Markets in the week gone by
Indian markets notched yet another record closing high, and chalked up its fifth straight week of gains, its longest such streak this year. The gains were driven by renewed buying interest by foreign investors; hopes of a rate cut in the US and upcoming Union Budget expectations. Sensex advanced 1.22% and Nifty added 1.3%. The markets edged higher in 3 out of 5 trading sessions during the week.
In the broader markets BSE Midcap index was up 2.77% and the BSE Smallcap index rose 3.85%. Market breadth was in favour of gainers with 7 shares advancing for every 5 losers.
Average cash turnover on NSE was 3% lower as compared to previous week. Most sectoral indices closed on a positive note led by IT up 4.1%, Capital Goods gained 3.9%, Healthcare up 3.1%, Oil & Gas up 2.3%, and Metal up 2.1%. On the downside Consumer Durables lost 0.2% and PSU Bank was down 0.1%.
Among Nifty 100 stocks, Bajaj Holding surged 13.3%, Zydus Life was up 8.2%; Motherson gained 7.7%; ICICI Pru Life added 6.2%; and Bharat Electronics increased 5.9%. On the downside, Titan fell 4.0%; HDFC Bank slipped 2.1%; Indusind Bank was down 2.1%; Adani Green fell 1.9% and Pidilite declined 1.9%.?
As per provisional figures, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 6875cr in the equity markets during the week and DIIs were net sellers of Rs 385 crore.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to a new high on Friday, posting a record close as the latest jobs report reignited hopes for rate cuts from the US Fed. Stocks were able to push higher, thanks in part to new comments from Fed Chair Powell citing progress in the fight against inflation. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell on data that indicates the labor market is cooling, and crypto continued its lackluster summer performance, with bitcoin falling nearly 10% on the week. Investors hiked their bets on a September interest rate cut, with odds of a quarter-point cut increasing to about 77%, up from 64% a week ago. For the week, the Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 2.0% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied 3.5%.
Crude oil prices fell on Friday, as the growing likelihood of a Gaza ceasefire overshadowed robust summer fuel demand and potential supply disruptions from hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain, driven by falling US crude inventories and strong seasonal demand. For the week, the US oil benchmark was up 2.3% at $83.4/barrel. Natural-gas futures?posted a nearly 11% weekly drop on Friday. Gold prices rose further closer to $2,400 per ounce mark on Friday, as data from the US jobs report bolstered expectations of incoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pressuring the dollar and triggering broad increases for precious metals. Gold prices were up 2.8% for the week at $2390.8/ounce.?
The Indian 10yr G-Sec yield fell 1 bps to 6.99%. The Indian rupee appreciated by 14 paise against the US dollar to Rs 83.50 per USD.
- The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.3 in June 2024, up from May's 57.5 but slightly below both preliminary estimates.
- The HSBC India Services PMI was revised higher to 60.5 in June 2024 from a flash reading of 60.4, and rising from May's five-month low of 60.2. A rise in both manufacturing and services pushed up the overall HSBC India Composite PMI to 60.9 last month, matching the flash estimate, from 60.5 in May.
- The gross GST collection for June 2024 stood at Rs 1.74 trillion, marking 7.7 per cent Y-o-Y growth and 0.7% month on month growth. This Y-o-Y growth is notably less than the 12.4 per cent and 10 per cent increases recorded in April and May, respectively.
- Retail sales of cars in India fell 6.8% in June, marking their worst decline in almost two and half years, a dealers' body said on Friday, as heatwaves across the country kept customers from visiting showrooms. Passenger vehicle sales in June dropped to 281,566 units, their lowest since September 2022.
- The number of demat accounts opened in June in India totalled over 42.4 lakh, marking the highest account opening rate since February 2024, compared to 36 lakh additions a month ago and 23.6 lakh a year ago.
- The Indian government has raised the windfall tax on petroleum crude to Rs.6,000 per metric ton from Rs.3,250, with effect from July 2.
- The US ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 48.5 in June 2024 from 48.7 in May. The reading pointed to a third straight month of falling manufacturing activity and the lowest since February.
- The US ISM Services PMI in the US tumbled to 48.8 in June 2024, the sharpest contraction since April 2020, after 53.8 in May.
- The trade deficit in the US widened to $75.1 billion in May 2024, the largest since October 2022 from a revised $74.5 billion in April. Exports fell 0.7% to $261.7 billion. Imports decreased at a slower 0.3% to $336.7 billion.
- U.S. vehicle sales fell 4.0% month-on-month (m/m) to 15.3 million (annualized) units in June. Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.32 million units or 3.4% below year-ago levels.?
- The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.1% in June 2024, the highest since November 2021, up from 4% in the previous month.?
- The US economy added 206K jobs in June 2024, slightly below a downwardly revised 218K in May.?
- US private companies added 150,000 jobs in June, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000.
- US Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. The FOMC “dot plot” showed one quarter percentage point cut by the end of 2024, down from the three indicated following the last update in March.
- The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.9 in June 2024 from a preliminary of 51.4 and compared to 51.2 in May.
- The S&P Global UK Services PMI fell to 52.1 in June of 2024 from 52.9 in May, revised sharply higher from the preliminary estimate of 51.2.?
- Headline inflation in the euro area dipped to 2.5% in June. Core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stayed at 2.9% from the prior month.
- Producer prices in the euro area dropped 4.2% year-on-year in May, marking the 13th consecutive month of decline. On a monthly basis, industrial producer prices in May fell 0.3%.
- Annual inflation rate in Germany fell to 2.2% in June 2024 from 2.4% in May.?
- German industrial production declined by 2.5% month-over-month in May 2024, shifting from an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in the prior month. Yearly, industrial output declined by 6.7% in May, much steeper than the prior 3.7% fall
- The au Jibun Bank reported that the Japan’s composite purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.7 in June, down sharply from 52.6 a month prior. This signals a decrease in Japanese private sector activity for the first time in seven months.
- The au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised downward to 49.4 in June 2024 from flash data of 49.8. It was a reversal from 53.8 in May, also marking the first drop in services activity since August 2022.
- Household spending in Japan declined in real terms by 1.8% yoy in May 2024, shifting from a 0.5% growth in the prior month.?
- The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 51.8 in June 2024 from 51.7 in May, marking the highest figure since May 2021.?
- The Caixin China General Services PMI declined to 51.2 in June 2024 from May’s 10-month high of 54.0.?
- 10-Jul – Tata Elxsi
- 11-Jul , TCS
- 12-Jul – HCL Tech
- 13-Jul – Avenue Supermarts
Events in the coming week
- 10-Jul –China – CPI, PPI; ?
- 11-Jul –US – CPI;
- 12-Jul – India – CPI, Industrial Production; China – Trade Balance; US – PPI, Consumer Sentiment
Nifty formed a bullish candle on July 05 forming a bullish counter attack type pattern. On weekly basis, Nifty rose 1.30%, rising for the fifth consecutive week. Nifty could now attempt to cross the previous resistance of 24401 to later gradually move towards the next target of 24960, while 24164 could be the near term support.
