Headline Hysteria over Automation? Take a Closer Look.
By Gary Shapiro
Based on a recent McKinsey report on the future of work, several articles across a range of outlets focused on how automated technology such as self-driving cars, robots and artificial intelligence (AI) will disrupt the workforce. And while they’re right to explore this pressing issue, they’re wrong to frame it in such hyperbolic, even hysterical terms.
In fact, the McKinsey report is a source of encouragement. Last January, the company released another report on the same topic. The earlier research found that half of all jobs were likely to be partially automated by 2030. But the most recent study offers a more optimistic assessment of the situation: Over time, technology creates more jobs than it destroys.
For example, between 1970 and 2015, personal computers displaced about 3.5 million jobs – but they created more than 19 million jobs.
The report also says:
New technologies have spurred the creation of many more jobs than they destroyed, and some of the new jobs are in occupations that cannot be envisioned at the outset; one study found that 0.56 percent of new jobs in the United States each year are in new occupations.
There’s no denying we’re beginning a major technological shift – but perhaps it’s not as challenging as we once thought. And if we do it right, we can make this shift work to benefit the economy. The report found that by retraining workers and putting them in new jobs before a year passes, we can accelerate economic growth and increase wages.
Time and time again, society has fretted about automation. And time and time again, we’ve managed not only to survive, but to thrive, using technology to expand our economy, extend our country’s global leadership and improve our lives.
That said, we face a challenging task. Preparing our labor force for this abrupt transition will take the combined efforts of policymakers, educators, workers, business leaders and tech experts. More, we have the advantage of knowing that disruption is coming our way.
The good news is that January 9-12, leaders from the tech sector, policy sector and virtually every industry around the world will converge on Las Vegas for CES. During the show, they’ll be able to discuss the issues, consider the possibilities and strategize about solutions.
I’m excited to hear their thoughts – and I’m even more excited to see where the next few decades will take us. If my experience at the Consumer Technology Association has taught me anything, it’s that for all the problems technological advancement brings, those issues, if boldly and creatively addressed, are far outstripped by the possibilities.
How do you recommend we move forward and work in synergy with AI? Leave me your thoughts below.
Gary Shapiro is president and CEO of the Consumer Technology Association (CTA)?, the U.S. trade association representing more than 2,200 consumer technology companies, and author of The New York Times best-selling books, Ninja Innovation: The Ten Killer Strategies of the World's Most Successful Businesses and The Comeback: How Innovation Will Restore the American Dream. His views are his own. Connect with him on Twitter: @GaryShapiro
Old enough to be experienced, but young enough to still be flexible.
6 年Nowadays, technical evolution is much more faster than our mind evolution. Fear is only the response. It is the responsibilty of all the well educated technical engineers to deal with new industrial revolution in a human and sustainable way.
Digital Twin Risk Management | Safety & Cybersecurity Integration | Automated Hazard Handling
6 年I think there is not a small number of people out there fearing changes or new developments. Especially to understand complex, new developments, if you are not familiar with them, is very very hard. Those people are open minded and more willing to pay for articles showing them the bad side of something.
Utvecklingsdriven projektledare och ingenj?r (M.Sc.Eng.).
6 年I think Kurzgesagt did a really good summary of automation. https://youtu.be/WSKi8HfcxEk The thing is, this is not industrialization. This is full automation of entire workflows. Lights out manufacturing. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lights_out_(manufacturing) Industrialization created more jobs than it displaced. That isn't really happening now, from what I can see. What we are facing isn't human work becoming more effective. It is human work becoming antiquated, imprecise, unreliable etc. compared to the options. This isn't good or bad, but how we prepare for and meet these issues will define a lot of humanitys road ahead. Right now, the wealth created from this is going mostly to the wealthy and big corporation's. Systems that grow top heavy tend to collapse.
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6 年It’s obvious that you’ve done a lot of research on this topic Gary, I enjoyed reading your perspective.?