The Heavy Tail Safety Ceiling
Philip Koopman
Embedded System Software & Safety, Self-Driving Vehicles, Consulting.
Creating safe autonomous vehicles will require not only extensive training and testing against realistic operational scenarios, but also dealing with uncertainty. The real world can present many rare but dangerous events, suggesting that these systems will need to be robust when encountering novel, unforeseen situations. Generalizing from observed road data to hypothesize various classes of unusual situations will help. However, a heavy tail distribution of surprises from the real world could make it impossible to use a simplistic drive/fail/fix development process to achieve acceptable safety. Autonomous vehicles will need to be robust in handling novelty, and will additionally need a way to detect that they are encountering a surprise so that they can remain safe in the face of uncertainty.
Read the full two-page position paper here:
https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/pubs/koopman18_heavy_tail_ceiling.pdf
Embedded System Software & Safety, Self-Driving Vehicles, Consulting.
6 年Fixed the link and tested with IOS; should work now.? Thanks for letting me know Geoff.
Phil the link isn’t clickable (LinkedIn app on iOS) ...is there a way to embed it as a clickable link?
Co-founder and CEO at EMBRYA SAS
6 年In other words, more black swan exist than people believe...