He Said, She Said: Week 5 of the House of Commons

In this week's edition of He Said, She Said, Parliament has a break week and it's business as usual...so far.

Dan: We finally made it, Lisa!

It’s a break week, meaning MPs are back in their constituencies where no doubt some will be getting a very rough ride at the doors.

I suspect MPs will be hearing a lot about three topics:

• Drug and addictions policy, which has played out poorly in Canada’s urban downtowns which also happen to elect predominately progressive MPs who have supported these policies;
• Carbon tax, which is still unpopular but I’m sure Liberal MPs won’t be able to resist celebrating the quarterly rebate scheduled for next week; and
• Getting rid of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party.

I want to focus on the LPC for a minute here. When MPs hear from their constituents that their party leader is pulling them down, it triggers caucus discontent. Like, the kind of discontent where MPs start demanding a resignation.

Do you think Liberal MPs will be more wound up after their week at home? Do you foresee new caucus problems for the PM?

Lisa: I’m hearing that the Liberal Caucus is pretty discontent already, never mind after a break week.

The lay of the land is that we must have an election by fall 2025. We know the Tories badly want one now. We know the Bloc has thrown down a $16 billion ultimatum for continued support of this fragile minority and they’re kind of ambivalent about an election at this point. We know the NDP is trying to play the middle – not wanting to be seen as supporting a government they’ve repeatedly called corrupt but yet recognizing their own support is in the toilet and their fundraising isn’t exactly going gangbusters.

Also, in the mix is this current battle in the House of Commons that normal people likely don’t have any idea is occurring, but Parliamentary business is at a standstill with an impasse between the government and the official opposition. How long can this go on? I’ve no idea. I've heard a few different things: the government could prorogue and the Liberal Party calls a leadership race (but what Liberal is polling higher than Prime Minister Trudeau at this point?); the government could prorogue just to get the hell out of the House (but I’m not sure how you spin that); or it’s business as usual and this is how it’s going to be until the winter break unless the opposition parties get together and bring down the government, forcing us into a winter election.

It does feel like this can’t go on much longer. It also feels like logic and strategy are no longer in play so who really knows what comes next? We lobbyists and consultants have to keep our foot on the gas as if it’s business as usual – until it isn’t.

Dan: Speaking of constituency issues…

Last week I wrote about Melanie Joly’s odd appearance at the United Nations but this week, ex-NDP leader Tom Mulcair unleashed a bombshell:?Minister Joly’s response to her incomprehensible policy, apparently, is because of the “demographics” of her riding.

All ministers are MPs, meaning all feel the pressure of their constituencies, but the job of a minister when they make national policy?is to put the best interest of the country first. It’s hard sometimes - ask any east coast MP who served as fisheries minister - but almost every minister who has ever sat in cabinet has understood the assignment. Except, it seems, for Joly.

This might not seem like scandal-worthy material but to me, it feels like a major ethical lapse - especially since her positions seem to put us at odds with our primary allies. Does this mean the minister is only concerned about diaspora communities or good policy if it makes her popular in her riding? And now that she’s allegedly admitted dereliction in her duty as minister, what will the government do to restore faith in cabinet? Do you think this will put a damper on her rumoured ambitions to replace Trudeau as leader of the Liberals?

Lisa: I have nothing. It was an absolutely irresponsible thing to say. And to say it to a former NDP leader? It was a gross lapse in judgement on several fronts.

I’ve been hearing about Joly’s leadership ambitions for years so it’s unsurprising that she’s paying attention to polling and demographics right now, but until the boss decides he’s done (or enough MPs get together and decide he’s done), she best focus on doing well at the job she currently has or she absolutely won’t be getting the promotion she wants.

Let’s get back to the question of privilege currently paralyzing the House of Commons.

Dan: That “green slush fund” is a problem that is not going away for the Liberal government.

For people who haven't tuned into this, here’s the short version of the current controversy:?a green technology fund set up under the Liberal government was found to have given away public monies in a not totally above board, allegedly potentially criminal way. The House passed a motion demanding the Liberal government hand over documents that in turn would be passed to the RCMP. The government is refusing, saying criminal investigations should never be triggered through political interference and the RCMP seemingly agrees. Meanwhile, opposition parties are pushing further since the government is breaching the direction of the House.

Okay, so what does this all mean? Functionally, Parliament isn’t doing much of anything, including passing the bills the Bloc Québécois has demanded in turn for propping up the government. Their deadline for those bills to be passed is the end of the month, so it looks like the Bloc will be joining the CPC in non-confidence motions very soon.

Lisa, I can’t remember the last time the House was this dysfunctional. We all know an election is coming and the only thing seemingly stopping it is that the NDP isn’t financially ready to go to the polls and the LPC isn’t ready to give up the ghost.

Do you see the dynamics changing? Or do you think the election writ is fast approaching?

Lisa: I think any number of things could happen here. A procedural nerd friend told me earlier this week that prorogation doesn’t eliminate the privilege issue for the Liberals, only dissolution does that (any other nerd friends with different takes want to weigh in?). In that event, you have three options: go to an election, release the documents, or continue as is. I don’t think any of those choices benefit the government. And the longer this stalemate continues, the more likely this controversy will make its way into the public consciousness.

If that’s not correct, and prorogation does neatly take care of this problem, that increases the likelihood Parliament takes a hiatus. This would also make it impossible for the opposition parties to trigger an election and the Bloc threat wouldn’t have to be dealt with until the House returns. Given the tenor of the Tories and their desire for an election, I don’t see them backing down on this. And there’s no indication that the government is going to give up the documents.

Honestly, I can’t predict how this ends. It’s business as usual until it isn’t…

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Lisa Kirbie is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Blackbird.

Daniel Pujdak is Blackbird's Chief Strategy Officer.