The haves and have nots of the Jupiter real estate market

Here in the Northern Palm Beaches, the real estate market continues to get more and more interesting, day by day, minute by minute. Talk about interesting, but really no definitive way to tell where we are headed from here. For now, the tale of the haves and the have nots continues to define what we are seeing.

If you have been paying attention, you know the Jupiter real estate market has been defined, and controlled, by those paying over a million dollars for a home. It all started with new tax laws that were enacted back in 2017, then the Covid fuel thrown on the fire really got things sizzling.

Sales at the top end of the Jupiter real estate market have prospered. Up 16% in 2018 to a new all time record. Up 9.8% in 2019 to another new record. Up an unbelievable 51% in 2020 to another new record. Even though closings above that threshold during September were the lowest we have seen in 16 months, sales for the year are already 14% above last years all time record. The haves are buying real estate and their appetite has been insatiable. If their hunger continues is the question that will determine where we head from here.

Pending home sales above a million dollars have been terrible this summer. From the April highs to September 11th they dropped a dramatic 53%. Were the haves “pulling back” or just taking the summer off? I mean who really wants to be looking at South Florida real estate during the hurricane season.

Will the haves be back this season is the question that will tell us where Jupiter real estate prices head from here. A bright sign was that pending home sales at the top end of the market jumped 13% between September 11th through the 25th. Even though they have been flat since then, it seems the haves may be ready to jump right back in and re-heat the Jupiter real estate market.

Inventory, as you know, is a huge problem but at this moment almost 60% of all single family listings in the Northern Palm Beaches are priced above a million dollars. The haves enjoy a far better selection than do the have nots. Current inventory under $500,000 in the Jupiter area is just 11.6% of the entire market. Overall inventory levels in the Jupiter area just hit an all time record low and have basically not moved much for 6 months. Compared to one year ago, the number of homes on the market for buyers to consider are down 60%. Again, the haves have far better selection than the rest of the market.

Pending home sales have been down as of October 1st for the 6th straight month in the overall market. Down 8.5% in September, down 22% over the past year. They currently sit at the lowest levels we have seen in 16 months. With far more limited inventory and interest rates that jumped almost 5% this week, the have nots will feel the pinch far more than the haves. Remember, while the overall market saw another big drop in September, pending home sales for the haves jumped 13% during a 2 week period.

Will the haves jump back in this season with all we are seeing about government spending and debt? Is inflation a real problem and will it drive interest rates higher? What I do know is whatever happens at the top end of the market will dictate what happens with the entire market. If the haves jump back in, then limited inventory in all likelihood will drive prices higher. If prices continue to see upward pressure, those trying to find their first home are going to have a very tough time of it.?

Stay tuned, stay informed, as this real estate drama is just getting started. Traditional seasonal buying is just a little over 3 months away and already there are signs the haves are making deals. If they continue to do so, if interest rates move any higher, it’s going to get even tougher on the have nots.?

Paradise Sharks Real Estate has been doing nothing but real estate for decades. We study the numbers. We don’t have all the answers, but we sure would be honored to sit down with you and discuss your real estate goals and discuss what you should watch for, what you should be aware of, and how we might be able to help you. Consultations are free and easy to schedule at?[email protected]?or 561.308.0175. We like to save you money and make sure you make educated decisions and to us it does not matter if you are buying at the top end of the market, or the bottom end of the market, we want to make sure you are getting the customer service you deserve.

Fins up…..

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