He Said, She Said: Week 7 of the House of Commons

In this week's edition of "He Said, She Said" Lisa Kirbie and Daniel Pujdak tackle the ever-growing issue of Liberal party dissension. They also weigh in on Arctic policy and the need for a warmer approach to political leadership.

Dan: Lisa, today is the day that Mr. Trudeau must provide a final answer to the 24 Liberal MPs calling for his resignation as party leader. In fact, the Prime Minister offered an answer almost immediately after an acrimonious caucus meeting last week - he isn’t going anywhere. Buoyed by polling that the party might lose less badly to the Conservatives in the next election, the PM appears unshaken.?

The PM says the party is now strong and united, so he seems to think the crisis is over - but maybe it’s the start of one. LPC MP Wayne Long expressed his disappointment that Trudeau didn’t appear to take the resignation ultimatum seriously. By my count, there are at least eight current or former cabinet ministers not seeking re-election. To me, this doesn’t feel like the end of an insurrection - it feels like the beginning.

As leading indicators for where the caucus insurrection could head, I’ll?be watching to see who ends up in the impending cabinet shuffle. Perhaps lots of Atlantic Canadians, where the revolt first started? Will a discontented member or two get a promotion? I’ll also be watching for reactions in other areas of potential regional discontent—namely, Quebec and the Toronto suburbs.?

Lisa, do you think there’s a bigger revolution waiting in the wings?

Lisa: In a word, no. I’ve always believed that PM Trudeau is staying on for a variety of reasons: he believes in what he’s doing regardless of what polls show with a very real post-pandemic affordability crisis (which many countries are struggling with) and also because I don’t know who could actually step in at this point and willingly be 2024’s Ignatieff and wear, potentially, a catastrophic loss – we don’t even have time for a proper leadership contest. While Trudeau may be unpopular, he’s more popular than any leading suspects if one of them were to take the reins.

Like it or not, he’s either going to go down with his caucus or he’s going to perform beyond expectation in the next election (which best case, I think, is holding the CPC to a minority.) That said, I’m not sure what the plan is to give the Tories a run for their money. When is my party going to start advertising? Pushing back? Presenting new ideas? What’s the path? Ultimately, for caucus to settle, there needs to be a plan to get behind. And for Canadians to get behind.

Last week was incredibly busy but didn’t you go to the Public Policy Forum’s event? I read comments from the former Trump-appointed ambassador telling folks to “buckle up” if Trump is re-elected. Was there anything else discussed aside from Craft’s warnings?

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Dan: You’re trying to change the subject but yes, I attended the fall lecture on the Canada-US relationship. Ambassador Craft is a seasoned diplomat – she began her service under the President W. Bush administration and then-Senator Joe Biden supported her nomination. I take her insights seriously and she was a fantastic appointment by President Trump.

A recent paper by PPF suggested Canada must show up and “matter more” to the United States. Arctic investments are low-hanging fruit to address long-standing issues around defense spending and critical minerals opportunities. Both former American ambassadors agreed Ottawa should look north.

I have been ranting about Arctic under-investment for years, but it doesn’t seem like something Canada will move on. It’s complicated, it requires urgency and innovation – it’s the type of problem that can’t be solved by Canadian complacency.?

Lisa, investing in Canada’s Arctic is obviously the right thing to do. Our American partners want us to do it. They’re doing it. Do you think an administration change in the US might force the next Canadian government to take this more seriously?

Lisa: I would hope Canada takes it more seriously regardless of who wins next Tuesday (please don’t let it be Trump; please don’t let it be Trump.) We represent many clients in the north who’ve been sounding this alarm for years and it’s time to focus on what’s needed in the Arctic from climate change to national security; this is a very real problem, but Canada’s population largely resides in the south with very little thought given to these matters.

A few years ago, I went to a meeting with Canada’s then-parliamentary secretary of defence and many chiefs from various northern First Nations to talk about Arctic security. That was eye-opening. As one of those people in the south who never really thought much about this, I got quite the education that day. Many, many people are lobbying on the need for Arctic investment, to mitigate climate change, and to ensure Canada’s Arctic remains secure.?

There are so many competing issues right now – affordability, housing, addiction, immigration – I’m not sure what needs to happen to move the needle on this beyond the work a lot of us are already doing.

Speaking of immigration… [awkward segue.]

Dan: Last week Ottawa drastically cut Canada’s immigration numbers which, in my mind, signalled once again that Marc Miller is the adult at the cabinet table. Minister Miller continually proves he has no problem admitting when the government gets things wrong and pivoting policy toward better outcomes. His colleagues could look to him as an example.

Mr. Miller is, of course, still incredibly partisan. He has been first out the gate to defend the Prime Minister and seems to have a new affinity for using the word “hell” in almost every press interview. I could do without this part of Mr. Miller, but I get it comes with the territory.

I don’t always, or often, have much nice to say about the Liberal government these days but I want to give credit where credit is due - Miller acknowledges mistakes, apologizes, and fixes them. But Lisa, I also want your insights - why are the qualities that Mr. Miller shows so rare in politics and what would need to change for more leaders to be a little bit more like him??

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Lisa: Miller is my absolute favourite minister in this government for many reasons – although I’m still chuffed that he was moved from CIRNAC – including those you mention: he admits mistakes and changes course. A partisan once said to me that Miller isn’t “political” enough, but I pushed back and said that’s exactly why he’s so good at his job (he was at CIRNAC at the time.) He has good instincts that may or may not necessarily be beneficial to the LPC politically, but they are one hundred percent beneficial in his role as a minister.

Minister Miller was one of those guys in Trudeau’s wedding party but he’s not afraid to say what he thinks – remember the “blackface” scandal? If I recall correctly, Miller didn’t deflect or move to something else, he directly answered the questions, at one point stating it was wrong and that he wished he had said something back in their high school days. He’s a no-bullshit kind of guy. During covid when there were railway blockades, it was Miller who the government dispatched, and he took the concerns being raised by First Nations representatives seriously and respectfully.

Often, authenticity is missing from politics. It’s all talking points, slogans, and gotchas (and delusion south of the border) these days. Seeing someone say what he or she thinks is refreshing and novel. We need more of that.

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Lisa Kirbie is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Blackbird.

Daniel Pujdak is Blackbird's Chief Strategy Officer.