The Health and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Interventions
Facing the rapid spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, state and local leaders have taken unprecedented measures to protect their communities, such as closing schools and businesses, banning large gatherings, and placing residents under shelter-at-home orders.
These interventions are having wide-ranging effects on the health, economy, and social well-being of populations. As communities move toward recovery, policymakers face difficult questions about how and when to relax interventions and how to weigh the economic cost of prolonged mitigation measures against the risk of a second wave of the virus.
This tool supports decisionmakers in planning a recovery roadmap by estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on health and economic outcomes. The tool also provides qualitative guidance on the efficacy, costs, and potential unintended consequences of a range of interventions.
The tool draws on an epidemiological model and an economic model to estimate effects, based on evidence from past epidemics, peer-reviewed literature, and data from the current pandemic. Data on current impacts are updated daily where available.
Key Findings
States that relax intervention measures in early May can expect to see
→ higher projected cases and deaths by September 1
→ rebounds in patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units
→ rebounds that come sooner and can be more severe the further restrictions are relaxed
→ greater improvements in the economy the more restrictions are relaxed.
States that relax restrictions from June 1 can expect to see
→ smaller increases in cases and deaths by September 1, compared with opening sooner
→ patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units rebound later and at lower numbers
→ smaller improvements in economic indicators.
Some states, such as New York, may have passed their highest peaks in active cases and hospitalizations, but for most, the worst is yet to come. Strict social distancing measures can delay this peak but cannot eliminate it without better treatments or a vaccine.
In states with high case numbers, drastically reducing social distancing can increase cases to unmanageable levels. The lag between reopening and the hospitalization spike can make this difficult to observe until it is too late.
How Interventions Could Affect the Impact of COVID-19
The following projections aim to provide guidance on balancing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies with negative effects on the economy.
To estimate the projected effects of interventions, researchers developed an escalating scale of intervention levels, starting from a baseline of no restrictions and adding more-widespread restrictions at each level.
After an intervention ends, activity is assumed to return to an estimated “new normal” scenario. The new normal is relative to the strength of the intervention that has been in place, so populations that have been under a stricter lockdown are assumed to have less social interaction when restrictions are lifted.
→ No interventions: No intervention and no reduction in activity.
→ Level 1: Close schools.
→ Level 2: Close schools, bars, and restaurants; and ban large events.
→ Level 3: Close schools, bars, and restaurants; ban large events; and close nonessential businesses.
→ Level 4: Close schools, bars, and restaurants; ban large events; close nonessential businesses; and issue a shelter-in-place order for the most vulnerable.
→ Level 5: Close schools, bars, and restaurants; ban large events; close nonessential businesses; and issue a shelter-in-place order for everyone but essential workers.
→ New normal: No intervention. Adjusted activity levels relative to the previous level of intervention.
Original source: https://www.rand.org/