? Heuristic of the Day: Certainty Effect

Well I sure hope that wasn’t a fixed raffle. Someone would have some explaining to do…

We prefer certainty to “what ifs.” We will choose the definite option and avoid drops to probabilities, even if the drop is very small. When choosing, we tend to choose an absolute small win rather than take a chance of winning more.?

An innate desire for certain outcomes is human nature. A sense of uncertainty about future outcomes generates a strong threat or alert response in our limbic system. When we are unable to predict the outcome of a situation, an alert tells our brain to pay more attention.

Slight ambiguity or unknown outcomes can signal brain feedback that generates a threat response. Our brains avoid uncertainty because it causes a sense of pain, while certain rewards come with satisfaction.?

While Certainty Effect is evolutionary – we like to avoid any risks at all – it can also cause sub-optimal outcomes. Having all the facts and evidence is ideal, but in real-life scenarios, it is quite uncommon. Since most of our difficult decisions are made with some uncertainty involved, it is important to learn how to hack the Certainty Effect.

Start small and make little changes that allow a healthy amount of uncertainty into your life. Pushing yourself into new, and slightly uncomfortable situations will help you take on new opportunities.

Read more about Certainty Effect at the Heuristics Science Insitute.

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