A harbinger for EVs in 2025

Issue #282

A harbinger is a signal of what is to come in future. Spotting a robin is considered as the arrival of the spring and the end of a cold winter. The following are some recent such harbingers in the electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem as we begin 2025.

Hybrid-powered vehicles are proving more popular than battery-only ones in China, even as consumers shift away from gas-only cars. EV batteries might have longer lives than previously thought, according to research from Stanford University. Autonomous vehicles are more applicable in niche areas like industrial applications than cars on the road. Some of America’s biggest manufacturers are backing away from forklifts, with demand for autonomous vehicles growing. At the same time, the decade-long attempt by automakers to transform into technology and mobility companies has reached a crossroads. The Indian government is aiming to facilitate indigenously-developed technology to become self-reliant in the EV sector. Researchers and journalists tracking the downfall of battery maker Northvolt share the view that it was at least partly caused by a global dip in demand for EVs. India's EV industry is gearing up for a transformation with a focus on long-range models, as consumers demand vehicles that can cover 300-680 km per charge. Below are some recent updates, some positive, some negative, in the EV sector that could act as a harbinger for what to expect in 2025.

Hybrids leading the way

Hybrid-powered vehicles are proving more popular than battery-only ones in China, even as consumers shift away from gas-only cars, full-year data show. Market leader BYD said well over half of the 4.3 million passenger cars it sold in 2024 were hybrid-powered. That’s a reversal from 2023. Chinese electric car startups that have so far only sold purely battery-powered vehicles generally delivered fewer cars in 2024 than companies which also sold hybrid models. - CNBC

Longer lasting EV batteries

EV batteries might have longer lives than previously thought, according to new research from Stanford University.?Real-world driving conditions are less degenerative to EV batteries than lab tests, according to new research that suggests batteries may have longer lives than previously thought. - Auto News

Autonomous material handling vehicles

Forklifts hurt thousands of workers each year. Factories are seeking alternatives. The vehicles are involved in nearly 100 deaths each year; companies say demand growing for autonomous versions. Some of America’s biggest manufacturers are backing away from forklifts. Whirlpool’s washing-machine factory in Clyde, Ohio for example has eliminated forklifts from its production area. The vehicles have been integral to factories and warehouses for more than a century, but now companies are aspiring to go “forklift-free” to improve productivity and safety. Federal statistics show that each year around 7,500 workers are injured in forklift-related collisions, tip-overs and other mishaps, while nearly 100 are killed. - WSJ

Autonomous driving at crossroads

The decade-long attempt by legacy automakers to transform into technology and mobility companies has reached a crossroads. They placed billion-dollar bets on electric powertrains and autonomous vehicles, but they've failed to pay off, and now their ability to innovate is hampered by global trade tensions and increasingly fierce competition. General Motors' Cruise for example drops its robotaxi effort. - Auto News

Indigenising EVs

The Indian government is aiming to facilitate indigenously-developed technology to become Atmanirbhar (self-reliant) in the growing EV sector by cutting dependence on the China-led supply chain. The government's research arm aims to nurture and develop a homegrown ecosystem including innovative battery technologies, power electronics, and charging infrastructure. The foundation's board offers high-level strategic directions for innovation, promoting research and development (R&D), and entrepreneurship in multiple areas. It has a mandate to prepare a roadmap for short, medium, and long-term for seeding and growing research activities in academic institutions. - ET Auto

Battery factories and EV sales

Swedish start-up Northvolt opened its flagship battery production plant in 2022, after signing multi-billion euro contracts with carmakers. But it ran into major financial troubles last year, reporting debts of $5.8bn (￡4.6bn) in November, and filing for bankruptcy in the US, where it had been hoping to expand its operations. Many researchers and journalists tracking the downfall share the view that it was at least partly caused by a global dip in demand for EVs. In September Volvo abandoned its target to only produce EVs by 2030, arguing that "customers and markets are moving at different speeds". Meanwhile China, the market leader in electric batteries, has been able to undercut Northvolt's prices. Missing production targets (a key factor in BMW pulling out of a €2bn deal in June), expanding too quickly, and the company's leadership have also been widely cited as factors fuelling the crisis. - BBC

EV demand for long-range cars

India's EV industry is gearing up for a transformation with a focus on long-range models, as consumers demand vehicles that can cover 300-680 km per charge.?Declining battery costs and enhanced driving experiences, particularly in the SUV segment, are set to boost EV adoption beyond the current 2.5% market share. Almost 75% of electric passenger vehicle buyers in 2024 opted for vehicles with 300-500-km range and another over 10% went for higher range EVs. The rising preference for longer-range vehicles signals that consumers are now viewing EVs as primary vehicles rather than urban runabouts. - ET Auto

Image sources for the banner image on top: Robin - Alexis Lours, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Electric car - Michael Movchin / Felix Müller, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons