The Healthcare Dilemma: Navigating a Perfect Storm

It's 2024, and the U.S. healthcare industry is on the precipice of a crisis. Not one driven by a lack of technological innovation or medical breakthroughs, but by a factor so basic, so essential, that it threatens to bring the entire system to its knees: people.

By 2028, the healthcare industry will be short 100,000 workers. While states like California and Texas might seem poised to weather the storm with surpluses, New York and New Jersey are heading straight into the eye of the hurricane. What’s even more shocking? It's not the doctors we’re losing. It’s the nurses, the nursing assistants, the home health aides—the essential workers who form the backbone of our healthcare system.

This is where the healthcare industry has it all wrong. They've spent years focusing on the most visible talent—doctors—while leaving the engine of the machine underfunded, undervalued, and burned out. Now, that engine is stalling.

The Demand Paradox

The U.S. is aging. By 2028, 1 in 6 Americans will be over the age of 65. It doesn’t take an economist to know what happens when demand outstrips supply in any system: chaos.

But in healthcare, it’s not just chaos. It’s a matter of life and death. As more people need care, fewer are available to provide it. Nursing assistants, who make up 8% of the healthcare workforce, are projected to fall short of demand by over 73,000. Meanwhile, registered nurses—expected to be in surplus nationwide—are facing state-specific crises, with New York bracing for a shortage of 16,000 by 2028.

What’s the answer? More money? Better working conditions? It’s not just about fixing paychecks, though that’s a start. The problem is systemic.

Fixing the System, Not the Symptoms

What’s fascinating about this crisis is how predictable it is. Healthcare turnover skyrocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with burnout driving 100,000 registered nurses to leave the workforce. Burnout isn’t new, but the industry’s ability to address it in a meaningful way has been less than optimal. Healthcare workers are humans, not robots. And while the healthcare system might wish it could replace burnout with automation, the reality is stark: nurses, aides, and practitioners don’t just provide care—they are the care!!

Which brings us to an important question: why aren’t we doing more to redesign the jobs that these essential workers are doing?

Healthcare systems need to start thinking like startups. Job redesign, automation where possible, and a relentless focus on employee satisfaction are no longer optional. They are the only way forward. Instead of continuing to throw money at the problem in the form of temporary fixes, we need to rethink the roles themselves. Why is it that nurses are burning out faster than ever? Why aren’t we addressing the systemic inefficiencies that lead to burnout?

Pay Attention to Geography

Here’s a twist: while the nation faces a shortage, some states are poised for a surplus. California and Texas are projected to have thousands more healthcare workers than they need. But New York? It’s the opposite. And this is where geography becomes both a problem and a solution.

Healthcare systems have to start thinking regionally. If nursing assistants can earn more just by crossing state lines, guess what? They will. So, it’s not just about competing with other healthcare providers; healthcare systems are now competing with geography itself. The future of healthcare isn’t just about hiring—it’s about recruiting talent from across borders, creating incentives that work across state lines, and building national partnerships to ensure the right people are in the right places.

A Vision for the Future

The healthcare labor shortage is not an insurmountable problem. It’s a wake-up call. A chance to rethink how we treat healthcare workers—not just in terms of pay, but in terms of respect, job design, and long-term retention strategies. It’s about building pipelines of talent, investing in educational institutions, and yes, paying people what they’re worth.

Because if we continue down the path we’re on, we’re not just shortchanging healthcare workers. We’re shortchanging every single one of us who will need care in the years to come.

The future of healthcare isn’t about surviving—it’s about thriving. But to get there, we need to stop focusing on short-term fixes and start embracing long-term vision. The crisis is here. The solutions? They’re waiting for us to act.