Hark! Hark! The EVs are Coming!

Do you fight change??Most of us embrace it at some point, but then again, there are areas where we just hang on and take the ‘old’ ways to the grave with us.??Did you accept the ‘New Coke’ a few decades back??How about digital cameras and watches? How do you feel about the State of Tennessee attempting to legalize marijuana? ??What do you think of social media and climate change? What’s your opinion of the malls across America losing out to Amazon??How about defunding the police??Are you ready for the new age of electric vehicles and driverless semi-tractor trailer big rigs passing you on the interstate? ??As with any of these categories, some are not worth losing sleep over. Some are worth going to the mat.?Pick the battles that really count and hold your ground has always been my philosophy.

This article is a stab for me into new territory: The Electric Vehicle or ‘EV’ for short.?Bear with me, please. ??I’m kind-of dragging my feet … a little anyway here at first.?Face it, I’m a product of the late 60s muscle car era.?My late teen years, ?my 20s and early 30s were shaped by noisy horsepower muscle cars and jet airplanes. I was in a couple of fighter squadrons during my service years.?I like the 2019 commercial on television where Mario Andretti was talking with the young lass and she was telling him all about the attributes of the EV?… and Mario said, “But it doesn’t sound nearly as good?as a Camaro.”?Oh my yes.?Touché, Mario.?My feelings exactamundo.??But, I am a dinosaur. Or as the youngsters today would say, “He’s a boomer.”?(That used to be a compliment.)?The EV is coming as certain as kudzu comes to Flippen, Georgia.?With that in mind, I’ll bring you a few facts.? I’ll give you the truth about a point, not just what I think about the subject.

The first issue, as mentioned, is that the EV is coming.? Just as the Troglodytes fought moving out of their caves, they eventually adapted and moved into a hooch (lean-to, shack, etc.), just like the one they watched Og build. It wasn’t necessarily the fete accompli?during the first few years, but they eventually mastered it.?The same was the case with the cars we drive right now.?The path from a 1908 Ford Model T to a 2021 Roush Mustang has been laden with bumps as well as progress. The same will apply to the EVs that are going to be a way of life.?It won’t be an all-at-once thing, but it’s coming. Get used to it.

Next, the skeptics will tell us that there won’t be enough electricity to handle a nation of EV usage.?We are told every week by EV nay-sayers that our national power grid just will not be able to supply that much power.?It makes for a good argument, ?but the?fossil-fuel pundits have forgotten one big thing.?Most of the people in this big land SLEEP at night.?I’m not Karnak, but I’m guessing that will be the time when most EVs will be re-charged.?That is precisely when the massive power grid of the USA will be very well-prepared to operate and charge all of those EVs.?It’s called a paradigm shift.?We’ll do things differently.?Change.?Capiche?

What about Climate Control inside your EV’s cabin??Wow.?I just don’t know yet.?If an internal combustion engine in a fancy Ford or Chevy has a hard time keeping people warm in the wintertime in Buttzville, North Dakota, (one of the coldest places in the USA), pray tell how the bashful sun lilly ?EV is going to do it.?But I believe they’ll get it accomplished.?At this point,?I’m relying on the EV brain trust to work out that detail.

As you no doubt have been observing, one of the more controversial areas of the EV has to do with just how environmentally friendly they are (will be) … or aren’t.?I’ve done some research which I think you’ll appreciate.?EV opponents claim that EV batteries are way too energy-intensive to manufacture, not to mention the humanitarian capital needed to mine the metals that make up these batteries. There are dozens of articles mentioning this. ?The EVs don’t belch out greenhouse gasses, ?but they do draw energy from the power grid.?However, once both types of vehicles get to cruising down the boulevard, the EV “gains points” in the environmental race.?This is a bit complicated, but follow along.?I’ll make it simple for you.?There are numerous automotive consulting companies which spend thousands of hours computing all kinds of metrics about EVs as well as internal combustion engine cars (like we drive now).?One of these bell weather metrics that has been deployed is called the Life Cycle Emissions Benchmark (LCEB).?They have algorithms for just about anything that goes down the road.?At any rate, these brainiacs have figured out that the LCEB for a smaller gas-fired vehicle will overtake a smaller EV vehicle around 25,000 to 30,000 miles.?As you might have already surmised, larger EV cars and SUV EVs are not as energy efficient as the small ones. I don’t have all these metrics.?I’m guessing that an electric vehicle that can go zero-to-80MPH in two seconds and deliver 3 G’s to your body is not very environmentally friendly.?Just my guess.?I was born at night but not last night. Something like this speed-demon EV that I just described will obviously take much more battery power.???That means it will take many more miles to overcome the emissions (the LCEB) with the battery manufacturing (and eventually recycling).?Two scientists that I read about said that with even these ludicrous EVs (just described), the mileage equilibrium number should be in the vicinity of 55,000-to-65,000 miles. This calculation assumes EV is being charged on a grid that is sourced by at least 50 percent renewable … solar, wind, hydro, etc.?I could not find an exact figure, but it appears that the USA’s renewable electricity is less than 25 percent of the total.?Hmmm.?It appears we have some work to do in this category; maybe a lot of work to do.

There are still a lot of answers to be plugged into this complicated labyrinth before any of us can make a really educated decision on what EV to buy … or if. There is still one humongous area of importance to be ironed out in this EV abyss that we don’t have answers for yet: Battery Technology.?Investors from all over the planet have sunk unthinkable amounts of capital into the development of 21st-and-a-half century battery technologies, hoping for a splendid return.?What is the issue, you’re wondering.?Today’s technology for batteries is referred to as basically liquid electrolyte – where the charging ions travel to and fro through the battery as it charges and discharges;?it’s fluid .. you know, liquid.?Hence the name, liquid electrolyte. ??The other kind of battery technology being developed is solid state cells. ?(Keep an eye on this one.?There will be new startup companies looking at this area of science, all over the South.?It’s coming.?Trust me.) Solid state cells, over the long haul, seemingly offer consumers the promise of lower risk than the explosion-ridden lithium technologies as well as greater energy density. ??The solid state battery also will probably operate at reduced costs versus what we have today.?If you’re really into environmental things and believe in the futuristic merit of EV-feng-shui, then my counsel to you is to ‘hold your horses’ and watch what develops over the next ten years.?Your jumping into an EV at the early onset is not going to save the planet.?There will be plenty of plutocrats who will be early adapters … and money means almost nothing to these folks.?If you’re trying to slog it out in your job and provide for your family and yet want to be environmentally positive, my advice is to wait just a few more years.?Watch and see what the new-to-come solid state EV is going to be.?I guarantee you, this EV will not be a fad.?It will be the way of the future, especially some decades down the road.?Be smart and invest your money wisely and then spend it wisely. ?If you’re one of those who says something to the effect that your family will buy an EV ‘over your dead body,’ then you might want to tell the undertaker to bury you in the back of your Pontiac Aztek. :) The EV for the long haul is coming. Bank on it.

About the Author: Tom Tucker is an honorably-discharged Vietnam veteran who is principal of Tom Tucker Resources, LLC. Prior to this, he retired after a career as a senior executive for two Fortune 200 corporations. He earned a Ph.D. and B.S. in applied science and an MBA in finance. He is a three-decade aviator whose hobby is 60s Corvettes.?He has been married to Janet for 48 years.