Hard Facts about Hard Brexit

Theresa May knew it. Gina Miller knew it. Michel Barnier knew it. There never was such a thing as a soft Brexit. We are now inheriting the 'benefits' of a hard Brexit though Brexit's delinquent and dysfunctional offspring ... the cost of living crisis, a return to climate vandalism, a fire sale to other trading blocs, the sale of the century (NHS), skill shortages, recession and depression, breaking international law on human rights, pay freezes, strikes, Brexit red tape, travel, residence and work restrictions, the slow fragmentation of Brexit Britain into 4 + nations, demonisation of 'forins' and a retreat on our science and technology base, to name but a few of the effects. And to quote The Carpenters, "We've only just begun". Biz Catalyst 360 and UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) offer glimpses of what's to come in the socio-economic, political, legal, technological and environmental suicide formerly known as Brexit.

Hard Facts about Hard Brexit

The upward curve towards the rejection of Brexit by the vast majority of people will be asymptotic, up to perhaps a residual hardcore of racists and people clutching Brexit unicorns (85% ++ insert your own number?), but it is climbing rapidly. There will be a huge social desirability to be on the 'winning side' once Brexiteers realise that they are no longer a majority. I find that leave voters often?move in herds which is why a study of anthropology and tribes is helpful in terms of changing minds on Brexit. I had an interesting chat about 'in and out' groups with a teacher of psychology called Elvis on this recently. This is why I always target the leaders of social groupings in cafes and pubs for Brexorcism purposes.

Once we reach a 2/3 majority rejection of Brexit, MPs will naturally become twitchy about their seats and their silence on Brexit. We have witnessed a coalition of silence by the Conservatives and Labour on the subject, in an attempt to erase the word Brexit from public discourse. This explains the bizarre behaviour of a pub barmaid the other evening when one of her customers brought the word up after reading the hoarding on my bicycle !! See my article The last remaining Brexiteers for more on recent attempts to silence me and my work. Brexit is the disaster which won't go away, and, like it or loathe it, the next General Election will be fought on the fallout of Brexit, as outlined in my 'Brexit Iceberg'.

All of the symptoms / effects at the top of the iceberg have their major roots in Brexit. To a lesser extent, some of these issues are impacted by COVID-19 and Russia but the major contribution comes from Brexit in most cases. As a result, the resilience of UK plc is much lower than other countries who have suffered from the pandemic and the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine. This is not a one-off hit. The effects of Brexit are long ranging and deep.

Brutal Youth

Even though Brexit has failed, we must work hard to address what I call 'learned helplessness' - the belief that there is nothing we can do about Brexit. We can and we must. Join us on Wed 2 August at 8pm UK time via ZOOM to discuss strategies to address Brexit apathy.

Action points

Our main focus must be to work on Keir Starmer and the Labour party. It would be a tragedy to get the Tories out of power only to be left with Brexit. Frankly I don't believe the mealy mouthed Labour apologists when they say they will fix Brexit in 2032 and address PR. There will be little worth saving in 2032 and Brexit will be a distant memory for most people. Labour appear not to understand the impact of strategy over time. Also a Labour party that is elected by an unfair electoral system is pathologically unlikely to want to reform the system that led them to victory. I have asked hundreds of Labour party members / councillors the question "What is the difference between a red and blue Brexit?" No one can answer the question. Read Hard Labour.

I urge you to join Gina Miller and The True and Fair party. They have a clear position on Brexit as outlined below. They present no threat to Labour due to carefully targeting of seats. They can also leverage reforms from a small but effective base. If you are thinking that 'size is important' in politics, think again. The DUP held Theresa May to ransom and continue to do so with Rishi Sunak. Caroline Lucas punched well above her weight as the only Green party MP. And Nigel Farage gave us Brexit without ever being elected!!

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