Hanlon's Razor - Conspiracy or Complacency

A few months ago, I discussed the principle of Occam's Razor, which basically says that if given multiple outcomes in a situation the simplest of explanations is usually right. Last weekend our former President, Donald Trump was nearly assassinated and since many conspiracies have been circling because of how obtuse law enforcement and secret service seemed to behave despite how obvious the threat to even the most untrained eye.

As I contemplated the potential cause, motives and possibility of a plot to kill the 45th and current republican candidate for our 47th US President I stumbled upon this interesting Hanlon's Razor.

Hanlon's Razor states: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." In simpler terms, it suggests that the cause of a problem is more likely due to negligence or incompetence rather than a deliberate intent to cause harm.

I have no clue what happened last week in PA but I do find this principle applicable to my interactions with businesses I work with on a day to day basis.

As a business consultant I have to avoid the urge to make assumptions. My job is to gather evidence before I draw conclusions. That said, I've always got my eye out for bad actors that could be the cause of operational and cultural problems. Let's be frank, it's just easier to attribute setbacks or failures to intentional sabotage or unethical behavior. However, Hanlon's Razor teaches us to look for simpler explanations before jumping to conclusions. This mindset shift is crucial for consultants tasked with diagnosing and solving organizational problems.

So here's what I've learned in my experience dealing with hundreds of complex enterprises as an employee, vendor, and IT consultant.

1. Project Delays: When a project misses its deadline, the immediate reaction might be to suspect the team of laziness or lack of commitment. However, more often than not, we humans are horrible at estimating time to completion. Unrealistic time frames usually are a culmination of resource constraints, or unforeseen obstacles—factors that stem from a lack of competence or foresight rather than intentional delay.
2. Budget Overruns: It's easy to assume financial mismanagement, manipulation or personal favor when a project goes over budget, isn't funded adequately or loses funding midstream. Hanlon's Razor urges us to first consider other factors like underestimated costs, market fluctuations, or inadequate budget planning.
3. Poor Communication: Miscommunications can sometimes be perceived as an attempt to mislead or withhold information. Yet, they are frequently the result of insufficient skills in communication or misunderstandings that arise from different interpretations. Consider the medium for communication, form and function and you may be surprised to see bottlenecks cleared and crossed wires untangled.

As a business operations consultant, applying Hanlon's Razor means taking a step back and assessing situations with an objective lens. It involves:

• Thorough Analysis: Before concluding malice, conduct a detailed analysis of the situation to uncover all possible causes.
• Empathy: Understand the challenges faced by individuals involved and consider their limitations and pressures.
• Constructive Feedback: Instead of assigning blame, focus on providing constructive feedback and solutions to prevent future occurrences.

In most cases the problem really occurs where organization behavior intersects with operations. In this case we find that it's not only the resource issues that cause the problem. It's the complacency that allows the known deficiencies to continue until there's an emergency which should not be a necessary precursor to our call to action.

At the end of the day I always try embrace the 4 Agreements. And I find considering Hanlon's Razor helps us to not take things personally which is probably the most important agreement of them all. It promotes a healthier, more constructive consulting environment where the focus shifts from blame to understanding and improvement. As we navigate the complexities of business operations, let this principle guide us toward more effective and empathetic problem-solving.

That said, I love a good conspiracy theory and it seems that many of them end up being true.