Heating Oil

Directional Opinion: We settled in a bull leg.  Settlement below 13287 will start this in a bear leg.  On a macro basis:  The solid penetration above 12933 put us above a moderate base pattern, and suggests the start to a moderate new bull trend. However, I have two reservations: 1) I do not love these types of bases, and 2) it has not formed over a very significant period of time (only over 5 months)—so the ensuing trend out of it may not be all that macro. Still, it suggests gains to the upside of 2080 tics minimum, 3740 tics (+) maximum.   We have seen 1232 tics of this so far.  The break point on these formations are often tested and chopped through a bit as well. Solid trade back below 12933 warns of solid profit taking and a negation of the start to the bull trend.   On a short term basis:  The decent trade back above 13066 has brought in 974 tics of the decent short covering we are looking for on the break above.   The decent trade above 13393 (-4 tics per/hour) projects this upward 670 tics (+). We have seen  647 tics of this so far.  This line will come in at 13294 (-4 tics per/hour starting at 9:00am).  If we break back below decently, look for decent profit taking to come in.