The Hardest Decisions: Are you ready for them?
I have always been curious about big decisions; how they were made, what factors played into how an event or series of events unfolded, and what can be learned from them. This interest of mine was an important part of my law enforcement career, particularly as I worked as a Crime Scene Investigator (CSI) and as a Detective. Self-admitted nerd alert, I like to read NTSB reports from major accidents and was greatly interested by the 9/11 Commission Report and the large after-action report after the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013.?
I have also applied this inquisitiveness in other roles where process improvement and problem identification/solving were critical. In many cases, there is a key point where a critical decision is made, either quickly or after deliberation. It is how those moments are handled that I have particular interest. Some call them “decision points.”?
George W. Bush wrote a book with that exact title reflecting on key moments in his life and particularly during his presidency. Whether or not you’re a fan of his, I found that type of writing engaging, and seek other stories of that perspective. It is for this reason that I’ve found biographies and especially personal memoirs to be most engaging. I like to hear from the person first-hand.?
After reading President Bush’s book, and many others, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about hard decisions. What’s the hardest decision that anyone has ever made? How do you begin to quantify that??
What makes decisions hard??
Before we dive into the factors that make decisions hard, it's important to understand Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. The hierarchy consists of five levels, with the most basic needs at the bottom of the pyramid and the highest-level needs at the top. The levels are as follows:
According to Maslow, self-preservation is one of the most basic needs humans have. Decisions that go against self-preservation can be physically difficult to overcome, such as self-sacrifice (such as diving on a grenade). Decisions where others could be at risk or killed are some of the hardest decisions to make because they can go against the need for safety and protection.
There are several factors that can make a decision harder to make.?
Consequences: The consequences of a decision can be significant and long-lasting, making it harder to choose. What will happen if I do this? What happens if I do not? The end result is often the most obvious factor in a choice.?
External and Internal Pressures: External pressures, such as societal or cultural expectations, and internal pressures, such as personal values and beliefs, can influence decision-making.
Stress: Stressful situations can make decision-making more difficult because it can be harder to think clearly.
Physical Condition of the body at the time of the choice: Physical conditions such as fatigue or illness can also impact decision-making and the ability to accurately weigh and consider information to inform a decision
Examples of Exceptionally Hard Decisions
Given all of these factors above, let’s take a quick look at some notably difficult, high-profile decisions from the last century
President Harry Truman’s Decision to use the Atomic Bomb - 1945
In August 1945, in the last act of World War II, President Truman made the decision to drop two atomic bombs on Japan. He chose this course after considering the potential loss of life in a traditional invasion of Japan, and to bring an end to the war as quickly as possible. The decision remains controversial. The bombings did bring about the end of the war, though tens of thousands of people were killed and the use of nuclear weapons in war has been the subject of many on-going ethical debates. President Truman was affected by the consequence of this decision, pressures, and stress, certainly.?
The Cuban Missile Crisis - 1962
Possibly the closest the world has come to open nuclear war, one man in particular can be credited with preventing it:. In 1962, the Soviet Union had deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba, which the United States saw as a direct threat. The U.S. responded with a naval blockade of Cuba, and tensions between the two superpowers escalated rapidly. On October 27, 1962, a U.S. Navy destroyer, the USS Beale, began dropping depth charges near a Soviet submarine, B-59, that was lurking in the waters off Cuba. The crew of the B-59 believed that war had broken out, and its captain, Valentin Savitsky, ordered the submarine to prepare to launch a nuclear torpedo at the U.S. Navy ships.
Vasily Arkhipov, who was the second-in-command of the B-59, argued against the launch, insisting that the crew should wait for orders from Moscow before taking such a dramatic step. He was able to persuade Savitsky to stand down and not launch the torpedo, thus preventing nuclear war between the two superpowers. I’m certain that like Truman, Arkhipov was heavily influenced by the consequence of his choice, stress, time pressure, and likely his own physical condition living as a highly stressed naval officer.?
Ford Pardons Nixon
After President Richard Nixon resigned from office in 1974, his successor, Gerald Ford, made the controversial decision to pardon Nixon from all crimes he may have committed during his presidency. Firstly, Ford was under immense pressure from the public and political establishment to hold Nixon accountable for the Watergate scandal, which had rocked the country and undermined public trust in government institutions. Many people believed that Nixon should be prosecuted for his role in the scandal, and Ford's decision to pardon him was seen by some as a betrayal of the American people.
Secondly, Ford was concerned that a prolonged legal battle over Nixon's role in the Watergate scandal would further divide the country and damage its institutions. He believed that the best way to move forward was to put the scandal behind them and focus on addressing the challenges facing the country.
Finally, Ford's decision to pardon Nixon was a difficult one because it risked damaging his own political career. By pardoning Nixon, Ford angered many members of his own party and alienated some of his supporters.
领英推荐
Despite these challenges, Ford ultimately decided to pardon Nixon, believing that it was in the best interests of the country. While the decision was controversial at the time, it has since been seen by many as a courageous act of political leadership.
Another Nuclear Near-Miss - 1983
In September 1983, Stanislav Petrov was working as a duty officer at the Soviet Union's early warning center when the center's computers alerted him to a potential missile attack from the United States. The computers indicated that five ballistic missiles had been launched and were heading towards the Soviet Union. Petrov was responsible for deciding whether to report the warning up the chain of command and launch a retaliatory nuclear strike.
Despite the urgency of the situation and the pressure he was under, Petrov decided not to report the warning as a genuine attack. He believed that the warning was a false alarm, given the small number of missiles detected and the fact that the system had malfunctioned in the past. His decision not to report the warning prevented a retaliatory strike by the Soviet Union and likely averted a nuclear war between the superpowers.
Just like Arkhipov, Petrov’s decision was made in the face of extreme time pressure, stress, and consequence.?
Overall, these hard decisions were made based on different factors such as saving lives, preventing a nuclear war, ending a war, or protecting national interests. However, they all required the individuals involved to weigh the potential consequences and make a difficult choice. There are many more that you could point to, across the world and over the course of history.?
Making Better Decisions
There’s a good chance you won’t have to make the decision to launch nuclear weapons or pardon a felonious former President. Even still, you have made hard decisions in your own life and will likely face more in the future. What can you learn from these notable examples? Here are some things to consider as you face down daunting choices:?
2. Identify the stakeholders: It's important to identify the people or groups who will be affected by the decision. This includes individuals or groups who may be impacted directly or indirectly by the decision. These people can also be important sources for perspectives to inform your decision.?
3. ??Evaluate the options: Once you have gathered the necessary information, it's important to evaluate all the possible options. This includes considering the advantages and disadvantages of each option and the potential consequences of each decision. Be sure to also consider that there may be options you haven’t yet identified. Be exhaustive.?
4. ?Consult with others: Seeking the advice and opinions of others can be helpful in making a difficult decision. This includes experts, colleagues, or trusted friends or family members who can provide a different perspective.
? During the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy had several phone conversations with President Eisenhower, whom he respected as a former President and as a military strategist.?
5. Consider your values: Making a difficult decision often requires weighing different values against one another. It's important to consider your own values and how they align with the decision you are making.
6. Make the decision: Once you have gathered all the necessary information, considered the different options, consulted with others, and weighed your values, it's time to make a decision. Remember that making a difficult decision often involves taking risks, and there may not be a clear "right" or "wrong" answer.
7. ??Evaluate the outcome: Finally, it's important to evaluate the outcome of the decision and learn from the experience. This can help inform future decisions and improve the decision-making process. A critical part of the process that is often overlooked.?
?By exploring the factors that make decisions hard, such as consequences, external and internal pressures, stress, and physical condition, we gain a better understanding of the challenges that come with making critical decisions. Ultimately, the ability to make difficult decisions is a valuable skill that can be developed through experience and a deeper understanding of the factors that contribute to them.
What about you? What is the hardest decision you’ve had to make? What made it so difficult??What advice do you have for others for making tough calls? I'd like to know.
Thank you for reading. Please like, comment, share, and subscribe.?