Help Required On The Eastern Front. “It’s Above You.” Why Boeing Went Boing. Top #AI Trends. Plus More! #206

Gruezi! I’m Adrian, welcome.

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1?? Help Required On The Eastern Front

Ukraine is out of ammo. Russia is on the move.

“If Ukraine loses to Russia, that would be a step change for Europe and Nato. Where do our strategic priorities really lie?”

That’s a senior and anonymous European official in the FT.

The US’s cripplingly delayed Ukraine aid package heads back to Congress, but the damage from that delay is already being seen on the battlefield.

Headlines like this are popping up:

• Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. (BBC)
• The cost of letting Russia win. (ISW)
• Could Ukraine lose this war? (LA Times)

Commitment vs. Action. While Western nations have pledged robust support for Ukraine, actual aid delivery has encountered significant delays. The gap between promises and action not only impacts the battlefield but also sends mixed signals to international markets and analysts.

The Escalation Dilemma. Western restraint is driven by a toxic mix of fear of a nuclear-armed Russia, and corporate unhappiness at higher energy costs and market closures. Businesses wants business back.

Economic Interests and Global Stability. The conflict’s impact on global oil and food prices and the potential for Russian retaliation are of particular concern.

On-the-Ground Realities and Broader Implications. The immediate challenges faced by Ukraine — including a shortage of military supplies and the potential for significant territorial losses—could redefine Eastern European geopolitics.

TL;DR? Russia needs to be kicked out of Ukraine.

• For NATO and its member states? Credibility and deterrence are at stake.
• For businesses? The security architecture that they rely on for stability and predictability in their operations and investments doesn’t come without cost.

??Western fear of escalation could hand Putin a historic victory.

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2?? How Ukraine Changed War For The Pentagon

The lessons of cut-price conflict? Just look up.

Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch has a great thread – “Just Look Up” – on three lessons the US Army has learned from the Ukraine conflict:

1. No Phones: An otherwise undetectable Apache helicopter was spotted because the pilot’s iPhone was moving at 120mph across a desert. Enemy drones can loiter and strike based on phone signals.
2. Asymmetric Financial Warfare: A $1,500 drone can destroy a multimillion-dollar fighter jet by simply dropping a grenade.
3. Shrink HQs: Traditional command posts and visible satellite dishes on US vehicles are easy targets. Field HQs need to shrink.

?? America’s future fighters will be robots.

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3?? A Candid Chinese View of Vladimir Putin

Beijing analysts are split on the Ukraine war.

The elderly gent in the video above is Wang Xiangsui, a retired Chinese Air Force colonel. He’s a hawk:

“China and Russia have to become unbeatable opponents of America before they can be its most respected friends.”

Not everyone agrees.

Feng Yujun is a Chinese professor and Russia expert, and – you might be surprised to learn – an outspoken critic of Russia’s leadership.

He wrote “Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine” in The Economist this week.

Readers of Sinification would already be familiar with his robust views:

• “Russia has become a second-rate country, which is in no position to protect China from the turbulences of international politics.
• “Moreover, China is in no need of such a big brother or little brother.
• “Russia is ... a fickle and interest-driven partner, which will be more than happy to shift its allegiances at the next given opportunity.”

When it comes to who decides what to do in China, there’s no room for debate. But when it comes to what China should do, there are many spaces for argument and those that remain open are instructive.

“Political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.”

??The experts might disagree, but China is helping Russia re-tool for war.

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4???How Boeing Went Boing

Out-sourced. Off-shored. Off the rails.

“What Really Happened to Boeing?”

Steve Randy Waldman has a great essay on how Boeing fell apart. It reaches back twenty years.

The essence of it? A CEO trying to navigate the complexity of a giga-corporation, put out political fires and make shareholders happy.

The methods – outsourcing, offshoring, performance measurement.

The problem?

“Complex human institutions are their own realities, whose most important characteristics subsist in habits and relationships and invisibly distributed skills.”

This is what Waldman means:

• “Performance in highly collaborative processes may be hard to measure and easy to game.
• “Canning supposed underperformers and rewarding ‘your best’ might in practice lead you to shed your best and reward the cunning and disloyal.
• “The mere exercise of ranking performance might undercut trust between employees, hobbling productive collaboration.”

Organisations are fragile and easily broken. This is not to say they cannot be reformed, but our cures depend on our comprehension.

Until we can quantify “soft” information as easily as “hard,” these kinds of stories will keep repeating themselves.

We all have tricks – heuristics in management speak – that help us operate successfully.

Educational, social and cultural experiences smooth collaboration with others. Often these embed unfair advantages. Sometimes – as at Boeing – they make failure unavoidable.

??James C Scott’s Seeing Like A State was an inspiration for Waldman’s piece.

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5?? Four Things For the Future of #AI

Big Tech. Big bucks. Plus more.

Stanford’s blockbuster State of AI Report is out.

1. Big Tech Dominates AI Development: Industry leads in producing frontier AI research and notable machine learning models, significantly outpacing academia.
2. Costs Are Escalating: The costs of developing state-of-the-art AI models, like OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google’s Gemini Ultra, have reached unprecedented levels, highlighting the escalating financial barrier to AI development.
3. The US Is Global AI Leader: The US continues to lead in developing top AI models and AI patents. ??????
4. Surge in Generative AI Investment: Despite a decline in private AI investment, funding for generative AI is up nearly 8x from last year.

??The State of AI in 13 Charts.

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6?? Chip Producing Is Moving

Silicon is getting a new home in South East Asia.

??How geopolitics is reshaping chip manufacturing.

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7?? Sarajevo Street Dog News

Teddy got a haircut.

This newsletter is not about to degenerate into dog content, but seeing a street dog with a smart new haircut might be the tiny lift your weekend needs.

???If you’re in Switzerland or nearby France, this is where Teddy came from.

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If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!

Best,

Adrian