The Hawthorn Headliner

Reform or die? Badenoch’s future unclear as Tories grapple with Farage threat

It was to nobody’s surprise that Kemi Badenoch kept rather quiet on her ‘First 100 Days’ anniversary this Monday.

The Tory Leader’s resounding win over Robert Jenrick last Autumn was greeted with cautious optimism by many in the Conservative Party. Badenoch was viewed as a breath of fresh air, promising a new direction and a return to ‘real Conservative values’. But on Monday, 100 days on from her leadership election victory, Hawthorn found almost no Tory sources willing to say she is taking the party in the right direction.

“Dressing antagonism up as principles only works if people know what you stand for,” remarked one former special adviser. A senior Tory source told us that Badenoch has “done little to stop the rot... with the polls moving in one direction, people are already wondering who’s next.” Morale in the party is at rock bottom – and donations have all but dried up.

Senior Conservative sources tell Hawthorn that even the most loyal donors – those who stuck by the party through the chaotic Brexit stalemate, even the partygate scandal – are keeping their cash on ice for now. “The only question left is whether she goes in 2025 or 2026”, explained a former cabinet minister.

What everyone we spoke to agreed on is that the threat from Reform now feels truly existential for the Conservatives. Emboldened by Trump’s victory and popular discontent with the Labour government, Farage is consistently outmanoeuvring Badenoch on her right flank. Established debates within right-wing politics – the size and role of the state, the rate of immigration, and ‘culture wars’ – are now dominated by the insurgent newcomers, with the Tories trailing in their wake.

The scale of Labour’s 2024 election victory meant that political commentators always expected something of a Tory retreat into the wilderness. Rebuilding takes time, and Badenoch’s senior team made it known early on that policy development would not be rushed. Hawthorn hears that following an exodus of policy specialists from CCHQ, loosely-structured ‘commissions’ have been set up. “The job of rebuilding the party will take much longer than 100 days,” a senior insider told us; “we must re-earn the right to be heard.”

But the commentariat – and the voting public – is rarely so patient. To the bemusement of many, a ‘crackdown’ on the rights of legal immigrants to the UK remains Badenoch’s only significant policy intervention to date. Meanwhile, opportunities to challenge the government on Chagos, illegal immigration and taxes have largely been left for Reform to capitalise on. Hawthorn also understands there is disquiet among the Tory faithful about their leader’s absence in the assisted dying debate.

So, what next for the Leader of His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition?

Badenoch has all the raw ingredients for true-blue pedigree. Even her detractors see her as a no-nonsense straight-talker who’s pulled herself up by her bootstraps. An experienced minister, on paper she was ‘the candidate Labour feared the most’, with concerns in Downing Street last autumn that her aggressive style could be very tricky indeed for the Prime Minister. In the event, her floundering media performances and occasionally bizarre comments to journalists have left Starmer’s team cock-a-hoop.

By any measure, Badenoch has fallen short of expectations in her first 100 days. While it’s difficult to say what ‘success’ could have looked like at this stage, one thing is certain: it has so far eluded her.

If you’d like to speak to Hawthorn about our Political Advisory offering, please email Mark Burr at [email protected].