Harris/2024.. Whistle Stop Campaign Playbook ….Truman’s Strategy to Victory – 1948 General Election

Give ‘em Hell Harry ..a plain spoken Haberdasher from Independence, Missouri ?was greatly underestimated during his presidency

…for he was the first president since William McKinley that did not have a College degree

Even in the 1940’s such an absence of credentialing was a huge liability that his adversaries in the Press and Republicans constantly poked at him

What he lacked in formal education was made up in zeal, high minded ethical principles, and that rural intuitive genius of Common Sense

He was brought up as a Presbyterian and no doubt was well seeped both in biblical and experiential guidance that formed his strong sense of resolve

His Give’ em Hell Harry label came during the his 1948 Presidential Election when Truman was delivering a speech and a supporter yelled

Give ‘em Hell Harry

To which he exclaimed

I don’t give them hell---Just tell the truth about them and they think its Hell

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His presidential opponent was NY Gov Thomas Dewey –former Manhattan District Attorney – Columbia Law Grad

On every level well positioned on a educational and professional level as superior to Truman

More than a liability to Truman, he used this to his advantage during the campaign in which Dewey was heavily favored to win in a landslide

American Conventional Wisdom always seems to be wrong, and such was the case in 1948

…as Truman embarked on a Whistle Stop Campaign Tour in which he delivered 325 speeches and covered 22,000 miles from Sept 6th to Nov 5th 1948 at 238 locations

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Dewey….sequestered with less than forty speeches and never debated Harry head to head

Truman’s competitive spirit captured the attention of the American Public and when the smoke cleared in the wee hours of Nov 3rd

Truman Won 303 Electoral – Dewey 189

Plus, his coattails pulled Democrats to victory in the Senate & House

A Big Big Win !

The now famous November 4th Victory Speech shows Truman holding the Chicago Daily Tribune with the headline

Dewey Defeats Truman

So underestimated was this man by the elite establishment that they were writing his political epitaph before he was even dead.

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Kamala’s Fifteen-Week Campaign juggernaut has the potential of following Truman’s path to victory

Harris, just like Truman, were both wildly underestimated by their over-confident opponents.

The complexity to victory has many calculations that are in flux all the time

Here’s Four Factors

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Timing Support Surge???????????????????????????????????? Not Peaking Too Soon

Kamala is going to spring out of the gate with huge momentum to fill the Biden “Enthusiasm Gap”.

The next three weeks until the DNC she is going to be like a rocket with beaucoup bucks pouring into her campaign coffers

Passionate endorsements from all the Identity Types excited about her being the first this and that

….which will fizzle as it will be overplayed too much

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The 2024 DNC Chicago is going to make DNC Chi-Town 1968 look like a picnic.

Optics here are nearly impossible to predict but if this goes off the rails

….. more what’s going on outside the convention center than inside

…this will be story that the GOP will trumpet zealously as a Safety- Law & Order Issues

?…that is what actually got Nixon elected in 1968

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Joe Biden will become much more popular with a sympathy bump that actually will for the short-term help Harris

Obama’s over-reach in the Biden Coup is a major ding to his brand.

Barak has given the GOP the gift that they have long sought

…..I’m surprised personally….always thought he was much smarter !

Obama’s role as FIXER has given him a very 1870’s Tammany Hall – Boss Tweet – Third Rail Quality

?….the memes on-line tell the tale better than me

Kamala should avoid many appearances with him

….she needs to mint out her own unique brand

…not continue to be the footstool for Barak & Michelle

I’m hoping her able staff steers her in that direction

As she engages voters through the months of September into mid-October I see her building momentum steadily increasing.

Every speech on Reproductive Rights by Her and the misspoken positions of the GOP is expanding her female and youth base

The most impossible thing to calculate is if this ground swell fades too soon

Watched this in 2004 Gov. Benson vs John Lynch

…in the last ten days Lynch surged passed Benson like a racehorse

This aspect possesses so many variables its too hard to predict this far out

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Campaign Gaffes & Missteps???????????????????? Staying on Script

Kamala does not have a natural spontaneous quality …not quick on her feet

This is an enormous liability

Yet it is something not insurmountable

If you have smart teams to direct your narrative but even more importantly to schedule your points of access….this can be fixed

Lot of goofy moments of Harris over the last four years that the GOP is going to beat like a drum

So what…..life is about the here and now…..Kamala do something different!

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In a debate with Trump ….if Harris is schooled correctly the OPTICS favor her by a considerable margin

…#45 course sarcasm especially directed to a woman invokes no shortage of unconscious reciprocity of the huge impact of psychological violence in our society

I wrote an extensive strategy in a previous post

Kamla can score big if she follows these systematics.

Someone like Shapiro debating Vance is also a plus for the Blue Team.

While both candidates are astute

?….Shapiro is more experienced, emotionally measured ...convincing

…..to the thirtyish banter of Vance still learning how it all works

…this inexperience is clearly visible ?

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GOP Campaign Discipline ????????????????????????????Wild Card #45

OMG….here is the gift that keeps on giving

The fact that neither #45 nor his extensive staff can enact Campaign -Message Discipline is like taking three steps forward for the deficiency of your opponent only to take five steps backwards for your own absence of character

It defies the imagination of what, why and when the Red Team decides to jump of a Clift in these actions of Political Haikai…. Stupefying !!

For Team Harris a huge advantage that I would message at each of their self-inflicted errors of judgement

Vance's "Cat Women" Remark is a perfect example of the fact

...that words possess a meaning far more powerful than themselves.

If Trump/Vance actions appear hostile to Kamala/women

…..Her surge sustains and might even become “baked in”

Donald & JD ....if you want your ticket to win.....

Have all your remarks pass through the new Social Relations Consultant you need to hire

she'll keep you on the straight and narrow

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Carville “It’s the Economy”?????????????????????? Prices vs Inflation Story ?

In the final analysis all these points may be purely academic

The Blue Team will deluge the voters with positive economic data to the point of deafness

….no one care

…for this is not “their reality”

This personalize economic reality is the only factor that may ultimately matters to voters

Forget the Inflation …..

Current Prices

…..I’m paying at the Supermarket are a daily reminder of Biden/Harris failure

It may very well be a milestone that she cannot remove

Voter may cast their vote for Trump/Vance just for the opportunity of letting the Red Team return prosperity or at the least economic security to their family

The Economic Issue may just completely neutralize Kamala’s giant bump of support due to the GOP poor position on Dobbs

Prices may be the Headwind that defeats her efforts

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For Harris lots of hurdles ahead that are not insurmountable

but just like Give ‘em Hell Harry

I would much rather go down swinging than to passively meet my fate

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Lao Tzu said

A tree as great as a man’s embrace springs up from a small shout

A terrace nine stories high began with a pile of earth

A journey of a thousand mile starts under one foot

People usually fail when they are on the verge of success

So, give as much care to the end as to the beginning

Then there will be no failure

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In my opinion…

It’s yours to win

Give ‘em Hell Harris

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