HASTY DECLARATIONS

HASTY DECLARATIONS
Ad-Dustour - Date: 2016-08-06
By: Oraib Al Rantawi
"As soon as one of the two parties to the conflict raging in and on Syria advances or achieves a breakthrough on some axis or front, its media and political (propaganda) machine quickly and loudly proclaims a decisive victory.
The advancing party's politicians and 'analysts' then begin to weave their scenarios and predictions, all of which usually tend towards a hasty declaration of final victory, after which there would be no need for negotiations, talks or political solutions.
Anyone following the pro-regime media after the recapture of the Castello Road and al-Lairamoun knows what we are talking about– from the glad tidings of Aleppo’s recapture, to celebrating the collapse of imperial and regional projects and delusions, to the dismissal of any political solution. And if modest, they speak of a solution whose limits, criteria and ceiling will be determined by the Syrian army's tanks, or else they reach other similar conclusions that seem premature at best, not to say na?ve and short-sighted.
The regime and its allies' hopes of a decisive victory were revived after the 'breakthrough' on the Aleppo front and the tightened siege on the city a few days ago. Previously, when the Russians waged their 'Sukhoi Storm' [air offensive] operation and the Syrian army achieved its greatest victories in Latakia's northern countryside, the regime's leaders had no qualms revealing their desire to dispatch their tanks to the furthest point on the Syrian map.
This continued until [then Russian permanent representative to the UN] Vitaly Churkin poured cold water over some hot heads. The ceiling of predictions and wagers was lowered once more so as to match the 'truces' and 'lulls' that Moscow – even before Washington – was trying to achieve and implement on all fronts.
Similarly, as soon as the Nusra Front's suicide bombers, the hordes of Jayshul Fateh, and the mostly salafi organizations and military formations approached the Hikma School, and as soon as their fighters climbed a hill here or a mound there, the cheering and the shouts of 'Allahu Akbar' began, applauding 'the Great Battle for Aleppo' or the 'Aleppo ghazwa [Islamic conquest]' as [the Nusra's mufti] 'Abdullah al-Muhaysini put it. The echoes of this advance reverberated in Istanbul and Doha, with the mouths of the opposition Syrian National Coalition, repeating their threats and warnings, and their renewed insistence that Assad should depart 'now, now, and not tomorrow.
This is despite the fact that the climate inside the opposition had revealed splits and reviews even before the siege of Aleppo. We witnessed certain parties speaking on their behalf, proposing a dialogue with the opposition inside Syria and the Syrian regime. This followed a profound and growing sense of being let down by the U.S. and the international community, and the recognition that the revolution, or rather, the country has been ‘hijacked’ by militias at war with each other, and by 'jihadi' groups whose savagery is unrivalled in history from ISIS and the Nusra (which then became the Fateh ash-Sham) Front, to the Noureddin az-ZinkiBrigades, notorious for slitting the throats of children live on air.
So far at least, and despite the enormous cost of the past five terrible years of the Syrian crisis, no one seems convinced that it has no military solution. This includes those who say such a solution is necessary, and those who repeat the slogan that ‘a military solution is impossible’. Everyone speaks of a political solution when the balance of power tilts in favor of their enemies; but as soon as signs of an advance or a breakthrough loom on the horizon even if localized and limited, such hopes and failed wagers are revived.
For the Syrian regime, the political solution that it seeks goes no further than a government re-shuffle by the president. As for the opposition, its crisis stems from the fact that those speaking in its name and negotiating on its behalf, have no foothold on Syrian soil. Meanwhile, the forces that are effective on the ground and that are armed, trained and equipped by Arab and regional states, are wary of any political solution, since this would conflict with their agendas which are based on 'ruling Muslims by Islam,' as [al-Qa’ida leader] Ayman az-Zawahiri put it.
Be that as it may, the fires will continue to rage in Syria, and people, nature, and cities will continue to be its infinite fodder. And this will continue until the various parties reach a profound conviction that 'there can be no military solution' and that a decisive victory is forbidden by international and regional decision. They need to come to the conviction that the crisis will reach the end of the road based on the principle of 'no-winners/no-losers', and that the settlements and deals require 'painful concessions' – to use the expression used by the leaders of the Israeli occupying and settlements’ state –by all parties with no exception.
Aleppo's fires and flames are only an instance of 'negotiation by fire.' Their main task is to serve a political deal that has yet to reach the stage of maturity. And the requirements for a political solution will not mature unless the parties themselves are brought to maturity on the same high fire.
"They will only happen when these parties reach the conviction that they are engaged in nothing but collective suicide, and that they are taking the lives of tens-of-thousands of Syria's innocent men, women, children and old folk in the process.