Here's the thing.

If there is one thing I have learned in 20 years in real estate, it’s that no-one knows what the market will do. Yet, there are ‘experts’ everywhere. A guilty pleasure of mine is reading feuding comments online between those who have obviously just bought, and those doomsdayers who have been renting their home for the past 10 years.

Last night at 8:45pm as I was turning in (don’t judge), I received a text from a client with a link to an article predicting the imminent property market crash. Firstly, thanks for the cheery bedtime message and secondly I have read that article many times before...yawn.

What has become apparent is that the ‘crash’ that we were supposed to have from COVID hasn’t happened...why? There has been very little panic selling. It’s obvious that our governments are hell bent on avoiding a bloodbath in the property market. Interestingly, the talk of possible stamp duty cuts or abolishment flared up again this week. While I feel it’s unlikely to happen right now, this would be a game changer for the market. It’s true interest rates can’t go much lower, but stamp duty represents an enormous barrier for property activity, and if that changed it would probably eclipse any recent quantitative easing.

The one part of the market that has crashed is the rental market. The number of vacant properties combined with job losses has meant rents for many types of properties have dropped by 20%. The reality is, the rental market was soft before this happened so the COVID thing really just forced the issue. Investors, take note.

So next time you are at a dinner party (admittedly that may be a while) and an expert lays down their certain view on what’s coming, remember this newsletter.

It’s weird, my primary goal this year was to be less judgy...true story...as a result I now just find myself saying less.

Shout out to our very own Alex Myers who has made two great sales this week and has some excellent stock coming soon.

Until next week,

David