? Heuristic of the Day: Positive Outcome Bias

What makes Eva think she has the magic touch? What allows you to open a small home goods store during difficult economic times? What inspires you to apply to top Ivy League schools despite the slim odds?

Positive Outcome Bias is the human tendency to think that their actions are going to produce better outcomes than they practically can. Even in bleak situations, people are inclined to think that when they do something, outcomes will turn out better than is likely,?simply because of their inherent over-optimism.

This impairment in judgment can cause humans to miscalculate whether or not they should take a risk or a chance, since they assume that they are more likely to accomplish a better outcome than their peers. This is exactly why people play the lottery. There is no smart reason to play with the odds being so low, but despite this, they do so anyway and end up losing money.

One feature of the Positive Outcome Bias is the figurative distance people place between themselves and “other” people when thinking of the likelihood of certain events occurring. This makes it difficult to eliminate. Thoughts along the lines of “this will never happen to me” might be a sign the Positive Outcome Bias is occurring.

For this reason, it can help to picture an event happening to oneself or to a close friend or family member. This might reduce the Positive Outcome Bias by providing a more realistic or easily imaginable perspective.?

Read more about Positive Outcome Bias at the Heuristics Science Insitute.

#Behavioralscience #Behavioralinsights #pyschology #cognitivescience #positivity?