He Said, He Said: Week Ten of the House of Commons

In this week’s edition of He Said, She Said, it’s “He Said, He Said” with Olivier Cullen , Blackbird’s Director of Strategy, joining the blog as guest author. Here, Olivier and Chief Strategy Officer Daniel Pujdak debate immigration policies, parliamentary mishaps, and labour strikes.

Immigration: The Right Approach?

Dan: Marc Miller might be the adult at the cabinet table but the immigration file he manages is in crisis mode. A few weeks ago, we learned that Canada admitted an ISIS terrorist as a citizen, and this week, we learned that a terrorist convicted of bombing a synagogue in France has been teaching social justice at Carleton University as he awaits his extradition. We also learned that Canada has received a record number of refugee applications from students, which Minister Miller effectively cast off as bad-faith applications. Senator Marco Rubio, the United States’ presumptive next Secretary of State, has decried Canada’s immigration system as a threat to American security and several other Trump nominees have expressed their none-too-exuberant view about the soundness of Canada’s immigration policies.

Two of the previous immigration ministers are still in cabinet. One, Ahmed Hussen, restored funding to an organization credibly accused of supporting terrorism, and the other, Sean Fraser, is considered a rising star in the party and bizarrely threw his own record as immigration minister under the bus when he publicly blamed the high rate of newcomers under his watch as the reason why Canada’s housing markets - which he’s now responsible for - are failing. It makes you wonder how seriously anyone has taken the file until now.

Olivier, welcome to the blog. I’ve never seen a government mishap its way into a national identity crisis like this. And if we believe Fraser, Rubio, and the growing evidence that we’ve let violent extremists settle here, and that opposition to the traditional Canadian pro-immigration consensus is rising, the consequences could be dire. I’m a big fan of Miller, as I’ve talked about in this blog series before. How can Miller steer the Titanic after it hit the iceberg? Or is the foregone conclusion that it no longer matters, and this is the next government’s train wreck?

Olivier: Thanks, Dan—you’ve left quite a sour impression of immigration there. While I’m pinch-hitting for Lisa on the blog this week (as if I could hope to outwit either of you), I must ask—are you pushing the anti-immigrant sentiment that you agree could have dire consequences? This is Canada. It was built on and continues to grow through immigration.?

Yes, I agree—Miller is one of the greatest communicators in Cabinet (it’s a short list), but I respectfully disagree that his department has been handing out citizenships to terrorists willy-nilly. You liken it to the Titanic, but the Minister doesn’t have any life rafts; he’s just patching things up with duct tape and hope. I’ll take a 'Marc Miller in crisis mode' over most politicians on their best day, but let’s not pretend a few good speeches will fix systemic issues that have been simmering for years.

Oh, and thanks, but I won’t take lessons on one of the world’s greatest immigration systems from a Trumpite Florida Senator who claims, “immigration is poisoning the blood of Americans.”

I’ll forgive your little potshots at Fraser and Hussen—mishaps happen—but let’s not make more of it than we should. I doubt Hussen, or anyone in his office had a hand in these “credible accusations” you’re spinning. Immigration isn’t a problem that needs solving; it’s a fundamental part of Canada’s history and future. Yes, it will forever be complex, but it remains critical to the health of our nation.

?

NDP: Jagmeet’s Zig-Zagging Strategy

Dan: Jagmeet Singh is starting to release his economic platform which, strangely for the NDP, is tax cuts, but perhaps less strangely, would be paid for through bigger corporate taxes which?I’m absolutely certain can’t ever be passed on to consumers. We’ve entered into a bizarro world where the NDP is somehow both out-lefting and out-righting the Liberal Party, and honestly, I don’t know what to make of it other than stating I’m genuinely confused about their strategy. I assume that they’re courting the same working class and private sector union votes that have moved to the Conservatives and perhaps trying to capture some of that je ne sais quoi that made a segment of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump voters overlap in 2016. What do you think is Mr. Singh’s play?

Olivier: A big L.O.L. at the NDP’s “economic platform.” It’s simultaneously simple and impossible to write proper, realistic fiscal policy without ever having been in government. Since his Tarantino-inspired “I just ripped up the agreement” video, Singh seems to think he’s the one and only answer to the Poilievre problem (spoiler: he’s not). As if he wakes up one day and thinks,?“The NDP should do tax cuts—that’ll solve it.”?Here’s what we agree on, Dan: I’m genuinely confused by their strategy. Pulling from everyone else by changing your fundamental values? Not going to fly.

Labour Strikes: Unraveling Unrest

Dan: The government tried - and failed - to wait out striking public service employees and has referred airlines, port workers, and railways to binding arbitration and Canada Post might be next. It’s an abysmal record of failed negotiations in an era of inflation and labour unrest, which isn’t the government’s fault, but their response to striking workers may cause some hardships down the road.

According to polling sponsored by unions, Canadians have a positive perception of the labour movement. An Abacus poll in 2023 showed Canadians are generally sympathetic to strikers and an Ipsos one showed that to be less true when it came to striking federal public sector workers. One can reasonably assume support for a strike dwindles when it impacts people personally - for instance, not receiving mail - or if the demands seem outrageous, as in the case of federal workers demanding a 4.5% increase.?

There’s more labour unrest likely on the horizon. Canada is signalling cuts to its ballooning public service. And there are a shrinking number of tools available to quell unrest since back-to-work legislation will almost certainly trigger a non-confidence motion that the Liberals likely wouldn’t win.

When the parliamentary session started, we flagged labour unrest as an area to watch since it could trigger an election. Let’s see how rocky things get after the fall economic statement, which will be our first glimpse into public sector layoffs.

Olivier: This government has had a rough go with strikes in major sectors, but this Canada Post one cuts deep. It hurts everyone, especially those who need it the most—people relying on the mail for essential cheques or living in rural and remote areas where Canada Post isn’t just a flyer-dropper, but a literal lifeline. Canada Post has been a ship waiting to be righted for a long time, but—as you say—I don’t know if those general polling numbers translate into people’s collective thoughts about Canada Post. A 20% wage increase is a shock to anyone’s system—not something most people would dream of asking for, let alone receiving.

The governing Liberals will limp to the end of this session, but they must be thinking:?Another problem? Let the next government deal with it.

Our team can give you the insights you need to help navigate a changing political landscape: [email protected]

Daniel Pujdak is Blackbird's Chief Strategy Officer. Olivier Cullen is Blackbird's Director of Strategy.

?

?