Hermès is up, but can they sustain it?

Yes, their market cap is creeping up on LVMH, but let’s not act like they’re invincible. Their whole model is built on scarcity—controlled production, limited availability, and a clientele that thrives on exclusivity. But what happens when that ultra-rich customer base starts shifting priorities?

• Luxury is aging. Gen Z and young Millennials are the future, and they don’t just want a bag—they want an experience, a brand story, and something accessible enough to flex. Hermès doesn’t cater to that.

• China is unpredictable. The market that’s been fueling luxury for years is getting shaky. Economic slowdowns, shifting consumer behavior, and government crackdowns on wealth displays? That’s a risk for a brand that thrives on high-net-worth flex culture.

What could flip the script? If Hermès over-expands (unlikely) or if another brand cracks the code on making exclusivity feel fresh and Gen Z-relevant.

LVMH: The Empire Has Cracks, But It’s Still The Empire

A 1% revenue dip? That’s a headline, not a real problem. But a 17% drop in operating income? That’s pressure. Their model is built on diversification, but diversification only works if somebody is winning at all times. Right now, even LV is feeling sluggish, Dior is holding steady, and brands like Fendi and Givenchy aren’t exactly carrying weight.

• Their strength? The ability to pivot. LVMH can take a hit because they’ve got 80 brands to shuffle. They just need to reallocate resources, push their strongest players, and find the next cultural moment to dominate (think Pharrell at LV, but on steroids).
• The weak spot? Overexposure. At some point, people start questioning real luxury versus mass luxury. If the market shifts towards true exclusivity again, brands like Hermès will keep eating into their lead.

What could flip the script? A game-changing acquisition (think an emerging luxury disruptor or even a brand from outside their usual scope) or a massive cultural reset in luxury consumer behavior.

Kering: The One Fighting for Its Life

Let’s be honest—Kering is in trouble.

• Gucci ain’t hitting. The post-Michele era is looking mid at best. The designs aren’t groundbreaking, the cultural moment is missing, and people just aren’t moved. They need a brand-defining moment to pull them back to relevance.
• No strong Plan B. Unlike LVMH, which has Dior and LV, and unlike Hermès, which is built like a vault, Kering doesn’t have another mega-brand to carry it. Saint Laurent? It’s solid but not Gucci-level. Bottega Veneta? Cult-loved, but niche. Balenciaga? Still in brand rehab.
• The financial moves scream desperation. Selling off assets before earnings is a red flag. That’s not a power move, that’s patchwork before a storm.

What could flip the script? If Gucci finally figures itself out, OR if Kering makes a big, bold acquisition that brings fresh energy into the mix. They need a shake-up—badly.

So What’s About to Pop Off?

• Hermès will keep riding high—for now. But if the ultra-wealthy consumer base starts shifting, they’ll feel it fast.
• LVMH will bounce back because they have too many options to fail. They just need a new cultural wave to capitalize on.
• Kering is at a crossroads. They either pull a miracle turnaround for Gucci, acquire something major, or keep sinking.

The biggest X-factor? The global economy. If high-net-worth individuals start spending differently, the luxury game will have to evolve in real-time. And the brands that move with the culture instead of relying on legacy? They’re the ones who’ll survive the shake-up.