Haunted Harvest: Produce Markets Face Scary Highs and Supply Challenges this October

BY Mark Campbell, CFA

Week #43, ending October 25th

ProduceIQ Index:? $1.19/pound, flat over prior week

Halloween isn’t the only October tradition commencing this week. The transition out of the Salinas Valley is underway, and produce markets can’t mask their festive fall transition spirits. Although, for some buyers, the markets may feel less like a party and more like a haunted house of horrors.

The ProduceIQ index is flat over the prior week, holding tight to week #42’s record-high prices. Average prices will likely experience a degree of volatility over the next few weeks as holiday demand swells, markets wrestle with the transition to Yuma, and the impacts of Helene and Milton on a variety of commodities are fully realized. Prices typically rise during the next 4 weeks until after the Thanksgiving pull.

Averaging $20 in the East, cucumber prices are at their second-highest average for week #43 in the last ten years. This week’s high average prices are driven by the short supply of slicing cucumbers, especially in the East. Hurricane Helene and Milton have left sizeable gaps in domestic fall production, and Mexican producers are working to fill them. Supply should ease as production picks up in Mexico in November.?

The annual transition from the Salinas Valley to Yuma is off to a fiery start for cauliflower prices. Markets are up +44 percent over the previous week. Fueled by fluctuations in supply and heat-related disease pressure in the old and new growing areas, this will likely be a volatile transition for cauliflower markets.

Driven by short supply, strawberry prices are up +24 percent over the previous week. Growers in the Salinas/Watsonville areas are winding down production, and Central Mexico won’t be ready to bridge the gap until mid-November. Florida’s harvest typically begins in 3-4 weeks, which put early plantings in the line of Hurricane Milton. As a result, expect prices to rise steadily over the next few weeks.

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Bio

Mark Campbell is an industry veteran with over 20 years of produce experience. After earning his MBA from Columbia Business School, he spent seven years as CFO for J&J Family of Farms. He later served as CFO advisor to several produce growers, shippers, and distributors. In this role, Mark saw the impediments that prevent produce growers and buyers from trading with greater access and efficiency. This led him to cofound ProduceIQ.

ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry's only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce.

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.