Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing + More

What happened this week?

• Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing - In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing, which would mean a recession, it isn’t even headed for a soft landing, which would mean a prolonged period of low economic growth
• Drilling For Oil on the NYSE - Intense political pressure from Federal and State levels of government is scaring oil and gas companies away from drilling for environmental reasons!
• Hawks Pounce as Doves Cry?- Investors entered 2023 hopeful and, in some cases, even convinced that the fight against inflation was largely a 2022 story with both the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) set to end their tightening efforts with an eventual pivot towards rate cuts in H2/2023 if not sooner.
• The Indexing Timebomb?- You’ve probably heard a lot of active managers complaining about how hard it is to beat the index these days. It’s difficult to explain the mathematics behind it, even in terms a layman would understand, but just know the more the market is indexed, the harder it gets to beat the index. Which naturally increases the incentive to passively invest.

Mike Green: The Fed Overreacted to 2022's Inflation Pulse. Now what?

In this episode,?Simplify?Asset Management's Chief Strategist,?Michael Green, a well-known observer of probabilistic market and economic outcomes, provides a deep dive into the current economic landscape and investment strategy. The market is in a state of uncertainty due to various factors, such as inflation, recession, and passive investing. Green discusses the Federal Reserve's actions and its potential impact on the economy, and explains his thoughts on why, in his opinion, the Fed has overreacted in terms of the bluntness and depth of it's policy response, and what that means for investors and the economy going forward.

UP NEXT: Aahan Menon on Raise Your Average

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