"Herd Immunity" and the Coronavirus
At last the Government has followed the lead of the rest of the world, changed tack and is now trying to stop the spread of Coronavirus. The initial strategy of trying to flatten the peak and extend the period in order that the NHS might cope, whilst building up “herd immunity” amongst the wider population, would have put the lives of thousands of older and sick people at risk. Some medical experts estimated as many as 250,000 deaths. Even now the Chief Medical Officer suggests that 20,000 deaths "would be a good outcome". Good for who and what? The economy or the people or both? The death rate in China is falling off after only 3,237 deaths to date. Compare their population and the measures they are taking to ours. Let’s hope this change of tack by Government is not too little: too late.
Stopping the spread will save lives and is the best we can do until a vaccine is available. To quote Andrew Toye who responded to my comment on Libdem Voice: “The “Herd Immunity” idea, of allowing the virus to infect the majority of the fit and healthy, was something so insanely reckless that even Dr Strangelove would not have considered”.
In 2004 Dominic Cummings, the advisor to the Prime Minister, was running a small think tank and below is a quote from an article by Harry Lambert in the New Statesman on his thoughts on demographic change at the time:
“In Cummings' eyes, the EU is on the road to demographic doom – a subject the FT explored last week, "By 2050," he writes, "the unfunded pension commitments of Britain will be merely 5% of GDP, but 70% for Italy, 105% for France and 110% for Germany. The economic consequences of these pension obligations are enormous: an 8% fall in real wages by 2030, a 13% fall by 2050; a rise in total taxes on wages from about 40% now to about 50% by 2030 and 70% by 2050."
“By the middle of this century, barring the privatisation of pensions,” he concludes, forebodingly, “there will be a relative fall in living standards for Europeans of about 40%.””
Let us not forget that older people helped to build the quality of life we all enjoy, brought us into this world, continue to contribute in a variety of ways and give us all hope for the future and a happy retirement. For the past twenty years I have been advocating increasing the State Pension in line with the rest of Europe in order to lift older people out of poverty and reduce demand upon the NHS. 4/5th of the expenditure of the NHS goes on older people with a correlation between income and demand upon the NHS. ￡19.6 billion is spent by the NHS on treating malnutrition amongst older people. There is a fully costed analysis of the cost savings to be achieved by lifting older people out of poverty, not to mention the improved quality of life, on my linkedin page.
Any civilisation can be judged by how it looks after its older and sick people. Australia and many other Countries are prioritising the help to those most at risk. Surely Britain must do the same and before it is too late.