Here's what to know about the economy heading into 2025 — and other happenings in the world of work

Here's what to know about the economy heading into 2025 — and other happenings in the world of work

Welcome back to The Work Shift, a weekly newsletter that keeps you informed about the economy, labor market and evolving world of work through data-driven insights. Click subscribe to be notified of future editions.

This week, we’ll start to see signs of how the economy could shift in 2025. “All eyes are on the labor market,” financial advisor Andy Wang explained. The December jobs report — the key focus of this week’s economic calendar — lands Friday.

Payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000, according to Bloomberg estimates. That’s down from November’s 227,000 jobs, but in line with the average of the last six months. Meanwhile the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, relatively low by historical standards.?

“A strong report could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting rates,” Wang shared. The Fed is “walking a tightrope, trying to ensure the job market doesn’t slow too dramatically while also hoping to keep inflation from roaring back,” market analyst Paul La Monica explained. “Right now, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates two more times in 2025,” he continued, but steady job growth could change that picture — and boost the possibility of a soft landing.?

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s last policy setting meeting are also expected on Wednesday. These “might reveal clues about their stance on inflation and rate cuts,” Wang said. He also noted that markets are closed on Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter. “This rare timing could amplify volatility” heading into Friday’s jobs report.

Catch up on other headlines from the last 7 days.

  • Jobless claims fell to an eight-month low at the end of 2024, according to new Labor Department data. First-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 9,000 to 211,000 for the week ending Dec. 28, while continuing claims fell to a three-month low. The figures suggest employers are retaining workers and indicates the labor market remains resilient. ??Rob Sacks
  • Minimum wage increased in 21 states on Jan. 1, meaning millions of workers have already seen a raise this year. Inflation pushed more states to require a $15 an hour minimum wage, including Illinois and Delaware. Minimums are even higher in Connecticut, California and Washington at over $16. The federal minimum wage is significantly lower at $7.25. ??Rachel Cromidas
  • Housing woes linger into 2025. The new year has yet to bring two long-awaited developments in the housing market: lower mortgage rates and increased inventory. In fact, rates on 30-year loans inched up to almost 7% at the end of 2024, closing the year near a six-month high. While there are more homes for sale, experts note much of that supply is stale, with nearly 55% of the properties sitting on the market for over 60 days. ??Melissa Cantor
  • A major winter storm has been bringing heavy snow and crippling ice across the U.S. this weekend, disrupting travel, schools and businesses. More than 60 million Americans from the central Plains to the mid-Atlantic are under winter weather alerts. About 7,400 flights into and out of the U.S. were delayed and about 1,700 were canceled as of Sunday. ??Rob Sacks
  • About half of U.S. workers didn’t use all their paid time off in 2024. What’s more? One-third of professionals didn’t take a vacation at all, according to recent research from Eagle Hill Consulting. To avoid this in 2025, experts recommend taking advantage by strategically planning PTO around holidays including Memorial Day, the Fourth of July and Labor Day. ??Rachel Cromidas

Take a closer look at recent trending topics — and engage with meaningful conversations happening on LinkedIn.

Americans' top New Year's goal

  • Americans are focused on their wallets this year. While most Americans didn’t make any resolutions for 2025, the most common resolution among those who did is to save money. Just over a quarter of Americans are prioritizing their financial wellness, according to a new survey from YouGov. Beyond that, the most popular resolutions included improving one’s physical health and “being happy.”
  • A separate survey conducted by Statista aligns with these findings: 21% of Americans reported they resolved to save more money in 2025, making it the most popular resolution, followed by wellness-related goals including eating healthier, exercising more and losing weight.?
  • Financial wellness reporter Adriana Morga shared the best way for people to accomplish their financial goals this year is to “know what you’re saving for, whether it’s a home or a dream vacation.” Then, “budget smarter” by actively tracking spending and adjusting habits as needed, paying down high-interest debt and setting up automatic transfers to “make saving effortless.”

Where the role of AI is increasing

  • Artificial intelligence is primed to continue changing the way we work in 2025 — and larger companies may already be doing more with artificial intelligence than smaller businesses. Just over half of workers at companies with over 1,000 employees have seen the role of AI in their workplace increase in the past year, according to the findings of LinkedIn's latest Workforce Confidence survey.
  • In comparison, 47% of workers at mid-market companies (201-1,000 employees) and 45% of workers at businesses with fewer than 201 employees have seen AI take on a larger role where they work this year. Research from ADP suggests that larger companies are more likely to have the infrastructure to support new tech initiatives and help employees upskill. Amanda Byrne, a tech professional, commented her company offers training on how to leverage AI on the job along with the opportunity to attend relevant conferences.?
  • For those without such options? “Be curious, adopt and adapt,” Byrne said. Tips she’s picked up through employer-sponsored upskilling include “observing AI’s impact on your specific sector” by keeping up with news and asking colleagues questions, and then experimenting. “Try using AI wherever it might help,” she said, which can initially look like generating meeting summaries or streamline emails.

Get ready for the week by seeing what’s coming up.

Tuesday, January 7:

  • The Institute for Supply Management will release its monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index, which tracks if the non-manufacturing sector is expanding. It is an indicator of economic health.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey for November, which measures job vacancies across industries.

Wednesday, January 8:

  • The Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its last policy-setting meeting. The minutes can potentially provide insight into future monetary policy.

Thursday, January 9:

  • The U.S. Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims for the previous week. The report, a proxy for layoffs, tracks the number of people filing for unemployment benefits.

Friday, January 10:

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December jobs report. The monthly release tracks the unemployment rate and how many jobs were added to the economy.
  • The University of Michigan will release its preliminary reading of January’s Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures how Americans feel about current and future economic conditions.


neil torino

Lead Brand Ambassador/Head of Resume Screening/Business Development Representative at BRUNS-PAK Data Center Solutions

1 个月

Very informative and interest provoking for the future.

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David Doney, CPA CIA MBA

Chief Audit Executive & SOX Leader

1 个月

On average, Biden has the lowest unemployment rate and the highest real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wages among the last 11 presidents. CBO reported Americans across the income spectrum had more purchasing power in 2023 than 2019 pre-pandemic because incomes had cumulatively outgrown inflation. If you start in Q4 '19, wages are up 27% vs. 22% for inflation. Americans also had the highest real net worth across the wealth spectrum in 2022 under Biden due to big home price and stock market gains, plus pandemic stimulus and savings. We're off that peak now, but way above 2019. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1316124&rn=538

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Steve Bullock

Principal Strategist & Founder at FASTFORWARD Consulting Awarded Brand Builder / Creative Translator / Growth Accelerator Former Ogilvy, TM/McCann, and Tombras Group

1 个月

Agree with me - maybe - but I believe the Fed and in particular, Mr. Powell, are dithering and telegraphing an insidious message of uncertainty to Americans. We are indecisive AF and everyone feels it. That's a big energetic in the equation of growing demand and willingness to invest. Look at the last 2 months of the market; cold feet give people cold feet.

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Street news?

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Cary Gluf

Getting Your Projects Out of the Ground!

1 个月

Why do all the 'experts' have to 'predict' every single report, before it comes out? So they can validate themselves and get everybody all excited when it doesn't match their prediction? Then the report just gets revised the next month, when nobody is paying attention. So many words about nothing.

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