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mahBY THE NUMBER$

03/01/21 Edition

1.    TWO MONTHS IN - The S&P 500 has gained +1.7% YTD (total return) through Friday 2/26/21. The stock index has set 10 all-time closing highs this year, including 8 record closes since President Joe Biden took office on Wednesday 1/20/21. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research). 

2.    TECH STOCKS - The NASDAQ Composite has gained +2.5% YTD (total return) through Friday 2/26/21, after gaining +44.9% (total return) in 2020 and gaining +36.7% (total return) in 2019. The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: BTN Research). 

3.    MORE THAN HALF - The split between “up” stocks and “down” stocks in the S&P 500 based upon YTD performance through last Friday 2/26/21 is 59% “up” and 41% “down” (source: S&P 500). 

4.    RECORD LOW SET A YEAR AGO - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 1.46% on Friday 2/26/21. The all-time record low close for the 10-year note was 0.50% set on 3/09/20. 10-year notes have been traded in the USA since 1790, i.e., 231 years of trading (source: Treasury Department).  

5.    SMALLER HOMES - The average size of a single-family home built in the United States in 2019 was 2,509 square feet, the 4th consecutive year that the national average size has declined (source: Census Bureau).   

6.    PANDEMIC IMPACT - Total state tax revenue, i.e., a combination of state income tax, corporate state income tax and state sales tax, increased in 22 states but declined in 28 states over the period April-to-December 2020 compared to the same 9 months from 2019. Idaho experienced the greatest gain (up +10.5%) while Alaska suffered the largest drop (off 43%) (source: Urban Institute’s State and Local Finance Initiative).  

7.    WHERE? - The average single-family home in the USA has appreciated +39.0% over the 5 years ending 12/31/20. Homes in Idaho (+82.5%) have experienced the greatest growth in value while homes in North Dakota (+14.1%) have seen the least percentage increase in value (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).  

8.    HIGHEST NUMBERS EVER - Mortgage debt ($10.04 trillion), student loan debt ($1.56 trillion) and auto loan debt ($1.37 trillion) reached all-time record highs as of 12/31/20 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York). 

9.    QUITE A FINANCIAL STORM - 19 of the largest US banks will participate in the Federal Reserve’s stress test this year. The annual analysis models the banks’ ability to function during a hypothetical recession that includes a 10.75% unemployment rate, a 55% drop in stock prices and a 4% decline in the size of the US economy (source: Federal Reserve).

10.  ACCURATE? - The government surveys 60,000 households each month in order to estimate our nation’s unemployment rate, i.e., 60,000 households out of a grand total of 125.8 million households. That means data collected from 1 out of every 2,097 households is the source of our jobless rate (source: Department of Labor).  

11.  NO PROGRESS IN A DOZEN YEARS - US “life expectancy at birth” for calendar year 2020 that was reported on 2/18/21 was 77.8 years, the same “life expectancy at birth” that was originally reported by the US on 12/09/10 for calendar year 2008 (source: National Vital Statistics Reports).  

12.  NEED LESS SPACE - 278 executives surveyed in August 2020 anticipate they will reduce their office space footprint by an average of 30% when their current leases come up for renewal. Those surveyed report that a successful “work from home” experience during the pandemic has decreased their need for daily office space (source: McKinsey Global Institute). 

13.  WHAT THEY GET FOR WHAT THEY DO - The government payment to a hospital caring for a Medicare-eligible patient who has been diagnosed with COVID-19 has been increased by +20% over traditional inpatient reimbursement through Medicare. This additional payment will be in effect until the end of the public health emergency caused by the pandemic (source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).  

14.  BIG PROMISE - The European Union (27 European countries) implemented in 2013 its “Youth Guarantee” program which ensures any person under the age of 25 will receive a “good quality” job, an apprenticeship or continued education within 4 months of finishing his/her schooling or after being laid off (source: EU). 

15.  BACK-TO-BACK - The 2000 New York Yankees baseball team was the last major league team to repeat as World Series champs, a feat the Los Angeles Dodgers will attempt to duplicate in 2021 (source: MLB).  

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Written and Copyrighted ? 2021 Michael A. Higley. All rights reserved. Email [email protected] for information. 

                                                          Past performance is not indicative of future results.