The Heavy Tail Safety Ceiling
Watch out for that tail -- it's a killer.

The Heavy Tail Safety Ceiling

Creating safe autonomous vehicles will require not only extensive training and testing against realistic operational scenarios, but also dealing with uncertainty. The real world can present many rare but dangerous events, suggesting that these systems will need to be robust when encountering novel, unforeseen situations. Generalizing from observed road data to hypothesize various classes of unusual situations will help. However, a heavy tail distribution of surprises from the real world could make it impossible to use a simplistic drive/fail/fix development process to achieve acceptable safety. Autonomous vehicles will need to be robust in handling novelty, and will additionally need a way to detect that they are encountering a surprise so that they can remain safe in the face of uncertainty. 

Read the full two-page position paper here:

https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/pubs/koopman18_heavy_tail_ceiling.pdf

Philip Koopman

Embedded System Software & Safety, Self-Driving Vehicles, Consulting.

6 年

Fixed the link and tested with IOS; should work now.? Thanks for letting me know Geoff.

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Phil the link isn’t clickable (LinkedIn app on iOS) ...is there a way to embed it as a clickable link?

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Jacques Gatard

Co-founder and CEO at EMBRYA SAS

6 年

In other words, more black swan exist than people believe...

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