Handicapping Today’s Nigeria Presidential Elections

Nigerians begin to head to the polls in a few hours to cast their votes in the first of two elections. Although they will be electing a new National Assembly as well as a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari whose term expires on 29th May 2023, and is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, all eyes are on the presidential election, the most keenly contested presidential election in the country’s recent history.

There are eighteen candidates seeking to succeed Mr. Buhari. Of the eighteen, 3 are deemed “leading candidates” and one a dark horse: Peter Obi of the until-recently-little-known Nigeria Labour Party (LP); Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the governing All Progressive Congress (APC), and Atiku Abubakar of the non-governing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The dark horse is Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

So, who will win the presidential contest?

Peter Obi of the insurgent Labour Party is predicted by most independent opinion polls to emerge the winner of the presidential elections. Some, later obviously sponsored polls by the two main parties, APC and PDP, predict victory for their candidate. Independent of what the polls say, my own reading of the contest is that Peter Obi, the Nigeria Labour Party candidate, will win if the elections are free and fair. I fear that they are unlikely to be so given the assertion of “Emi Lokan” by both Atiku and Tinubu.

Three factors will, in my view, drive Obi to victory. The first is demographics. Obi voters are young, educated, vibrant, largely not very burdened by ethnicity and religion, very passionate about their country, very committed, and very unafraid of violence. The generation that dared and defied the might of the Federal Government of Nigeria at Lekki Toll Gate during the EndSARS protest is not about to run away and hide from political thugs in an election that will determine whether they should JAPA and abandon their parents to age and die alone in old-age poverty or stay and build a better, secure future for themselves on the land and in the country they love.

Obi voters will come out in large numbers and vote. They will stay to monitor the elections and will use technology (their smartphones) to do so. Tinubu and Atiku voters are likely to be relatively old, conservative, and not as passionate as Obi voters are given the trauma that the country has been through in the past 8 years. Being older, Atiku and Tinubu voters, are probably very risk averse. Older citizens are also more fearful of violence and will likely stay home if the probability of election day violence is relatively high.

The second possible driver of an Obi victory is religion. Nigeria has two dominant religions – Christianity and Islam. Some clerics of both religions have urged their followers to vote for the candidate who shares their faith. It is likely that many voters will abide by this guidance. For Christian voters, there is only one leading candidate, Peter Obi. But there are three leading Muslim candidates: Atiku, Tinubu, and Kwankwaso. To that should be added a fourth, Kola Abiola. If the majority of voters follow the guidance of their religious leaders, Muslim voters have a serious choice problem. Behind which of the leading Muslim candidates should they line up? I suspect that the Muslim vote will be split among 4 candidates while Obi may get the bulk of Christian votes plus some Muslim votes. (The leading Muslim candidates recognized this problem during the campaign, which is why they all made an effort to be seen with the Archbishop of Canterbury during their Chatham House junkets.) If turnout is large and if Obi gets most of the Christian votes, he wins the election on the first ballot. (For the two leading Muslim candidates, the best outcome will be a run-off with Obi.) His challenge today is to get as many Christian voters across the country as possible to troop out en masse and vote. Obi could be helped in this regard by the repeal of the stay-at-home order in predominantly Christian Eastern Nigeria by the secessionist IPOB. IPOB’s Simon Ekpa, who lives and thrives in Finland and now detained by Finnish Police, had ordered a stay-at-home in “BiafraLand” (wherever that is) during the days that elections will be held. Compliance with this order could have extinguished Obi’s chances of victory.

The third factor in Obi’s favor is fear of nationwide post-election violence should Nigeria’s election umpire, The Independent National Election Commission (INEC), decide to let “Nigeria happen to it” and proceed to announce a winner independent of the expressed wishes of a plurality of voters. Clearly, Obi’s passionate voters may not accept it and Nigeria could burn for days. The violence could be of unimaginable proportions. The fear of post-election violence could be the device that will keep INEC honest and force it to ensure (to the best of its ability and resources) a transparent, free, fair, and credible elections. The Federal Government has deployed troops and police across the country to ensure that there is no violence. The only assurance against violence in my view will be the honesty of INEC, her officials, and the Buhari administration.  A president who is anxious to leave a legacy of having overseen credible will not in my view condone election malpractices by politicians neither will he condone election corruption by INEC.

There are, of course, other factors going for Peter Obi and his Labour Party. Relative to the other candidates, he has run a very effective, passionate, and persuasive campaign. His simple message “I will Move Nigeria from Consumption to Production (to make) A New Nigeria is Possible” has caught on and resonates with most voters. Obi’s campaign has been helped by improvements in literacy in the country which has made his simple message accessible to loads of new voters who have grown up knowing more of the world through their smartphones and want their country to be like “the overseas”. Emi Lokan with sub-titles like “Recover Nigeria” (from what) and Consolidating Buhari’s achievements (which are they?) is not a message that it appears many objective Nigerian voters are willing to consider.

In less than 72 hours, the waiting will be over and Nigerians will know who their new leaders will be.