Have Chelsea been as poor as results suggest?

Premier League heavyweights Chelsea are languishing in 10th position with just 15 games remaining in the season.?

Following defeat at home to Southampton last weekend, they have lost as many games as they have won, and their goal difference is 0.?

It is a remarkable situation for a squad, which was packed full of international stars even before an extravagant January window, to find themselves in.?

Graham Potter, only installed as manager in September, is under pressure.

But, have the Blues actually been playing as poorly as a team as their results suggest??

To answer that question, we turn to our groundbreaking Incognito data.?

Upon inspecting Chelsea’s performances since an encouraging start to the season turned sour, there are two parts to the story.?

The West London outfit’s struggles began in earnest before the World Cup, losing three consecutive matches ahead of the tournament.

At this point, they really were struggling. In each of the defeats, either their Defence or Attack Score was significantly below the Premier League average.

In the home loss to Arsenal on 6th November, they were particularly poor, receiving significantly below average Attack and Defence Scores of 66.3 and 66.9 respectively.

However, since the league restarted, while results have not substantially improved, their performances have.?

In eight games in this period, Chelsea have only registered one below league average Attack or Defence Score; a defence rating of 67.5 in their 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest on New Year’s Day.?

Furthermore, later in January, Potter’s men actually earned very strong Defence Scores against Crystal Palace (84.5) and Liverpool (88.4), as well as a significantly above average Attack Score (85.4) for their 1-1 draw at West Ham a fortnight ago.?

Based on the quality of their performance, Incognito data placed their chances of winning that game at the London Stadium at a whopping 80%.

Even their latest display against relegation-threatened Saints was far from disastrous.?

Chelsea received above average ratings in all but one of Incognito's eight attacking metrics, with Shot the only exception, while they only received below average ratings in two out of eight defensive metrics.

Clearly, the Blues still need more if they are going to propel themselves up the table, and the lack of a prolific goalscorer is an issue that won't be rectified any time soon.

However, there is evidence to suggest that there is hope for Chelsea fans in the weeks and months to come.

At MPS Data we deliver world-class, innovative forms of data analysis for some of the world’s biggest sporting organisations.

We convert football insight to data, not data insight to football.

To find out more about our incognito platform and how it can help your club make data-informed decisions, please contact us, we'd love to talk!