Hamas’ Iranian Rockets Rile Up Biden’s Administration; Threaten Israel's Arabs
In the Palestinian territories and Israel, one thing that could overturn the balance of power or expose structural weaknesses is if the Israeli government orders a ground invasion of Gaza. Such a decision could entrap Israel in multiple war fronts: in Gaza, in the Israeli interior, in Lebanon, and perhaps even at the receiving end of direct Iranian precision rocket strikes for the first time in the history of the Iranian-Israeli relationship. The Israeli leadership may see that it has no choice but to seize the opportunity to destroy the military and even civilian infrastructure of Gaza in order to destroy Hamas, contain its home front, and restore its deterrence despite the danger of opening this front. On the other hand, Hamas and Iran may see that the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza provides a unique opportunity to defeat Israel through a barrage of missiles from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, as well as the Palestinian territories, in parallel with the weaponization of Palestinian anger inside Israel, as it takes up arms and rises up for the first time. This is an Iranian-Israeli war that remains of the proxy variety, but its escalation into a direct missile war is on the table in operations rooms. So far, American, Russian, European, and Arab hands are tied, after Israel rejected Egyptian efforts to contain the escalation. The Biden administration is caught off guard and is in a panic, not over the events in Israel-Palestine but over the fate of the nuclear talks with Iran, which the Biden administration and the European powers have made their absolute priority. Tehran is confident that the Vienna talks, which Washington and the European capitals are clinging to, will continue ahead as a separate track unaffected by the developments in Israel. Even if developments prove these conclusions false, the Iranian decision remains to give priority to the emerging opportunity, in its view: the opportunity to destroy Israel, if Israel moves to destroy Gaza to get to Hamas.
The developments on the field are so quick that it is impossible to predict or forecast. As I write these words, Israel may have decided not to launch a ground operation in Gaza or may have launched itt concluding that it cannot back down now to Hamas’s rocket barrage. Indeed, this would not only embolden the internal front in Gaza but also Arab Israelis. Things have gotten out of Israel’s control because it went too far, deploying its killing machine at Al-Aqsa Mosque against civilians and worshippers, and encouraging Israeli extremist settlers to engage in violent assault, revealing the ugliness of their hatred to the whole world.
According to intelligence sources familiar with Iranian, Turkish, and Israeli military preparations, Hamas has recently received 600 missiles from Iran and other military hardware through an unidentified ship, which the sources stressed also contained Turkish military aid. In addition, a huge Iranian weapons shipment has reached Hezbollah via Syria.
The difference between what Ankara wants and what Tehran is doing is that while Turkey wants to lead a global campaign to expose Israel and mobilize support for the Palestinians, Iran only wants to take advantage of the current crisis to bring about the destruction of Israel.
According to intelligence sources familiar with the military and strategic thinking in Tehran, Hezbollah is “ready and mobilized” to heat up the Lebanese front, by firing Iranian rockets on Israel if Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza. The military logic behind this is that Israel cannot withstand attack from two fronts, Gaza and Lebanon. Furthermore, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is ready to launch missiles directly from Iran into Israel.
The logic is motivated by the following elements: First, Israel fears the Lebanese front more than the Gazan front, in view of the advanced Iranian military supplies delivered to Hezbollah. Second, Israel is extremely concerned by the domestic unrest that has started to get out of its control, as well as the implications of a ground operation in Gaza. In the Iranian view, Israel is therefore in a bind. Moreover, the international political climate favors the Iranian logic – so believes Tehran – and therefore this is a unique opportune moment that must be seized.
The Iranian leadership is primarily betting on the inaction of European powers negotiating in Vienna to revive the nuclear deal. These states, Germany, France, and Britain, are obsessed with reviving the nuclear deal no matter the cost, including lifting sanctions on Iran that will allow the IRGC to expedite its foreign policy, including vis-à-vis Israel. Tehran is betting that the European countries will merely express sympathy with the Palestinians and criticize Israel’s operations, while keeping their absolute priority focused on the nuclear deal.
Even if the decision is made to open the Lebanese front, the European powers will only issue rhetorical sympathy with Lebanese sovereignty and criticism of Hezbollah and Hamas’ rockets, without holding Iran directly responsible. The Vienna talks have ‘tamed’ the Europeans, and Tehran knows it and knows how to exploit it to its advantage.
Then there is Russia. Russia, which the Palestinians believe is complicit with Israel and no longer observes its traditional sympathy with the Palestinians, is actually Iran and Hezbollah’s partner in Syria, albeit not necessarily Hamas’ partner. Hamas does not mean much for Russia. Still, Moscow is not qualified to play the role of mediator because it is unwilling to undertake such a role between Israel and the Palestinians.
Instead, the Russians still talk about the international ‘Quartet’, which includes Russia, the US, the European Union, and the United Nations. The Quartet is old news, however, having not achieved anything at the level of Palestinian-Israeli peace-making. Indeed, the Europeans have consistently refused to use any leverage they have over Israeli policies, including sanctions, and contented themselves over the years with giving palliative aids and grants to the Palestinians. Russia has long since withdrawn from the role once played by the Soviet Union, and has become pragmatic, coming closer to Israel and moving further from the Palestinians.
The Russian priority right now is preparing for the meeting between Russian FM Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 19 May. They are expected to discuss their extremely important yet complicated relationship, tackling everything from Ukraine to the summit between President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin slated for 15 June. President Biden will meet with the Europeans and NATO leaders on 7-8 June, a matter of great interest to Moscow. For all these reasons, the developments in Israel-Palestine are not a priority for Russia, although they are a matter of concern for Moscow.
President Joe Biden, however, is forced to give attention to these developments, not only because Israel is a strategic ally of the US and a domestic political issue, but also because how he deals with the Israeli-Palestinian-Iranian entanglement could impact his priorities, namely, reviving the nuclear deal with Iran by way of accepting its condition to exclude its regional activities and missile program from the negotiations. This is the crux of the matter, the acid test for Biden’s Iranian policy and negotiations in Vienna.
One of President Joe Biden’s key problems is that he will not be able to mediate between Iran and Israel to de-escalate the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, or inside Israel itself if these fronts flare up. At present, there is some sympathy with the Palestinians in the US media but this will be completely reversed if matters escalate into a military confrontation between Israel on one side, and Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. The US media will become greatly confused despite its obsession, just like the Biden team’s, with overturning Donald Trump’s policies in Iran, and with restoring the amicable relationship with Tehran woven by Barack Obama.
The Islamic Republic is testing the Biden team and the US media equally on one of the most difficult issues for them, given the automatic bias the US has when it comes to Israel.
Today, the Iranian leadership is telling the US president Joe Biden that it is unafraid of testing him and putting him in the corner of choosing between his support for the Israeli ally and his fixation on reviving the nuclear deal with Iran at any cost. It is assured of itself and wants to stamp with red wax Joe Biden’s pledge not to interfere with its regional activities and missile program. It does so while implicitly wishing Israel would make the mistake of invading Gaza and invite its own destruction.
Another gravely dangerous prospect is that Hamas’ rockets may have activated some segments of Arab Israelis into seeing an internal explosion in Israel as an option because the status quo of racism and discrimination against them is unbearable. The fear here is that Israel would use Hamas’ rockets and attacks into Israel’s interior as a pretext for fateful Israeli measures against the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel, such as mass expulsion to resolve its ‘demographic problem’.
Egypt will inherit a Gaza in ruins if Israel carries out its threat of destroying its infrastructure in a ground invasion and temporary occupation, because ultimately Israel does not want Gaza and sees it as Egypt’s problem.
Lebanon will pay a heavy price if Iran decides to activate Hezbollah to fire up the Lebanese front.
Who will destroy whom and when? And who will bury their heads in the sand hoping this will blow over? While the Biden administration is distracted, Israel is being reckless, and Iran believes this is its golden opportunity to achieve its goals. Everything is on the table.