HARD NEW WORLD

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The doomsday clock, a symbol created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to represent the probability of a man-made global catastrophe, is set semi-regularly, a metaphorical action about to be taken once again as a result. of the global risks that manifest in 2022.

And these risks are considerable and constantly evolving. In terms of the business world, 2022 offers multiple risk scenarios, led by the third year of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the effects of climate change, the latter seen by many as the greatest long-term threat facing faces. Humanity, and the growing impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

As far as the short term is concerned, the outlook looks dire. According to the "Global Risks Report 2022" of the World Economic Forum, highlights the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (The Global Risks Report), 84% of the professionals surveyed expect that next year will be characterized by a constant volatility and multiple surprises or fractured trajectories that will separate the relative winners and losers.

Overall, the WEF's new patch report (published before the events in Ukraine and republished in the third week of March) suggests six key risk areas:

1 The scars of COVID-19: Social scars compound the challenges of effective national policymaking and reduce international cooperation.

2 Imminent debt crisis: the debt burden is high and public budgets will continue to be strained after the pandemic.

3 The failure of climate action: Deepening social fractures and economic risks are undermining the world's ability to contain climate change.

? Connectivity blind spots: Cybersecurity failure will continue to strain the world's digital systems, due to new forms of human interaction and remote work.

? Growing rivalries: Geo-economic confrontations will emerge as a critical threat to the world and one of the most potentially serious risks.

"The struggles of governments to contain the pandemic and the lack of global collaboration offer a sobering view of the prospects for managing future global risks," says George Soros.

“When it comes to business and industry, even companies with financial wiggle room sometimes struggle to meet environmental, social and governance (ESG) commitments”

*This is crucial for the survival of the human race and must be reversed by incorporating it into the agenda of the daily habits of corporations and society.*

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Business Behaviors

Companies are under increasing pressure to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, adapt to social and technological change, and remain vigilant in the face of growing threats such as cyberattacks.

We are currently facing multiple interconnected and immediate crises.

“In order to respond to the relentlessly volatile landscape facing businesses today, agility is the order of the day;?that is, the ability to react quickly and positively in response to change, cultivating a sense of urgency to address the risks we face as a global community.”

It is the path that all companies should include in their toolkit.

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At the same time, it should be noted that while the challenges facing businesses in the first few months of 2022 come from a variety of sources; Like inflation, they have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, "rather than being primarily triggered by it".

Many factors combine in the manifestation of rising prices and inflation. Says Clive Webb, ACCA Global's head of business management insights. “We have seen energy costs rise rapidly during 2021, with oil and gas prices reaching record or near-record levels”.

Political instability is also having an impact on prices. In addition, the shortage of leadership talent continues to be a major factor.

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Additional Risks Scenarios

While there is common ground with the WEF report, in its analysis of the global risk landscape – Risk Map 2022: “Main Risks” –

Risk Control in this 2022 presents a series of scenarios, which are described as the risks that companies need to Plan and Mitigate from 2022.

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A) Great Geopolitical Repositioning

“Will take place”.

In 2022, the world will start to spin differently.

Countries and companies will begin to form, and will be formed by, a New Global Geopolitical Order.

This transition will take time, but it will generate considerable disruption as countries, blocs and hemispheres begin to interact in ways that are totally different from those known historically.

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Uncertainty

“We have uneasily adjusted to “the uncertainty of all things” in recent years. An issue that will persist as we leave the geopolitical comfort zone of past decades.”

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B) The Emergence of Dysfunctional

“Fragile and Vulnerable States”

The growing number of dysfunctional, vulnerable and fragile states around the world is the main security risk for companies and states from 2022 onwards.

The Critical Factor for this risk has been the COVID-19 pandemic, which has further diminished the ability of these states to absorb and manage external shocks and internal challenges.

C) COVID-19 and Terrorism

Terrorism in 2022 and beyond will be shaped by two major events: the pandemic and the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.?These two developments pose different types of threats, but both contribute to an increasingly diverse threat landscape.?Businesses must use the lessons learned to effectively monitor and mitigate terrorist threats in 2022.

D) Forced Migrations

They will have a real impact on the development of recipient countries. This incidence is manifested in the following factors:

1) Public spending will be increased, for the care and repositioning of refugees.

2) The famine and unemployment of these people will generate civil chaos and a health emergency.

3) Violence for the need to survive and for feeling discriminated against.?

?) Diseases to which people in states of social vulnerability are exposed.

?) Public spending in recipient countries will produce a drop in GDP, encouraging inflation and unemployment.

E) Cyber-Threats

Companies facing a world of cyber-threats without control. In 2022, the escalation of cyber threats globally will become a matter of survival for businesses. States are failing to deter aggressive behavior as offensive cyber capabilities proliferate among a growing number of state and non-state actors. Insurers question the feasibility of offering coverage for disruptive cyber events.

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The Vanguard of Climate Change

As COVID-19 continues to put pressure on business operations globally, climate change and its associated impacts (extreme weather events and natural disasters) will disproportionately influence politics, economic policy, urbanization, infrastructure and capital investments. From 2022 onwards, as well as combined impacts on business continuity.

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The ESG Stampede

From 2022 onwards, companies will be under pressure for a commitment to intensify their climate transition activities, along with education by governments for responsible citizenship.

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As governments transfer ESG (Environmental Social and Governance) commitments to the private sector through regulatory action. ?Added to pressure from investors, activists, consumers and “governments striving to make up for lost time on climate action”, they will hit companies and the broader market hard.

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“As economies recover from the pandemic, the global risk agenda has diversified away from COVID-19 towards a broader range of threats”

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Rising energy prices and global energy shortages are directly intertwined with climate change issues.?These are two of the clearest challenges that lie ahead.

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“Companies will face geopolitical disruption as a result of the Ukraine invasion.”