and none of you ever take time off either. I realized if I stay, this is my life. And I don’t want that.”

That right there is the quiet part most companies don’t talk about.

When people feel like they can’t step away, when they believe work will suffer if they’re gone, when they see a culture where no one actually takes time off—eventually, they stop waiting for a break.

They just leave.

And by the time a leader realizes what’s happening, it’s already too late.

The Hidden Warning Signs in Your PTO Data

Most companies track revenue, productivity, and engagement. But few measure how much rest their employees actually take.

Ask yourself:

• How much PTO is actually being used vs. just sitting there?
• How much parental leave goes untouched?
• How many employees take the bare minimum time off, even when they have more available?

These numbers tell a bigger story about your culture than you might think.

When people don’t take time off, it’s not because they don’t need it. It’s because they don’t feel like they can.

And when that happens, the clock starts ticking.

The Real Cost of a “Hard Work” Culture

For years, managers have been conditioned to see unused PTO as a good thing. A sign of dedication, commitment, and strong work ethic.

But what’s actually happening?

• People feel guilty for taking time off, worrying they’ll let the team down.
• They’re afraid stepping away will make them seem less committed.
• They see their leaders grinding non-stop and assume that’s the expectation.
• Their workload is too overwhelming to even consider a break.

This is how burnout creeps in. Slowly, quietly. And then one day, that high performer decides they’ve had enough.

And here’s the kicker: They’re not quitting for more money.

They’re quitting for a better life.

How to Spot the Problem Before It’s Too Late

If you want to predict turnover before it happens, start tracking these key metrics:

?? PTO Utilization Rate – What percentage of available PTO is actually being used? (If it’s under 75%, you have a problem.)

?? Parental Leave Usage – Are employees taking full advantage of their benefits, or skipping them due to pressure?

?? End-of-Year PTO Rollover – How much paid time is left on the table every year? If people are losing PTO, that’s a cultural failure, not a financial win.

?? Managerial PTO Trends – Are your leaders taking time off? If not, they’re setting an expectation—whether they mean to or not.

If these numbers are low, people aren’t just skipping vacations. They’re slowly burning out.

What Leaders Can Do to Fix This

Fixing this isn’t about just encouraging people to take vacations. It’s about creating a culture where rest isn’t just allowed—it’s expected.

Here’s where to start:

1. Lead by example – If managers and executives aren’t taking time off, neither will their teams. Leadership sets the tone.
2. Make PTO part of performance reviews – If someone hasn’t taken a vacation all year, ask them why. Make it clear that rest is a priority.
3. Stop glorifying overwork – If the hardest workers are the ones who never take breaks, your culture is reinforcing burnout. Shift the narrative.
4. Fix the workload problem – If employees can’t take time off because their job is too demanding, PTO isn’t the issue—staffing and delegation are.
5. Change the messaging – The best companies don’t just offer paid leave. They expect people to use it.

?? Cold Hard Truth

If your employees don’t feel safe taking time off, they don’t feel safe in your culture. And when safety is gone, loyalty is next.

Your Leadership Challenge

Take 10 minutes this week and look at your team’s PTO usage.

• Who hasn’t taken a vacation in the last year?
• Who consistently leaves PTO unused?
• Who hesitates to step away, even when they clearly need it?

Then ask them why.

The answers will tell you more about your culture than any engagement survey ever could.

And if the numbers scare you? That’s your sign to make a change—before your best people decide to make one for you.

If you’re serious about building a culture that keeps top talent, let’s talk. Schedule a call and let’s figure out how to make your workplace one where people actually want to stay.

Big thanks to Paul Sullivan for championing this issue. His insights on leadership, fatherhood, and workplace culture are shaping a better future for employees everywhere.