He Said, She Said: Week Four of the House of Commons

In this week's edition of He Said, She Said, Blackbird's C-suite discusses politics here in Canada and takes a trip across the border.

Dan: Melanie?Joly, Canada’s top diplomat, made what was likely her final appearance at the United Nations last week. It was a tour de force performance but not in the way she hoped.

Minister?Joly’s statements seemingly attacked CPC leader Pierre Poilievre as a threat to freedom and Donald Trump, an unbecoming look for a minister whose role should be championing a Team Canada approach that bolsters relationships with our southern neighbour regardless of who wins their election. She assailed politicians for being too loose with the truth, a rich comment from a minister who has not let truth get in the way of political expedience regarding the recent Israel-Gaza war.

At best,?Joly’s performance was a masterclass in meaningless virtue signalling, at worst it was a painful lack of awareness that Canada’s standing in the world isn’t quite what?Joly?thinks it is. Either way, she achieved nothing for Canada.

What sticks out most to me is how much Team Trudeau seems interested in posturing for the next election beyond our borders. Last week I wrote about Prime Minister Trudeau’s difficult-to-watch appearance on the Colbert show. Will they continue, abandoning the principle of leaving domestic politics at our border? Are they hoping to reclaim some of the international glitz that followed Trudeau in 2015?

My other big thought: will there be one last cabinet shake-up before the next election? There have been rumours although the government passed up prime opportunities when Ministers O’Regan and Rodriguez departed. Is there one last opportunity for the Trudeau government to show it has more talent outside its current front bench?

Lisa: On Minister Joly, I’m obviously not as fussed as Dan is, but part of that is I think I’m in a place where many Canadians find themselves: both the minister and the U.N. are increasingly irrelevant on the geopolitical stage. What stood out most to me was the minister asking the U.N. members to counter political polarization and, in the next breath, taking shots at the Conservative opposition in Canada’s Parliament. It was an odd choice to use what’s likely her last speech to this international audience to attack your opposition at home.

But there was also a?focus on women’s rights as we’re watching around the world – including your home country, Dan – women having fewer rights today than their mothers and grandmothers did in the 1960s. Canada’s a progressive nation for the most part and as borders around the world become increasingly fuzzy, we need to ensure we hold fast to one thing that makes us Canadian: supporting women’s, minorities’, and the LGBTQ community’s human rights. There’s a lot of work to still be done, and we can’t risk going backwards.

You snuck that cabinet shuffle rumour in there – I, for sure, think this must happen and not just to relieve Minister Anand of two very technically heavy files. Unless the government is considering proroguing (which is increasingly a possibility), there has to be a channel change. PM Trudeau has been unsuccessful at changing the narrative over the course of this year and last summer’s cabinet shuffle was a dud…the front benches need a refresh. But who? After nine years, there aren’t any new faces (unless he makes Carney a minister) so I’m not sure who goes where. I mean, I do have a wish list if anyone asks.

Dan: Lisa, you’re definitely not getting what you want with a shuffle, but I appreciate your stubborn enthusiasm. So, we’re headed into the last sitting week before MPs go back to their constituencies and it’s gearing up to be an exciting one.?

The Liberal Party is currently being propped up by the Bloc Québécois and New Democrats, but the Bloc has been clear their support is time-limited and dependent on the Liberals supporting new pension investments. The Liberals voted against a non-binding Bloc motion for those pension investments, saying the investments are not financially prudent and besides, they ought not come from a motion. The motion passed with all opposition parties voting in favour (as well as some Liberal MPs, too.) The Bloc, in turn, has said it will keep the end of October deadline for the LPC to change their mind.

The end is nigh?

The Bloc is poised to pick up seats in Quebec and the NDP and Liberals are still none too keen to go to the polls. But the NDP wants to pick up seats in Quebec. It will be interesting to see how the Liberals try to spin pension reform this week — and whether what they hear from their constituents next week will result in a change of heart.?

My gut says time is ticking and if pension reform is as popular as it seems in Quebec, this investment either happens or the NDP joins the Bloc to take down Trudeau on this one. We’ll get a sense of where this may land in the coming days.

Lisa: We may just have a perfect storm brewing: Pharmacare is about to become law, meaning the NDP has no reason to not bring down the government. Oh, except for the fact that they have little cash and less support. I just can’t figure out what the narrative is if they keep supporting a government NDP leader Jagmeet Singh calls “corrupt.” Singh and his party are damned if they do and damned if they don’t at this point.

The Conservatives have shown us all their cards, so eyes are on the Bloc Quebecois – if they’re playing chicken, it’s going to be interesting to see who blinks first, them or the Liberals. For the Bloc, they need the Liberals to pass their OAS private member’s bill; it’s a money bill and requires a royal recommendation from the government but if the coffers are indeed empty, where’s that $16 billion coming from? And what about the rest of Canada? Honestly, I don’t see this collapsing the House, but I don’t know how it resolves either. Maybe the Liberals suggest alternatives that both they and the Bloc can agree on? Or maybe they prorogue.

Dan: Don’t forget the USA…we’re less than a month from the American election. Typically, we’ve only been writing about federal Canadian politics but let’s look south of the border for just a moment since whatever happens down there influences our politics up here.

Vice President Harris’ campaign has found its groove using millennial and Gen Z social media tactics and lingo while sending out the VP and her running mate to connect with voters on policy. She’s also abandoned the “when they go low, we go high” style of Clinton and has been fairly successful in branding her opponent as “weird.” Even though the race is still neck to neck, it seems to be working.

Part of the secret of the Harris campaign’s success is they’ve abandoned overthinking on social media and have instead made mini, mostly independent social media teams who rapidly post based on gut instinct.

President Trump on the other hand has continued his 2015-style rallies which seem to be capturing less attention. Meanwhile, his running mate JD Vance seems to be running a completely separate policy campaign that Trump may not have bought into. But let’s not kid ourselves. He has immense popularity - if you don’t believe me, take a quick trip over the border from Ottawa to Ogdensburg - and he is still very much in the race. How do you think this is going down?

Lisa: I love American politics; like, in an unhealthy way. I blame a former university professor of mine when we studied the 2000 US election in real-time, over two semesters. That was the hanging chad election…anyway, yes, you’re right, Trump’s still in this and it blows my mind it’s even a contest. Honestly, Trump doesn’t scare me as much as his running mate. Trump, um, isn’t terribly bright and he’s motivated by money, power, and grievance, not service. But Vance, Vance has an agenda – Project 2025 and he is motivated to implement it. Eliminating the Department of Education, a national abortion ban, consolidating executive power, and infusing the federal government with conservative Christian values. Goodbye, civil rights if Trump wins. And given his age – I can’t believe I’m going to write this – there’s a possibility that Vance is not just thisclose to the presidency, he could be president without even being elected to the position.

But onto the lighter side: Kamala Harris and Coach Walz aren’t pulling any punches. I would kill to be working on their rapid response team – it’s brilliant how they’re doing this. Within seconds the team is releasing clips on social media comparing and contrasting the two presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Harris and Walz haven’t made many missteps. Their visuals are fantastic. Their policies are well thought out for the most part (not that policy is really what this election is about.)

November 5th is going to be all about GOTV – which team is going to be able to move support into votes? Like I said, I can’t believe it’s as close as it is, but goddamn, if Trump gets in...

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Lisa Kirbie is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Blackbird.

Daniel Pujdak is Blackbird's Chief Strategy Officer.