Have we hit peak on the hype-cycle? Celtic Sea FLOW Update, Q4 2024

Many in the South West and Wales will be just catching the wave of FLOW excitement whilst wearier industry-watchers may feel slumped in the trough of disillusion... Others may feel overwhelmed by a plethora of high-level reports, conference chatter and earnest brochures - and sense that the Celtic Sea has now hit peak on the hype cycle. In truth, it was always going to be a long haul. The long-term potential is real but to realise it requires workaday slog to; make ready, attract investment and de-risk.

Working up plans with credible ambition for some of the UK's most impoverished regions is not effort wasted. Celtic Sea FLOW remains a speculative market but the world's energy production is moving offshore; building capabilities and raising aspirations should have no regrets. Capital is looking to move west but the region has much to do now to be ready to receive it. Investment will land where credible and logical opportunities offer returns. So aspiration must be well-articulated; with a partnership approach in which industry's needs can be matched to a region's wants.

Until then, mistaking progress for activity is understandable but to help cut through the noise.... Here's our quarterly overview of opportunities, upcoming events and the development pipeline. We've even thrown in a quick guide to CSAs - Celtic Sea Acronyms.

More pre-Christmas insights are on the way too in the form of; A regional response to the Industrial Growth Plan led by Marine Energy Wales (MEW), Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult (OREC) and Celtic Sea Power (CSP) and; CSP's series of guest blogs.

With thanks to Magnus Christian Ebbesen....

Development Pipeline

Flotation Energy’s 400MW Green Volt project may be in Scotland but is still significant of course for all UK companies with ambitions in FLOW. There is also work to be won in fixed wind and a world of export potential. But for the market on our own doorstep...

• Test and Demo

T+Ds should stimulate regional development – not least of our ports. So, to reinvigorate the “stepping stone” concept, calls to ring-fence CfD have gathered momentum. Practically; Hexicon won CfD in AR4 for TwinHub - and we hope for more news soon on this project; Flotation’s WhiteCross is awaiting consent, whilst eyeing AR7; Simply Blue received lease for their Erebus project and, though the AR6 opportunity passed, continue to bang the drum and; Floventis’ Lyr1+2 are quietly working through consent.

• Leasing Round 5

Bids for 3 x 1.5GW projects in the Celtic Sea in TCE’s R5 have been submitted. The very few in the know are sworn to secrecy but we’ve reason to hope that this vital leasing round will be fully subscribed. Speculation only until spring 2025 but we don't need the names of the lucky winners before “no regret” activity. There has been an increasing clammer to articulate “asks” - of the lease winners, government, GB Energy etc… Better though to prepare offers that are ambitious and scalable.

• Leasing Round 6 and Beyond

Nothing specific on R6 yet, but the direction of travel is clearer with the release of The Crown Estate (TCE)’s "Future of Offshore Wind" and "Marine Delivery Routemap". Stakeholder engagement is ongoing, not least with local fishing industries. Until there's more detail we do also have this notable vision document commissioned via the UK FLOW Task Force initiative; "Floating Wind: Anchoring the next generation offshore"

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Upcoming Events

A winter respite from events with FLOW as themes is not unwelcome - but these two offer good-value networking:

• Spotlight on UK Offshore Wind Supply Chain. OWGP’s showcase event on 10th December in London (￡50-￡150)

• The Celtic Sea: Floating Toward Sustainable Horizons. EIC’s conference now postponed til 6th March in Cardiff (￡85-￡150).

Opportunities

No contracts as yet and few grants at the moment (unless you are registered in Scotland, for the CAN DO fund). You may be eligible for business support however through Business Support | Cornwall & Isles of Scilly - Growth Hub (ciosgrowthhub.com) and the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult and sign up to CSP's PIRANHA B2B platform for market insights, to form collaborations and contracts as they arise.

?CSAs - Celtic Sea Acronyms

• CSC - Celtic Sea Cluster. Works on; uniting the region, driving economic growth and championing our supply chain. The executive includes MEW, OREC, CSP, Llywodraeth Cymru / Welsh Government, Cornwall Council and is chaired by Steve Jermy. Increasing engagement with stakeholders across a large, complex geography is helping to forge regional coherence.
• CSDA - Celtic Sea Developer Alliance. A tier within MEW's membership, CSDA is for developers interested in the Celtic Sea as a means to assist collaboration in areas of mutual interest.
• CFC - Cornwall FLOW Commission. Formallly convenes key stakeholders, both local and national, to address shared challenges to the sustainable development of Celtic Sea FLOW. Established by Cornwall Council under the Level 2 devolution deal, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and The Crown Estate are standing members. Jan Ward CBE chairs with independently-appointed expert commissioners.
• CSP - Celtic Sea Power. A team of seventeen working full-time to maximise the benefits of low-carbon energy opportunities for Cornwall and the Celtic Sea region.