Happy(?) Brexit day

Hola from Barcelona!

Yes, I’m ‘celebrating’ our initial divorce proceedings from the EU by being in…the EU. And lovely and sunny it is too.

Of course, Brexit won’t stop us visiting all the lovely places in the EU that we all enjoy visiting. Particularly this year when free movement still continues (until Dec 31st ) and there’s still time to get a job in the EU, or retire there – if you think benefits will continue to be paid,. You can still, this year, take part in the Erasmus Study Programme and apply for Arts or Science funding. So for this year at least, there won’t be much of a change if we want to cross the Channel at any point.

We’ll be gearing up, though, for new passports (we’ll have to have at least six months on our passports from next year to visit EU countries), queueing at immigration and all the other, much larger, changes that will gradually seep into our day-to-day living.

Finances?

When it comes to our finances…frankly who knows? But some of my predictions are:

·     A gradual decline in the state of the economy over the first ten years or so, after which (maybe after 15) things will start to pick up.

·     A much cheaper pound which will be good for exports but bad for imports  so higher prices in the supermarkets and possibly at the petrol pump as we are still net importers of goods. It will also mean that our holidays abroad are likely to be more expensive, but tourism at home should benefit.

·     Government borrowing is likely to increase enormously as it tries to shore up businesses at home, aiming to keep South, Middle, North of this country happy (until it gets bored of this or indeed the costs outweigh the benefits). It will also need to convince foreign companies to keep their factories here and pay for protracted trade negotiations both with the EU and with the rest of the world.

·     At some point in the next year or two there is likely to be a crash of some sort – either economic or stock market. This is not particularly because of Brexit, more because of a) economic volatility in the world generally and b) because we’re due one (and have been for a couple of years now). However, a bullish market in the US could keep things going for longer.

·     Property prices will go up for a while at least as there are still many, many people who want to own their own home and many others who want to invest in a buy-to-let and a lot of them have been putting it off for the last three years.

·     Consumers will continue to hug their money to themselves which will hit the high street and other businesses hard. This, in turn, will increase job insecurity and further put people off from spending.

All together it’s a tricky scenario that I see for the next decade or so.

Take a new view

I’m perfectly willing to be proved wrong. My Brexiter friends would certainly disagree with some of the above but only time will tell.

Whatever does happen, though, a few things I recommend for consumers to do day-to-day:

·     Follow the money. We’re not stuck in the UK even if we don’t have free movement in the EU from next year onwards. There are always ways to work in other countries if you’re flexible. Nursing, nannying, construction, IT, investment, engineering and many other types of work are welcomed with open arms in many countries around the world – particularly the rich and growing ones. If you’re worried about keeping your job here, follow the money in other countries. There’s always a way.

·     Save and get out of debt. Pay down debts as fast as possible (particularly overdrafts as the 40-50% rates will be coming in in March for most banks) and save more ‘just in case’. The bigger your savings safety net, the more protected you are if things go pear-shaped.

·     Don’t panic. There will be good coming along with the volatility – it’s not all negative. There will be new opportunities created by the new situation. Some of them could be really exciting