Is Helene Next for the Gulf of Mexico? Potential Tropical Development in the Western Caribbean

Industrial Info Resources reports further on Helene Lashing Southeast After Making Landfall in Florida Helene weakened to a tropical storm today, but it remains a dangerous system with winds as strong as 60 miles per hour as it moves over the southeast and southern Appalachians, bringing life-threatening flooding and massive power outages. Helene made landfall Thursday night along the Big Bend region of the Florida coast as a Category 4 hurricane with winds as strong as 140 miles per hour. It quickly moved across Georgia and is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley later today and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles, mainly to the east of the center, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches, the NHC said. “This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians,” the NHC said.

Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. latest update Key Points - Max wind speed increased to 110 mph - Landfall expected tonight along Florida's Big Bend region - Tornado watches extend from Florida to South Carolina At 1 PM CT, Hurricane Helene is moving north-northeast at 16 mph, located 230 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Maximum sustained winds are 110 mph; further intensification is forecast prior to landfall. A summary of the watches and warnings is available on the?NHC site. . Forecast guidance continues to show landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, Florida this evening. That being noted, it’s best not to focus on a single landfall point as Helene’s coastal impacts will be experienced for hundreds of miles inland, across the Ohio Valley, and into the central Plains. Severe weather, including tornadoes, extends north into the Carolinas tomorrow. Storm surge and associated rainfall will bring a high risk of flooding across most of the Florida panhandle and the western half of Georgia. Because of Helene’s rapid speed, rainfall forecasts have been reduced to 8-12” across the southeast U.S. with isolated totals up to 20”. Storm surge will reach up to 20 feet in the Big Bend region of Florida.

This morning Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. reported that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine to Tropical Storm Helene. The system is located about 380 miles SSW of Key West, FL, and is moving northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph; tropical storm warnings, hurricane watches, and storm surge watches have been issued for portions of the west coast of Florida, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba. A combination of Hurricane Hunter recon data along with 1-km resolution satellite imagery led the NHC to this decision. At this time, convection is limited to the northern and eastern extent of Helene. This is courtesy of strong southwesterly upper-level winds; this shear pattern is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours and will be favorable as it approached the Florida coast. Intensification will be fueled by very warm sea surface temperatures over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent analysis shows a very warm extent of the Gulf loop current that is under Helene’s forecast track.

Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. recently reported that Over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the risk of tropical development over the western Caribbean to 40% over the next two days and 80% over the next five days. Invest 97L is centered near the Honduras/Nicaragua border and is forecast to slowly move north over the next few days. By Wednesday, what would likely be Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Since last week, the forecast models have consolidated with a track through the eastern Gulf, generally away from energy production regions. Landfall is forecast to be late Thursday/early Friday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for continuing organization and intensification, potentially reaching hurricane strength by midweek.

Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. reports that Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center(NHC) increased the chance for tropical development over the western Caribbean Sea to 50% over the next seven days. The likelihood is expected to increase through the week as the development window approaches. A tropical low is forecast to develop early next week, then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. My forecast confidence that there will be a tropical cyclone next week is HIGH; however, there remains little confidence in the track and intensification forecasts. As mentioned in the previous commentary, the location of landfall may range from Tampico to the Florida Panhandle. At this time, the probability of a Texas landfall is less than 10%.