Hang on to the Panadol - You may need it
As the world watches yesterday's events and cries "Stop the roundabout - I want to get off", I can't help but think that we are only at the very beginning of what could potentially be a very eventful month, the likes of which the world has never seen before.
Currently the world focus is on the USA, pondering with nervous anticipation what the worldscape might look like with Trump at the helm of the planet's biggest economy. How will economies play out as Trump takes over the reins to determine international relations? And with Trump now Commander and Chief of the World Police, what will be the new world order when it comes to stepping in to hot spots and places of conflict?
But the laser focus of the world will soon move to Europe. On December 4, Italy goes to the polls to determine whether they stay in the EU, and as very recent history has shown, disillusioned people seek change.
So assume Italy does vote to walk out the door of the EU. Merkel then needs to respond. This could rock the Union to the core. With the combined EU being four times the size of the USA economy, this could be a 10 on the Richter scale, and make the current US events appear little more than a tremor. Potentially the Euro could go into free-fall, and then there's the small issue of the whole thing being underpinned by $75tril in derivatives (putting that number into perspective, the annual GDP of the entire world is $74tril).
The Trump issue is causing headaches. The Italy issue could cause migraines!
Stay tuned. The Italian referendum on December 4 could pass without issue. Or we could all end up reaching for the Panadol.
Director at Sapiens Innovations Pty Ltd
8 年Thanks for the post, Bryan. Like many people, I have been pondering how the recent election in the United States will impact on Australia, and took my eyes off what is happening elsewhere in the world. Focus shifted!